Morning Update at 0800hrs for Intraday Market Level

[pranayk]

elliott wave count for week ending 20 nov 09

as per ew, we confine our studies to the analysis given last week with wave count from 4th nov low of 4540 till 13th nov high of 5017.

We have assumed that fresh bull move had started from 6th march low of 2539. The 1st up wave was completed on 12 june high of 4693.the 2nd wave a,b,c correction came down till 13 july low of 3919. The 3rd up wave started from the low of 3919 and can move up to cross the all time highs of 6357 .this 3rd major up wave will have 5 sub waves with 3 sub waves up and 2 sub waves flat or down. On 4th august the 1st sub wave of this 3rd wave was completed with the highs around 4731 and the 2nd sub wave abc downward correction started. The 2nd sub wave of the 3rd wave was completed on 19th august at the low of 4353.

The 3rd sub leg of 3rd wave has perhaps been completed at the high of 5181 and the recent fall till 4540 was the 4th sub leg of 3rd wave which may be in the form of a 3,3,5 flat to move up again till around 5150 levels to fall again towards the recent low of 4540 to be followed by resumption of the bull run or the abc zigzag is completed at the low of 4540 and bull run has resumed which only will be confirmed after a decisive cross over of 5052.

Confining to the wave count from the low of 4540 on 4th nov, the 1st set of 5 waves got completed at the 10th nov high of 4944.this was perhaps the 1st new wave. The 2nd wave correction came down till 4860 where the magicpk doji was formed in the hourly charts. From the low of 4860 the 3rd up wave has started and the first up leg has made a high till 11 nov high of 5017.the 2nd down leg of this 3rd wave came down till 12 nov low of 4925 and from there on the mega 3rd leg of this 3rd wave has perhaps started that can go to much higher levels.

While falling from 20 october 09 high of 5181 , nifty fell in a 3 wave abc correction with "a" wave down till 22nd october low of 4969, "b" up wave went up till 5052 and finally "c" down wave came down till 4th nov low of 4540.so, during the present up move, the moment the high of this "b" wave at 5052 is breached, one can confidently go long, as the breach of 5052 will confirm the on set of new up wave from the lows of 4540 that will take nifty to unimaginable higher levels in coming weeks.

 

[pranayk]

fibonacci levels for nifty

the move from the low of 4860 till the high of 5016 covered a distance of 156 points. So, in case of break out of 5116 levels without breaching the lows of 4860,then from the new lows of 4925 on 12 nov, nifty can move up by 1.382,1.5 % 1.618 times of 156 which is the length of the new up 1st leg. In that case as regards the immediate targets for early part of the week, one can expect nifty to move up in stages at least to these fibonacci levels of 5141 as 1.382 times,5159 as 1.5 times and 5177 as 1.618 times.

 

[pranayk]

weekly trading range for week ending 20 nov 09

coming week may see nse index confined within the trading range of 4925 on the lower side and recent oct high of 5181 on the higher side. A decisive breach of 4925 can see nifty sliding down till 4860 levels and a decisive breach of 5052 can see nifty shooting past the october highs of 5181 to test 2nd may 2008 highs of 5298.

 

[pranayk]

plan of action for the week ending 20 nov 09

in case nifty sustains above 4945,then traders must use all intraday falls to go long & in case nifty crosses 5052 levels then traders may add more longs for much higher targets. In case nifty falls below 4945 & more importantly below 4925, then traders can be reminded of their ruthless shorting habits and go on a shorting rampage till 4860 support levels.

 

[pranayk]

markets for 16th nov 09

the new week opens at the back drop of +ve cues both from external markets as well as internally. Dow along with most of the european & asian markets crossed their october highs last week getting ready to move up further to new highs before the end of the year. Internally also news of massive disinvestment of psus kept the indian market buoyant during later part of last week may continue to help the markets in maintaining bullish momentum for the coming week.

Index heavy reliance discovering oil in the cambay basin is a mega bullish news and every intraday fall in reliance is bought into by fund houses & long term investors. If one remembers the start of previous bull market in april 2003, it was only after the news of reliance discovering massive gas reserves in kg basin that that triggered the last bull market & took reliance from a low of 210 from the start of the last bull market to 3300 by end of last bull market. With fresh inflows from big fund houses & fiis, one should not be surprised to see every intraday correction being heavily bought into by big fund houses that may take indices past the october highs of 17457 & 5181 to much higher levels to be in line with other global markets.

For intraday trading on monday, one can normally expect the break out of the indices from last weeks highs. Nifty most likely will shoot past last weeks highs of 5018 to test the critical level around 5052.above 5052, repeated bouts of short covering coupled with buying momentum may take nifty past 5100 levels. However with nasty surprises from asian markets as well as sgx nifty, one can find nifty falling to take support around 4988 followed by 4959 below the pivot at 4964. Nifty may find strong buying support around 4945 levels a decisive breach of which can enthuse the bears to get into massive shorting spree that may take nifty towards the major support around 4925 levels below which bulls will get converted into bears to take nifty towards the make or break support around 4860 levels.

 

[pranayk]

morning update at 8 am 16 nov 09

although asian markets have not shown the expected response to the us markets which closed bullish on friday night, as the day progresses, asian markets are likely to pick up & may close strongly bullish. Although korean & chinese markets may not show that big rise, rest of the asian markets are likely to remain strong for the day.

For indian markets, expect a bullish opening as nifty had consolidated around the 5000 levels for last 2 days. A break out above 5020 nse index levels a little later in the day can take the indices to much higher levels. For intraday trading, traders may boldly go long the moment nse index crosses 5020 levels. In fact an initial cross over of 5010 should be the early indication for a break out move above 5020 but till such time 5020 is not decisively breached one should not be over enthusiastic. Beaten down sectors since last 2 months like realty, cement may show a sharp bounce. Even metals & auto sectors may show a sharp jump upwards after initial sluggishness. As long as nse index sustains above 5000 levels, it is wiser to remain long and add more longs on every intraday decline towards 4960 levels.

 

[pranayk]

CHART ANALYSIS

 

[pranayk]

markets for 17th nov 09


well, the markets finally broke out of the 5000 resistance level and went up till the highs of 5070 and finally closed at 5058 above the critical nifty level of 5052. In next few days one should be fully prepared to see the level of 5200 in nse index eyeing for the earlier given critical level of 5555 in a few weeks only. Not only the recent high of 5181 will insignificant for nifty but also last years 2nd may 08 high of 5299 will easily be breached as was the case of 5000 levels breached recently.

If one has a look at the 2 years weekly chart above, one can clearly see 4750 level the neck line of the reverse h&s formation with head at 2252, decisively breached for the second time last week that can smoothly take nifty past the 5400 levels in quick time. This reverse h&s formation will for sure take nifty above 7000+ levels in coming months. Mondays close at 5058 far above the critical daily closing level of 4997 clears the path for nifty to shoot past next closing resistance of 5151 perhaps this week itself. Traders & investors must make full use of every intraday decline to boldly buy their favorite low priced index stocks in metals, realty, oil & gas production, power, cement & shipping stocks for very good gains in coming days. The way baltic dry index is rising should not be ignored & shipping stocks will sky rocket in no time.

In the weekly chart above, the important weekly indicator slow stochastic has turned up before entering the lower zone that has the potential to take nifty high above 5500 levels in coming weeks. The fresh bull move that started in march 2009 has a long way to go as we are presently in early part of 3rd up wave. Investors must capitalize on beaten down index stocks for handsome gains in coming weeks. In the weekly chart above 50 week ema has decisively breached 200 week ema for the first time after 2003 when the last bull market had started. This cross over single handedly can take nifty to un imaginable heights in coming months

FOR INTRADAY TRADING ON TUESDAY, THE MARKETS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FROM WHERE THEY HAD LEFT ON MONDAY. ON BREACHING OF MONDAYS HIGH OF 5073, THERE IS EVERY POSSIBILITY OG NIFTY CROSSING 5100 LEVELS TO MARCH TOWARDS OCTOBER HIGHS OF 5181 THROUGH A SMALL PAUSE AROUND 5141. TRADERS ARE ADVISED TO BUY ON EVERY INTRADAY DECLINE FOR MUCH HIGHER LEVELS BY MONTH END . INTRADAY CORRECTIONS MUST BE USED AS GOD SENT OPPORTUNITY TO ENTER LONGS KEEPING IN MIND THE BULLISH INDICATIONS PRESENTED BY THE INDICATORS WHICH ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TILL MID DECEMBER WITH SMALL CORRECTIONS IN BETWEEN. CERTAIN STOCK PICKS FOR MEDIUM TO LONG TERM INVESTORS ARE GIVEN:--

1. INDIA CEMENT:-- HAS FALLEN FROM A HIGH OF 320 IN JAN 2008. OCTOBER 09 HIGH WAS 137. PRICE OF 16TH NOV 104.HIGHLY OVER SOLD IN WEEKLY CHARTS. BUY AND HOLD FOR EXCELLENT GAINS. BUT BE CAREFUL FOR INTRADAY TRADING AS THIS BEING A HIGHLY OPERATOR & INSIDER DRIVEN STOCK, YOU WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT OF SHAPE WHETHER YOU BUY OR SHORT DURING INTRADAY TRADING. JUST BUY & HOLD BOLDLY FOR GOOD GAINS IN MEDIUM TO LONG TERM.

2. ABB:-- HAS FALLEN FROM THE HIGH OF 1662 . OCTOBER 09 HIGH WAS AT 828. PRICE AS ON 16TH NOV 773. ANOTHER HIGHLY OPERATOR DRIVEN & INSIDER TRADED STOCK. INTRADAY TRADERS ARE SQUEEZED OUT OF SHAPE BY OPERATORS & INSIDERS WHETHER BOUGHT OR SHORTED. BUY AND HOLD FOR GOOD MEDIUM TO LONG TERM GAINS ON EVERY DECLINE.

3. TATA POWER :-- OCTOBER HIGH WAS AT 1490. PRICE OF 16 NOV 1328. ANOTHER STOCK OF ABOVE CATEGORY OF OPERATORS & INSIDERS. BUY ON EVERY DECLINE AND HOLD FOR GOOD MED TO LONG TERM GAINS.

4.GE SHIPPING:--HAS FALLEN FROM A HIGH OF 581. OCTOBER 09 HIGH WAS 303. WITH BALTIC DRY INDEX LIKELY TO SHOOT UP FURTHER, JUST ACCUMULATE THIS STOCK ON EVERY OPERATOR & INSIDER DRIVEN FALL .

5. BIOCON:--BUY ON EVERY DECLINE FOR GOOD MED TO LONG TERM GAINS.

6. GREAT OFF SHORE:-- HAS FALLEN FROM THE HIGHS OF 1157. OCTOBER 09 HIGH WAS 570. PRICE OF 16TH NOV 520. RATED NUMBER 1 AS THE MOST OPERATOR AND INSIDER INFECTED STOCK EVEN MORE INFECTED THAN INDIA CEMENT & ABB. JUST BUY AND HOLD FOR GREAT GAINS IN MEDIUM TO LONG TERM.

 

[pranayk]

morning update at 8 am 17 nov 09

last night dow gave another rise of 136 points closing at 10406 easily eyeing for the projected target of 11444 by year end. European markets too rose by nearly 1.5% to 2% with dax rising by 2% & uk ftse rising by 1.6%. Brazil continued with is mega bullish run with another 2% rise. Asian markets are very much with their old habit of opening sluggish to spurt later in the day. Markets of japan, korea & singapore although look sluggish at open may shoot up later in the day.

For indian markets, one can expect the cross over of mondays highs of 5073 to move towards 5100+ levels by end of the day although sluggish asian markets may have a temporary slowing impact on indian markets. Like most of the world and asian markets, be sure indian markets will cross october highs of 17493 & 5181 shortly, so make full use of every intraday decline to buy only.

Long nifty future position holders may continue to hold long futures and as the market rises, they can write calls of 5200 and 5300.stock future holders may continue to hold stock futures of pharma, oil & gas exploration, infra stocks. Investors may start to buy cement and shipping stocks on every decline for good gains in near term. The new up wave that has started after the recent fall has the potential to take the indices to much higher levels far above october highs so make full use of every intraday decline.

 

[findvikas]

Hey Pranay...

I did work on your excel but could not get much time to proceed further... I am sharing the partially done excel sheet so that someone can help here. I have a Macro in it named

Public Sub GetHistoricalDataData(ByVal Scrip As String, _
            ByRef YearHigh As Double, ByRef YearLow As Double, _
            ByRef HalfYearHigh As Double, ByRef HalfYearLow As Double, _
            ByRef QuarterHigh As Double, ByRef QuarterLow As Double, _
            ByRef MonthHigh As Double, ByRef MonthLow As Double, _
            ByRef FortNightHigh As Double, ByRef FortNightLow As Double, _
            ByRef WeeklyHigh As Double, ByRef WeeklyLow As Double _
            )

and this is how you will use it to get the historical data

GetHistoricalDataData "TATASTEEL", _
            YearHigh , YearLow , _
            HalfYearHigh , HalfYearLow , _
            QuarterHigh , QuarterLow , _
            MonthHigh , MonthLow , _
            FortNightHigh , FortNightLow , _
            WeeklyHigh , WeeklyLow

all these parameters passed are return variables and will hold the data in them... I am sharing this file so that someone else can help you here to code the rest of part while I will work on a "Market Research Desk" tool that I recently started to work... a combination of quick tools that one might need in every day.. but dont expect any quick turnaround

Have a good day.


www.vikasverma.com/downloads/tracking.zip