Morning Update at 0800hrs for Intraday Market Level
- Thread starter pranayk
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markets for 25 nov 09
on tuesday nifty breached 5086 the low of the 3 in 1 inside bar instead of moving up to breach the high at 5113 of mondays hourly chart. So it fell till 5053 just above the closing support around 5052 levels. Now till such time it moves up & breaches the high of 5113, even though it has made a perfect pin bar at 1 pm with low at 5053, it will continue to remain within the zone of 5050 on the lower side & 5113 on the higher side. In spite of bullish cues from us markets on monday night, nifty failed to breach mondays high of 5153 and instead breached mondays lows at 5064 to test 5053 and also closed at 5090 lower than mondays close of 5103.these are signs of mild weakness in markets which can be attributed to weakness in index heavy reliance as well as expiry week considerations.
For intraday trading on wednesday, in case nifty is unable to move up to negate the double head formation around 5105 levels, then there is every possibility of a fall to breach the neck line around 5047 levels to move down towards fibonacci support levels of 5025 or even 5002 levels. However if nifty moves up to breach the high of 5105 or more importantly 5115, then there is every possibility of nifty shooting up to test 5150+ levels
WITH US MARKETS CLOSED ON THURSDAY AND HAVING A HALF TRADING DAY ON FRIDAY, IT IS NOTHING UNCOMMON WITH US MARKETS TO FALL AFTER A 130 POINT RISE IN DOW ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH TECHNICALLY THE CHARTS OF DOW LOOKS EXTREMELY STRONG FOR FURTHER UP MOVE, BE SURE TO SEE FURTHER FALLS IN DOW TILL END OF THIS WEEK OR TILL THEIR LONG WEEK END. SO IT IS WISER TO START THE DAY WITH SHORTING THE MARKETS WITH QUIT POINT PLACED ABOVE 5115 FOR DOWN SIDE TARGETS OF 5050. IN CASE NSE SPOT BREACHES 5040, THEN ONE CAN AGAIN SHORT BOLDLY FOR TARGETS OF 5025 FOLLOWED BY 5005. HOWEVER IF NSE SPOT CROSSES 5105, THEN IT WILL BE THE FIRST INDICATION OF AN UPWARD BREAK OUT ABOVE 5115 TOWARDS 5151 LEVELS. SO TRADERS MAY BOLDLY GO LONG IN CASE NSE SPOT DECISIVELY BREACHES 5115 FOR TARGETS OF 5151 OR HIGHER LEVELS.
IF ONE HAS A LOOK AT THE INTRADAY CHART ABOVE, ONE WILL NOTICE THAT, AFTER THE METEORIC RISE OF 180 POINTS FROM FRIDAYS LOW OF 4933 TILL MONDAYS HIGH OF 5113, NIFTY IS IN THE PROCESS OF A FLAT FORMATION AND GENERALLY THE FLAT AFTER AN UP MOVE BREAKS OUT IN THE UPWARD DIRECTION ONLY, WHICH MAY COME EITHER ON THE EXPIRY DAY ITSELF OR WITHIN A DAY OR TWO AFTER THE EXPIRY ON THURSDAY. TRADERS & INVESTORS SHOULD MAKE FULL USE OF ALL THE INTRADAY DECLINES TO ACCUMULATE DECEMBER FUTURES IN BEATEN DOWN SECTORS OF INFRA, POWER AND PHARMA STOCKS FOR VERY GOOD GAINS IN DECEMBER.
on tuesday nifty breached 5086 the low of the 3 in 1 inside bar instead of moving up to breach the high at 5113 of mondays hourly chart. So it fell till 5053 just above the closing support around 5052 levels. Now till such time it moves up & breaches the high of 5113, even though it has made a perfect pin bar at 1 pm with low at 5053, it will continue to remain within the zone of 5050 on the lower side & 5113 on the higher side. In spite of bullish cues from us markets on monday night, nifty failed to breach mondays high of 5153 and instead breached mondays lows at 5064 to test 5053 and also closed at 5090 lower than mondays close of 5103.these are signs of mild weakness in markets which can be attributed to weakness in index heavy reliance as well as expiry week considerations.
For intraday trading on wednesday, in case nifty is unable to move up to negate the double head formation around 5105 levels, then there is every possibility of a fall to breach the neck line around 5047 levels to move down towards fibonacci support levels of 5025 or even 5002 levels. However if nifty moves up to breach the high of 5105 or more importantly 5115, then there is every possibility of nifty shooting up to test 5150+ levels
WITH US MARKETS CLOSED ON THURSDAY AND HAVING A HALF TRADING DAY ON FRIDAY, IT IS NOTHING UNCOMMON WITH US MARKETS TO FALL AFTER A 130 POINT RISE IN DOW ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH TECHNICALLY THE CHARTS OF DOW LOOKS EXTREMELY STRONG FOR FURTHER UP MOVE, BE SURE TO SEE FURTHER FALLS IN DOW TILL END OF THIS WEEK OR TILL THEIR LONG WEEK END. SO IT IS WISER TO START THE DAY WITH SHORTING THE MARKETS WITH QUIT POINT PLACED ABOVE 5115 FOR DOWN SIDE TARGETS OF 5050. IN CASE NSE SPOT BREACHES 5040, THEN ONE CAN AGAIN SHORT BOLDLY FOR TARGETS OF 5025 FOLLOWED BY 5005. HOWEVER IF NSE SPOT CROSSES 5105, THEN IT WILL BE THE FIRST INDICATION OF AN UPWARD BREAK OUT ABOVE 5115 TOWARDS 5151 LEVELS. SO TRADERS MAY BOLDLY GO LONG IN CASE NSE SPOT DECISIVELY BREACHES 5115 FOR TARGETS OF 5151 OR HIGHER LEVELS.
IF ONE HAS A LOOK AT THE INTRADAY CHART ABOVE, ONE WILL NOTICE THAT, AFTER THE METEORIC RISE OF 180 POINTS FROM FRIDAYS LOW OF 4933 TILL MONDAYS HIGH OF 5113, NIFTY IS IN THE PROCESS OF A FLAT FORMATION AND GENERALLY THE FLAT AFTER AN UP MOVE BREAKS OUT IN THE UPWARD DIRECTION ONLY, WHICH MAY COME EITHER ON THE EXPIRY DAY ITSELF OR WITHIN A DAY OR TWO AFTER THE EXPIRY ON THURSDAY. TRADERS & INVESTORS SHOULD MAKE FULL USE OF ALL THE INTRADAY DECLINES TO ACCUMULATE DECEMBER FUTURES IN BEATEN DOWN SECTORS OF INFRA, POWER AND PHARMA STOCKS FOR VERY GOOD GAINS IN DECEMBER.
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morning update at 8 am 25 nov 09
last night dow although fell only by 17 points after recovering nearly 70 points from the intraday lows, yet it was the 4th day of falls in last 5 days of trading. European markets which had closed when dow was badly down, were down from .5% to 1% with uk ftse closing down by .6%. Brazil was up nearly .8%. Asian markets have opened mixed sandwiched between chinas mysterious fall of tuesday that may continue for another day or two and dows likely hood of another fall on wednesday before the long week end.
For indian markets, one can wait for an intraday decline towards 5060 levels to enter long in december futures. Nse index is all set for an upward break out & the break out may come suddenly when no one expects it to come. Intraday traders may buy december futures on intraday market declines and as the markets goes up they can write november calls of 5100 by holding on to the december futures.
Future traders may start to accumulate december futures of badly beaten down stocks in the sectors of oil & gas exploration, banking, pharma,metals, power & infra for good gains in next few days. Operators will take these stocks down to flush out weaker hands to facilitate their smooth entry in these beaten down sectors so make full use of intraday declines to accumulate during the second half of the day.
last night dow although fell only by 17 points after recovering nearly 70 points from the intraday lows, yet it was the 4th day of falls in last 5 days of trading. European markets which had closed when dow was badly down, were down from .5% to 1% with uk ftse closing down by .6%. Brazil was up nearly .8%. Asian markets have opened mixed sandwiched between chinas mysterious fall of tuesday that may continue for another day or two and dows likely hood of another fall on wednesday before the long week end.
For indian markets, one can wait for an intraday decline towards 5060 levels to enter long in december futures. Nse index is all set for an upward break out & the break out may come suddenly when no one expects it to come. Intraday traders may buy december futures on intraday market declines and as the markets goes up they can write november calls of 5100 by holding on to the december futures.
Future traders may start to accumulate december futures of badly beaten down stocks in the sectors of oil & gas exploration, banking, pharma,metals, power & infra for good gains in next few days. Operators will take these stocks down to flush out weaker hands to facilitate their smooth entry in these beaten down sectors so make full use of intraday declines to accumulate during the second half of the day.
markets for 26 nov 09
well, in spite of breaking out of the congestion zone above 5080 levels, the indices are reluctant to move up sharply due to expiry as well as month end considerations. Thursday being expiry day, there is every likely hood of very high volatility towards the 2nd half of the day after a dull & range bound first half. Traders should avoid fresh trades till about 2 pm or should only trade around the extremities of the nifty range. This is the only day when no support or resistance will work, hence one can short on the upward breach of the resistance or buy on downward breach of the support with tight quit points. Expiry day is the day of the big operators & no technicals work on the expiry day, hence traders trading contrary to the intraday indications are generally successful.
Swing traders and future holders may make full use of sharp swings in markets & market declines to add december futures in badly beaten down stocks in the sectors of metals, banking, infra, pharma & capital goods for very good gains in december. Purely based on technicals, spot nifty finds resistance around 5145 levels where on can boldly short november futures or november 5100 calls with must quit point around 5160 spot nifty levels. Similarly incase nifty falls below 5100, then one can short around 5095 levels for small but quick gains. Being expiry as well as a highly volatile day, in both cases of long or short, one should book quick profits. Initially spot nifty may be within the tight range of 5121 to 5097 a breach on any side may show a good & quick move in the direction of breach.
well, in spite of breaking out of the congestion zone above 5080 levels, the indices are reluctant to move up sharply due to expiry as well as month end considerations. Thursday being expiry day, there is every likely hood of very high volatility towards the 2nd half of the day after a dull & range bound first half. Traders should avoid fresh trades till about 2 pm or should only trade around the extremities of the nifty range. This is the only day when no support or resistance will work, hence one can short on the upward breach of the resistance or buy on downward breach of the support with tight quit points. Expiry day is the day of the big operators & no technicals work on the expiry day, hence traders trading contrary to the intraday indications are generally successful.
Swing traders and future holders may make full use of sharp swings in markets & market declines to add december futures in badly beaten down stocks in the sectors of metals, banking, infra, pharma & capital goods for very good gains in december. Purely based on technicals, spot nifty finds resistance around 5145 levels where on can boldly short november futures or november 5100 calls with must quit point around 5160 spot nifty levels. Similarly incase nifty falls below 5100, then one can short around 5095 levels for small but quick gains. Being expiry as well as a highly volatile day, in both cases of long or short, one should book quick profits. Initially spot nifty may be within the tight range of 5121 to 5097 a breach on any side may show a good & quick move in the direction of breach.
morning update at 8 am 26 nov 09
although being expiry day, world markets have absolutely no impact on indian markets today, yet dows rise of 30 points before the long week end coupled with brazil up by .9% & uk ftse up by .7% gives more power to expiry operators to play their deceptive game nicely.
Irrespective of the volatility on expiry day, traders may wait for a decline to buy december futures for holding purpose. A fall towards 5100 or wednesdays low of 5080 or at the worst an operator induced fall towards 5050 are solid buying opportunities for december stock futures in the badly beaten down futures of oil & gas exploration, metals, pharma, banking , infra & power sectors. Traders must make full use of this sluggishness & flat markets for a sharp gains in early december.
although being expiry day, world markets have absolutely no impact on indian markets today, yet dows rise of 30 points before the long week end coupled with brazil up by .9% & uk ftse up by .7% gives more power to expiry operators to play their deceptive game nicely.
Irrespective of the volatility on expiry day, traders may wait for a decline to buy december futures for holding purpose. A fall towards 5100 or wednesdays low of 5080 or at the worst an operator induced fall towards 5050 are solid buying opportunities for december stock futures in the badly beaten down futures of oil & gas exploration, metals, pharma, banking , infra & power sectors. Traders must make full use of this sluggishness & flat markets for a sharp gains in early december.
markets for 27 nov 09
the dreadful expiry day ended, proving well beyond imagination that the expiry day movements are contrary to the general consensus. Witty & swift traders with trades contrary to the indicators on expiry day are the winners on this day. The fall during the second half of the day was so swift that nifty breached the critical level at 5052 levels & with tata steel adding its quota of misery, nifty even breached 5000 levels to go down till 4986 to close on a face saving point at 5000.
Presently nifty is much below the lowest point of the week and the way things are going on, one should not be surprised to see the lowest point of last week at 4933 may be threatened by nifty spot, to fall till make or break point around 12th nov low of 4925.before this week, nifty had a 3 weeks of consecutive rise from 3rd nov lows of 4540. So a negative weekly closing below the last weeks closing of 5052 should not bring tensions for the bulls. However bull may like to convert themselves to bears to ruthlessly short nifty in case nifty spot fails to rise above 5050 & breaches the support line at 4974. In that case there is a distinct possibility of nifty falling to test last weeks lows of 4933 & then 12th nov low of 4925.
If one has a closer look at the daily eod chart above, one will notice that the support line joining 12 nov low of 4925 through last weeks low of 4933 comes to around 4975 to 4970 for friday 27th nov. Breach of this support level although is quite tough but if it is decisively breached during actual trading then nothing other than ruthless shorting should be considered to revisit levels of 4933, 4925 followed by mondays visit of 4860.around the support line at 4970 also are the important daily moving averages of 34 dma and 50 dma. 20 dma at 4925 should not take much time to be tested by nifty in case it breaches the critical support level around 4970 .
On the higher side as long as nifty spot remains below 5040 to 5050, shorting is the only way out, as the fall on thursday came with record turn over. However if nifty manages to cross 5040 to 5050 which is highly un likely, then after crossing 5050 there are chances of revisiting 5100 levels to be certainly followed by another tsunami of bear onslaught.
THE ONLY CONSOLATION FOR THE BULLS IS THAT, INDIAN MARKETS HAVE FALLEN BY MORE THAN 2% ON THURSDAY AND THAT TOO WITHOUT CROSSING OCTOBER HIGHS AT 17493 & 5181.COMPARED TO LOWER FALLS IN OTHER WORLD MARKETS MOST OF WHICH HAVE ALREADY CROSSED OCTOBER HIGHS THIS MONTH. SECONDLY US MARKETS BEING CLOSED ON THURSDAY WILL OPEN FOR 1 HOUR ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH HIGHLY MANIPULATIVE DOW FUTURES ARE DOWN BY 2%, IT HAS BEEN DIGESTED IN ANTICIPATION BY INDIAN MARKETS ON THURSDAYS TRADING WHEN INDIAN MARKETS LED THE FALL BY FALLING MORE THAN 2%. SO EVEN IF US MARKETS FALL FOR ABOUT 2% ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY 1 HOUR OF TRADING, NEXT WEEK WILL BE A COMPLETE DIFFERENT STORY.
THURSDAYS FALL IN CHINESE MARKETS AFTER THE DECEPTIVE RISE ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWING THE BIG FALL ON TUESDAY SPEAKS OF ITS MYSTERIOUS NATURE, ONE SHOULD NOT SURPRISED TO SEE ANOTHER DECEPTIVE BIG FALL ON FRIDAY IN CHINESE INDEX TO INDUCE ANOTHER FALL IN ASIAN MARKETS. SO, FOR THE TIME BEING, AS LONG AS SPOT NIFTY REMAINS BELOW 5050 LEVELS, MERCILESS SHORTING ON EVERY INTRADAY RISE IS THE ONLY OPTION LEFT FOR INTRADAY TRADERS EYING FOR TARGETS OF 4933,4925 OR EVEN 4900, WITH MUST QUIT ABOVE 5050 SPOT NIFTY LEVELS..
the dreadful expiry day ended, proving well beyond imagination that the expiry day movements are contrary to the general consensus. Witty & swift traders with trades contrary to the indicators on expiry day are the winners on this day. The fall during the second half of the day was so swift that nifty breached the critical level at 5052 levels & with tata steel adding its quota of misery, nifty even breached 5000 levels to go down till 4986 to close on a face saving point at 5000.
Presently nifty is much below the lowest point of the week and the way things are going on, one should not be surprised to see the lowest point of last week at 4933 may be threatened by nifty spot, to fall till make or break point around 12th nov low of 4925.before this week, nifty had a 3 weeks of consecutive rise from 3rd nov lows of 4540. So a negative weekly closing below the last weeks closing of 5052 should not bring tensions for the bulls. However bull may like to convert themselves to bears to ruthlessly short nifty in case nifty spot fails to rise above 5050 & breaches the support line at 4974. In that case there is a distinct possibility of nifty falling to test last weeks lows of 4933 & then 12th nov low of 4925.
If one has a closer look at the daily eod chart above, one will notice that the support line joining 12 nov low of 4925 through last weeks low of 4933 comes to around 4975 to 4970 for friday 27th nov. Breach of this support level although is quite tough but if it is decisively breached during actual trading then nothing other than ruthless shorting should be considered to revisit levels of 4933, 4925 followed by mondays visit of 4860.around the support line at 4970 also are the important daily moving averages of 34 dma and 50 dma. 20 dma at 4925 should not take much time to be tested by nifty in case it breaches the critical support level around 4970 .
On the higher side as long as nifty spot remains below 5040 to 5050, shorting is the only way out, as the fall on thursday came with record turn over. However if nifty manages to cross 5040 to 5050 which is highly un likely, then after crossing 5050 there are chances of revisiting 5100 levels to be certainly followed by another tsunami of bear onslaught.
THE ONLY CONSOLATION FOR THE BULLS IS THAT, INDIAN MARKETS HAVE FALLEN BY MORE THAN 2% ON THURSDAY AND THAT TOO WITHOUT CROSSING OCTOBER HIGHS AT 17493 & 5181.COMPARED TO LOWER FALLS IN OTHER WORLD MARKETS MOST OF WHICH HAVE ALREADY CROSSED OCTOBER HIGHS THIS MONTH. SECONDLY US MARKETS BEING CLOSED ON THURSDAY WILL OPEN FOR 1 HOUR ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH HIGHLY MANIPULATIVE DOW FUTURES ARE DOWN BY 2%, IT HAS BEEN DIGESTED IN ANTICIPATION BY INDIAN MARKETS ON THURSDAYS TRADING WHEN INDIAN MARKETS LED THE FALL BY FALLING MORE THAN 2%. SO EVEN IF US MARKETS FALL FOR ABOUT 2% ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY 1 HOUR OF TRADING, NEXT WEEK WILL BE A COMPLETE DIFFERENT STORY.
THURSDAYS FALL IN CHINESE MARKETS AFTER THE DECEPTIVE RISE ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWING THE BIG FALL ON TUESDAY SPEAKS OF ITS MYSTERIOUS NATURE, ONE SHOULD NOT SURPRISED TO SEE ANOTHER DECEPTIVE BIG FALL ON FRIDAY IN CHINESE INDEX TO INDUCE ANOTHER FALL IN ASIAN MARKETS. SO, FOR THE TIME BEING, AS LONG AS SPOT NIFTY REMAINS BELOW 5050 LEVELS, MERCILESS SHORTING ON EVERY INTRADAY RISE IS THE ONLY OPTION LEFT FOR INTRADAY TRADERS EYING FOR TARGETS OF 4933,4925 OR EVEN 4900, WITH MUST QUIT ABOVE 5050 SPOT NIFTY LEVELS..
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