weekly general markets analysis for week ending 11th dec 09
in spite of dubai crisis blown out of proportion that ruined the likely good effects of great gdp numbers & generated fear amongst trading community during the last week of november, the markets bounced back against all odds to register a 3% gain. Although nifty managed just only to touch the october highs of 5181, the cleaner index sensex failed to do so by going only up to 17361 & failed to reach the level of 17493.although fears of dollar gaining strength are gaining momentum & it will rise, indian markets are likely to continue with the bull run during the month of december & there is every possibility of both sensex & nifty to rise upwards to decisively breach the yearly highs of 17397 & 5181 to move higher up towards may 08 highs of 17735 & 5299.
If one analyses the up move of nifty from the lows of march 09, one will notice that from the march 09 lows of 2539 till sept 09 highs of 5087, nifty had made substantial up move for 7 months and after that for next 3 months, the entire oct, nov and till 4th december, nifty could barely manage to rise by only 94 points till 5181 which indicates that it is in a flat or consolidation phase with the upper side resistance of 5181 that was attained on 20 oct 09.generally a flat or consolidation pattern of this nature breaks out on the upper side to resume the up move. The longer the duration of the flat the more violent will be the upward break out. So, long to medium term investors should make full use of the intraday or a day or two of corrections in the markets to accumulate fundamentally sound but badly beaten down stocks in the sectors of telecom, infra & realty, power, oil & gas, pharma & biotech, capital goods, banks and metals for very good gains in the medium to long term.
For the trading week ending 11 december, as long as nifty does not fall to close below fridays low of 5081 on a daily basis & fibonacci support of 4950 on a weekly basis, every intraday or a day or two of falls will be bought into by the bulls. Similarly a decisive cross over and sustaining above 5181 will strengthen nifty to a great extent that will see heavy buying by side lined & waiting bulls & fund houses. A decisive breach of 5181 will also trigger massive short covering by the bears & swing shorters since october, that will trigger a sharp up move towards may 08 highs of 5299. So, short term traders should keep in mind the 100 point range in nifty spot with breach of 5081 to ruthlessly short and 5181 to boldly go long with reasonable must quit point or stop losses for good trading gains during the week.
Like dubai crisis, there will be many more negative news for stock markets like dollar rise for a day or two, or a well coordinated & planted weekly economic data in us, sudden operator driven fall in commodities etc to pull down the markets to the liking levels of international operators, but all these operators actions may have a temporary impact on indian equity markets & should be boldly taken advantage of to buy only for good medium to long term gains
in spite of dubai crisis blown out of proportion that ruined the likely good effects of great gdp numbers & generated fear amongst trading community during the last week of november, the markets bounced back against all odds to register a 3% gain. Although nifty managed just only to touch the october highs of 5181, the cleaner index sensex failed to do so by going only up to 17361 & failed to reach the level of 17493.although fears of dollar gaining strength are gaining momentum & it will rise, indian markets are likely to continue with the bull run during the month of december & there is every possibility of both sensex & nifty to rise upwards to decisively breach the yearly highs of 17397 & 5181 to move higher up towards may 08 highs of 17735 & 5299.
If one analyses the up move of nifty from the lows of march 09, one will notice that from the march 09 lows of 2539 till sept 09 highs of 5087, nifty had made substantial up move for 7 months and after that for next 3 months, the entire oct, nov and till 4th december, nifty could barely manage to rise by only 94 points till 5181 which indicates that it is in a flat or consolidation phase with the upper side resistance of 5181 that was attained on 20 oct 09.generally a flat or consolidation pattern of this nature breaks out on the upper side to resume the up move. The longer the duration of the flat the more violent will be the upward break out. So, long to medium term investors should make full use of the intraday or a day or two of corrections in the markets to accumulate fundamentally sound but badly beaten down stocks in the sectors of telecom, infra & realty, power, oil & gas, pharma & biotech, capital goods, banks and metals for very good gains in the medium to long term.
For the trading week ending 11 december, as long as nifty does not fall to close below fridays low of 5081 on a daily basis & fibonacci support of 4950 on a weekly basis, every intraday or a day or two of falls will be bought into by the bulls. Similarly a decisive cross over and sustaining above 5181 will strengthen nifty to a great extent that will see heavy buying by side lined & waiting bulls & fund houses. A decisive breach of 5181 will also trigger massive short covering by the bears & swing shorters since october, that will trigger a sharp up move towards may 08 highs of 5299. So, short term traders should keep in mind the 100 point range in nifty spot with breach of 5081 to ruthlessly short and 5181 to boldly go long with reasonable must quit point or stop losses for good trading gains during the week.
Like dubai crisis, there will be many more negative news for stock markets like dollar rise for a day or two, or a well coordinated & planted weekly economic data in us, sudden operator driven fall in commodities etc to pull down the markets to the liking levels of international operators, but all these operators actions may have a temporary impact on indian equity markets & should be boldly taken advantage of to buy only for good medium to long term gains
