Morning Update at 0800hrs for Intraday Market Level
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Markets for 01 dec 09 as expected, indian markets opened gap up above 5000 nifty levels, although went up till 5066 at the back of highly encouraging gdp numbers, yet could not sustain above the critical level of 5050 and started to fall, to finally close at 5033. As per fibonacci levels, nifty after a rise from nov lows of 4540 till nov highs of 5140, fell exactly by 61.8% till 4806 on friday 27th nov. Now from 4806 till 5066 nifty has retraced up by 76.4%. Now most likely nifty may fall till 61.8% to find support around 5012 levels. The start of the gap zone from around 5000 levels may provide strong support to nifty for another bounce. However a decisive breach of 5000 may slide nifty down to cover the entire gap till 4950 levels.
The fact that nifty till last fridays lows of 4806 had retraced down by 61.8%, there is every possibility that the new up move from fridays lows of 4806 in the form of a perfect hammer in daily eod charts, is perhaps the on set of a new up wave that should under normal circumstances exceed october highs of 5181 to move towards 5299 levels in december. So medium to long term investors must make full use of the intraday falls to quietly accumulate badly beaten down stocks in the sectors of oil & gas, pharma, capital goods, metals and infra for very good gains in the days ahead. Great gdp numbers prove the long term buoyancy of indian economy.
On monday nifty has closed at 5033, exactly at the conjunction point of 5,8 & 13 dma. Sustaining above these dma & its cross over may see a good up move to breach mondays highs of 5066 towards 5088 or higher levels. Inability of nifty to sustain above this level of 5033 may weaken nifty to fall towards 5018 and if this is breached then there is a distinct possibility of slipping below 5000 levels. On the higher side, a decisive cross over of 5055 levels may take nifty above mondays high of 5066 levels to test 5090 or even 5100+ levels.
The fact that nifty till last fridays lows of 4806 had retraced down by 61.8%, there is every possibility that the new up move from fridays lows of 4806 in the form of a perfect hammer in daily eod charts, is perhaps the on set of a new up wave that should under normal circumstances exceed october highs of 5181 to move towards 5299 levels in december. So medium to long term investors must make full use of the intraday falls to quietly accumulate badly beaten down stocks in the sectors of oil & gas, pharma, capital goods, metals and infra for very good gains in the days ahead. Great gdp numbers prove the long term buoyancy of indian economy.
On monday nifty has closed at 5033, exactly at the conjunction point of 5,8 & 13 dma. Sustaining above these dma & its cross over may see a good up move to breach mondays highs of 5066 towards 5088 or higher levels. Inability of nifty to sustain above this level of 5033 may weaken nifty to fall towards 5018 and if this is breached then there is a distinct possibility of slipping below 5000 levels. On the higher side, a decisive cross over of 5055 levels may take nifty above mondays high of 5066 levels to test 5090 or even 5100+ levels.
morning update at 8 am 01 dec 09
after a fall of 154 points on friday dow closed flat on monday night with a mild rise of 34 points. European markets which had closed when dow was trading in the negative zone, closed 1% down with uk ftse down by 1%. Brazil closed nearly flat with a .06% loss. Asian markets have opened mixed and may continue to remain mixed to weak with most most of these falling initially with others flat.
For indian markets after the big rise yesterday, one should expect a flat to milder market within the confines of yesterdays range of 5066 to 5000.there is every possibility of a very narrow range day today with a flat to negative bias.
after a fall of 154 points on friday dow closed flat on monday night with a mild rise of 34 points. European markets which had closed when dow was trading in the negative zone, closed 1% down with uk ftse down by 1%. Brazil closed nearly flat with a .06% loss. Asian markets have opened mixed and may continue to remain mixed to weak with most most of these falling initially with others flat.
For indian markets after the big rise yesterday, one should expect a flat to milder market within the confines of yesterdays range of 5066 to 5000.there is every possibility of a very narrow range day today with a flat to negative bias.
markets for 02 dec 09
the solid hammer effect of friday from the fridays lows of 4808 is still continuing and if every thing runs fine without any nasty surprise on wednesday morning, then one should not be surprised to see an attempt by nifty to at least test the post diwali 20th oct high of 5181.the new wave that has started from fridays lows of 4808 after exactly fibonacci 61.8% retracement, has the potential to not only cross 5181 but may go till 2nd may 08 high of 5299 by mid next week.
Starting from fridays lows of 4808, till monday high of 5066 nifty completed the 1st wave . The flat after the gap up open on monday was actually the 2nd wave. 3rd wave has started from the lows of 5017 and should under normal circumstance be higher than 1st wave which was of 258 points from low of 4808 till high of 5066.even if it is equal to the 1st wave then one can expect the target of 5275 from low of 5017. Well, it may not move straight up till 5275 or 5299, there will be some intraday or a day or two of flat or mild correction before reaching 5275 or 5299.in any case a decisive breach of 5181 can see lightening move upwards triggered by massive short covering by swing shorters.
For intraday trading on wednesday, traders may have tuesdays 5 minute doji lows at 5106 and 5085 as supports to add longs. On the higher side nifty may find resistances around 5140 to 5152 that may easily be breached by gap up open to be followed by 5166 & the magic 5181.planted good news on index heavies may even see gap up above 5181 which although looks a bit too ambitious for the bulls, yet highly probable if dow futures or asian markets do not play spoil sports on the morning of wednesday.
Traders & investors should make full use of any pause or intraday decline to quietly accumulate stocks of oil & gas, infra, phama- biotech, capital goods and metals for very good gains in this bull run to new life time highs around the budget of 2010
the solid hammer effect of friday from the fridays lows of 4808 is still continuing and if every thing runs fine without any nasty surprise on wednesday morning, then one should not be surprised to see an attempt by nifty to at least test the post diwali 20th oct high of 5181.the new wave that has started from fridays lows of 4808 after exactly fibonacci 61.8% retracement, has the potential to not only cross 5181 but may go till 2nd may 08 high of 5299 by mid next week.
Starting from fridays lows of 4808, till monday high of 5066 nifty completed the 1st wave . The flat after the gap up open on monday was actually the 2nd wave. 3rd wave has started from the lows of 5017 and should under normal circumstance be higher than 1st wave which was of 258 points from low of 4808 till high of 5066.even if it is equal to the 1st wave then one can expect the target of 5275 from low of 5017. Well, it may not move straight up till 5275 or 5299, there will be some intraday or a day or two of flat or mild correction before reaching 5275 or 5299.in any case a decisive breach of 5181 can see lightening move upwards triggered by massive short covering by swing shorters.
For intraday trading on wednesday, traders may have tuesdays 5 minute doji lows at 5106 and 5085 as supports to add longs. On the higher side nifty may find resistances around 5140 to 5152 that may easily be breached by gap up open to be followed by 5166 & the magic 5181.planted good news on index heavies may even see gap up above 5181 which although looks a bit too ambitious for the bulls, yet highly probable if dow futures or asian markets do not play spoil sports on the morning of wednesday.
Traders & investors should make full use of any pause or intraday decline to quietly accumulate stocks of oil & gas, infra, phama- biotech, capital goods and metals for very good gains in this bull run to new life time highs around the budget of 2010
morning update at 8 am 02 dec 09
dow having tested 10500 levels, corrected by 30 points to close at 10471 with a gain of 126 points. European markets had a highly bullish day with ftse rising by 2.3%, dax by 2.7% & cac by 2.6%.brazil too continued to move above october highs of 67540 to move up & close at 68546 with a daily gain of another 2%. Asian markets have opened strongly and likely to remain very strong during initial hours but would give up some of their gains just before opening of indian markets.
For indian markets one can expect another gap up opening and nifty in all probabilities may move up from where it had left on tuesday to try & test the all important october highs of 5181.since indian markets are the only ones to be trading much below october highs when compared with the markets of us, european, brazil and most asian indices, there is every possibility of both sensex and nifty crossing october highs of 17493 & 5181 either today or tomorrow.
Every intraday correction should be used by long & medium term investors to enter long positions in badly beaten down stocks in the sectors of oil & gas, infra, power, pharma, biotech, capital goods & metals for handsome gains in coming days. Intraday traders should wait for intraday declines or pause to enter long for good intraday profit. More long positions may be added above 5181 levels.
dow having tested 10500 levels, corrected by 30 points to close at 10471 with a gain of 126 points. European markets had a highly bullish day with ftse rising by 2.3%, dax by 2.7% & cac by 2.6%.brazil too continued to move above october highs of 67540 to move up & close at 68546 with a daily gain of another 2%. Asian markets have opened strongly and likely to remain very strong during initial hours but would give up some of their gains just before opening of indian markets.
For indian markets one can expect another gap up opening and nifty in all probabilities may move up from where it had left on tuesday to try & test the all important october highs of 5181.since indian markets are the only ones to be trading much below october highs when compared with the markets of us, european, brazil and most asian indices, there is every possibility of both sensex and nifty crossing october highs of 17493 & 5181 either today or tomorrow.
Every intraday correction should be used by long & medium term investors to enter long positions in badly beaten down stocks in the sectors of oil & gas, infra, power, pharma, biotech, capital goods & metals for handsome gains in coming days. Intraday traders should wait for intraday declines or pause to enter long for good intraday profit. More long positions may be added above 5181 levels.
markets for 03 dec 09
well, it is commonly said when every one including news channels become bullish, the markets behave the other way. That is what exactly happened on wednesday. Nifty opened gap up & from the gap up high of 5161 continuously kept on correcting within a narrow band with the low at 5111 and opening high at 5161. As can be seen in the intraday chart above, nifty after the hammered up rise since friday, has gone up from the fridays lows of 4808 till wednesdays high of 5161 almost without any correction. Hence one should not be surprised to see a flat type pause or a correction in the form of a,b,c zigzag.
If one has a look at the intraday chart above, one can clearly notice that nifty is confined within a flat after the gap up open. This flat in the form of a rectangle may continue for another day or two before the break out comes. As can be seen in the chart, the flat is perhaps the 4th wave & a break out of the rectangle may take nifty above 5200 levels towards 5275 or 2nd may 08 highs of 5299 as the 5th wave as shown in the intraday chart above. However before the break out occurs, there will be many more operators play, through which many will lose their patience & will be sunk into the depth & many will confidently hold on to the longs and add more longs trusting the long term bull run.
For intraday trading on thursday, there is every possibility of nifty to be confined within the rectangular range before the break outs comes. Operators action through index heavies may drag down nifty into the breaking point towards 5077 levels to flush out weaker hands & once everyone start to think that some more correction may come, the same operators will lift the markets to break out of the congestion zone. On the higher side, a decisive breach above 5147 spot nifty levels may be the initial indications of the break out on the higher side which only will be confirmed after crossing with heavy volume the highs of 5161 above which traders may add more long positions.
On the lower side, a breach of 5111 should invite bears to display their shorting power that may take nifty down towards 5100 or 5090 levels followed by make or break support at 5077 levels. In case nifty breaches 5077, one may be reminded of his last weeks ruthless shorting action to boldly short nifty to hammer it down out of shape, towards much lower levels. However keeping in mind price action of wednesday as well as the wave count, the chances of an upward break out looks brighter on thursday.
well, it is commonly said when every one including news channels become bullish, the markets behave the other way. That is what exactly happened on wednesday. Nifty opened gap up & from the gap up high of 5161 continuously kept on correcting within a narrow band with the low at 5111 and opening high at 5161. As can be seen in the intraday chart above, nifty after the hammered up rise since friday, has gone up from the fridays lows of 4808 till wednesdays high of 5161 almost without any correction. Hence one should not be surprised to see a flat type pause or a correction in the form of a,b,c zigzag.
If one has a look at the intraday chart above, one can clearly notice that nifty is confined within a flat after the gap up open. This flat in the form of a rectangle may continue for another day or two before the break out comes. As can be seen in the chart, the flat is perhaps the 4th wave & a break out of the rectangle may take nifty above 5200 levels towards 5275 or 2nd may 08 highs of 5299 as the 5th wave as shown in the intraday chart above. However before the break out occurs, there will be many more operators play, through which many will lose their patience & will be sunk into the depth & many will confidently hold on to the longs and add more longs trusting the long term bull run.
For intraday trading on thursday, there is every possibility of nifty to be confined within the rectangular range before the break outs comes. Operators action through index heavies may drag down nifty into the breaking point towards 5077 levels to flush out weaker hands & once everyone start to think that some more correction may come, the same operators will lift the markets to break out of the congestion zone. On the higher side, a decisive breach above 5147 spot nifty levels may be the initial indications of the break out on the higher side which only will be confirmed after crossing with heavy volume the highs of 5161 above which traders may add more long positions.
On the lower side, a breach of 5111 should invite bears to display their shorting power that may take nifty down towards 5100 or 5090 levels followed by make or break support at 5077 levels. In case nifty breaches 5077, one may be reminded of his last weeks ruthless shorting action to boldly short nifty to hammer it down out of shape, towards much lower levels. However keeping in mind price action of wednesday as well as the wave count, the chances of an upward break out looks brighter on thursday.
Sir can you also add a factor in your analysis that adds the coupling effect of US market on our market for the past 2 weeks you can find a high correlation and since US markets closed negative I believe we can see initally a sell pressure on Nifty and at 1230 when the European markets open, that factor can be added to it. My expectation is Japan opening Up whereas rest of the markets opening Down. Also it would be important to keep a close eye on Dollar if it strengthens it can signal a weak FII inflow however if $ falls more inflow as FIIs have opportunity to make double profit thanks to the dollar carry trade.
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