Morning Update at 0800hrs for Intraday Market Level
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weekly general markets analysis for week ending 27 nov 09
the week started with an encouraging note on monday 16th nov & ended with a bang on friday 20 nov bringing cheers for the bulls with the hope that perhaps this week may make a new yearly high beating october highs of 5181.last week saw the double head formation around 5080 levels and the neck line around 5010 to 5005 was breached to slide till the measured level of 4940 to 4935 to show a remarkable week end intraday bounce not seen for many weeks. This rebound of friday also strengthened the swing low of 12th nov at 4925. The bounce of friday has opened the flood gates of hope for a decisive break out of the congestion zone around 5070 to 5095.this weeks closing was the 3rd consecutive +ve week & month end considerations with the overhead expiry week coupled with us markets closed on thursday 26th may be the dampeners for the week.
Although nifty has been consistently closing above or around the critical 5052 levels which was the high of the "b" wave of the abc correction that brought down nifty from the october 09 high of 5181 to nov low of 4540, yet it has not shown a decisive break out of the congestion zone around 5070 to 5095 levels. He massive large bodied green candle of friday having an hourly body of 82 points was the largest hourly green body seen since last 2 months. This wrb green candle at 1 pm of friday was with massive volume which signifies the possibility of continuation of the up surge that may form a break out pattern on a decisive cross over of 5095 nifty levels early this week. With no negative news emanating from within the country, although chart patterns look highly bullish & technically the markets look extremely strong for a big break out to higher levels, yet it will again be the condition of external markets that will decide the fate of indian markets again this week
the week started with an encouraging note on monday 16th nov & ended with a bang on friday 20 nov bringing cheers for the bulls with the hope that perhaps this week may make a new yearly high beating october highs of 5181.last week saw the double head formation around 5080 levels and the neck line around 5010 to 5005 was breached to slide till the measured level of 4940 to 4935 to show a remarkable week end intraday bounce not seen for many weeks. This rebound of friday also strengthened the swing low of 12th nov at 4925. The bounce of friday has opened the flood gates of hope for a decisive break out of the congestion zone around 5070 to 5095.this weeks closing was the 3rd consecutive +ve week & month end considerations with the overhead expiry week coupled with us markets closed on thursday 26th may be the dampeners for the week.
Although nifty has been consistently closing above or around the critical 5052 levels which was the high of the "b" wave of the abc correction that brought down nifty from the october 09 high of 5181 to nov low of 4540, yet it has not shown a decisive break out of the congestion zone around 5070 to 5095 levels. He massive large bodied green candle of friday having an hourly body of 82 points was the largest hourly green body seen since last 2 months. This wrb green candle at 1 pm of friday was with massive volume which signifies the possibility of continuation of the up surge that may form a break out pattern on a decisive cross over of 5095 nifty levels early this week. With no negative news emanating from within the country, although chart patterns look highly bullish & technically the markets look extremely strong for a big break out to higher levels, yet it will again be the condition of external markets that will decide the fate of indian markets again this week
weekly technical analysis for week ending 27 nov 09 t
here is not much of a change to our analysis of last week.
Technically, the markets look extremely bullish for further up move. During the month of november, indices have breached the lows of both october and september month also .so, dont be surprised to see indices moving up to breach the highs of both these months with sept high at 5087 & oct high at 5181 by end of the current month. There are no changes to the indications given for the monthly charts last week which are as follows:-
the perfect doji of august month with its top at 16002 & 4744 having been decisively crossed in september should at least see 3 months of higher highs taking it to november end to make higher highs every month, even it can go to consecutive 5 or 8 months of higher highs in monthly charts. Both simple & exponential 20 month moving average coming from above the 50 month ma and turning upwards without breaching 50 mma is a mega bullish signal for the long term.8 month simple moving average coming from below 20 month sms and breaching it to move up above both 13 month & 20 month sma during the month. Also 13 month ems has breached 21 month ema & is moving up. These ma cross overs are occurring for the first time after the onset of previous bull market in april 2003. This ma cross over in monthly charts has the potential for another 3 to 5 years of bull run to which long & medium term investors should take full advantage of as we are presently in the initial stages of a mega bull market that started in march 09 & may go up till 2013 as per long term monthly charts. Hard core short term traders should keep at least half of their money for long term investments in their favorite stocks and carry on with short term or day trading both on the long & short side as per short term market movements only in balance half of the money to take full advantage of long term bull market.
The weekly charts too have started to generate bullish signals during the up move for last three weeks after the 2 weeks of big falls from 5181 till 4540.weekly stochastic without entering the lower zone has started to turn up which is a strong signal for another big up move. Similarly weekly adx also is generating a strong bullish signal. Amongst all the weekly indicators, weekly ichimoku is showing the strongest signals for resumptions of bull run for new highs. Weekly relative volatility index has shown signs of resumption of up move. Weekly nvi rising continuously non stop even during the fall from highs of 5181 till lows of 4540, indicates heavy hidden buying by informed sources on index heavies that will take the markets to much higher levels.
As was mentioned during previous weeks certain mega bullish weekly indications like 50 week ema decisively crossing 200 week ema in the 5 year long term weekly charts in it self can single handedly take the indices above the all time highs of 21207 & 6357 in coming weeks. Secondly, the clear cup handle formation between 12 june & 28 august with base at 3919 & neck line decisively breached around 4744 can easily take nifty to cover the depth of the cup by moving up till 5555 magic levels. A much larger reverse head & solder formation being made by joining the solder line between the weekly highs of 4680 for week ending 20 june 08 & high of 4731 for week ending 7th august 09 with head at the october 08 lows of 2252. These are strong long term bullish signals that encourages long & medium term investors to boldly go long on every decline of markets for super gains in coming months.
The indicators in daily charts continue to generate bullish signals. During the last 2 weeks of october and first week of november, both sensex & nifty had breached the 3 important moving averages of 20,50 & 100 dma & had threatened to test 200 dma but solid bounce from 4th nov took the indices above all these 3 moving averages. During the week ending 20 nov, nifty after a fall on thursday although breached 50 dma at 4947, but bounced back on friday to close at 5052 high above both 20 & 50 dma. Other critical indicators like daily ichimoku, nvi and relative volatility index are all indicating further up move.
So, keeping in mind all these +ve indications in the charts, unless there are nasty surprises thrown from us & other world markets, there is every possibility of further up move during the week to cross october highs of 17457 & 5181 to make new yearly highs during the coming week. Investors & traders must make full use of these +ve indications to buy & hold on every intraday decline of nifty.
here is not much of a change to our analysis of last week.
Technically, the markets look extremely bullish for further up move. During the month of november, indices have breached the lows of both october and september month also .so, dont be surprised to see indices moving up to breach the highs of both these months with sept high at 5087 & oct high at 5181 by end of the current month. There are no changes to the indications given for the monthly charts last week which are as follows:-
the perfect doji of august month with its top at 16002 & 4744 having been decisively crossed in september should at least see 3 months of higher highs taking it to november end to make higher highs every month, even it can go to consecutive 5 or 8 months of higher highs in monthly charts. Both simple & exponential 20 month moving average coming from above the 50 month ma and turning upwards without breaching 50 mma is a mega bullish signal for the long term.8 month simple moving average coming from below 20 month sms and breaching it to move up above both 13 month & 20 month sma during the month. Also 13 month ems has breached 21 month ema & is moving up. These ma cross overs are occurring for the first time after the onset of previous bull market in april 2003. This ma cross over in monthly charts has the potential for another 3 to 5 years of bull run to which long & medium term investors should take full advantage of as we are presently in the initial stages of a mega bull market that started in march 09 & may go up till 2013 as per long term monthly charts. Hard core short term traders should keep at least half of their money for long term investments in their favorite stocks and carry on with short term or day trading both on the long & short side as per short term market movements only in balance half of the money to take full advantage of long term bull market.
The weekly charts too have started to generate bullish signals during the up move for last three weeks after the 2 weeks of big falls from 5181 till 4540.weekly stochastic without entering the lower zone has started to turn up which is a strong signal for another big up move. Similarly weekly adx also is generating a strong bullish signal. Amongst all the weekly indicators, weekly ichimoku is showing the strongest signals for resumptions of bull run for new highs. Weekly relative volatility index has shown signs of resumption of up move. Weekly nvi rising continuously non stop even during the fall from highs of 5181 till lows of 4540, indicates heavy hidden buying by informed sources on index heavies that will take the markets to much higher levels.
As was mentioned during previous weeks certain mega bullish weekly indications like 50 week ema decisively crossing 200 week ema in the 5 year long term weekly charts in it self can single handedly take the indices above the all time highs of 21207 & 6357 in coming weeks. Secondly, the clear cup handle formation between 12 june & 28 august with base at 3919 & neck line decisively breached around 4744 can easily take nifty to cover the depth of the cup by moving up till 5555 magic levels. A much larger reverse head & solder formation being made by joining the solder line between the weekly highs of 4680 for week ending 20 june 08 & high of 4731 for week ending 7th august 09 with head at the october 08 lows of 2252. These are strong long term bullish signals that encourages long & medium term investors to boldly go long on every decline of markets for super gains in coming months.
The indicators in daily charts continue to generate bullish signals. During the last 2 weeks of october and first week of november, both sensex & nifty had breached the 3 important moving averages of 20,50 & 100 dma & had threatened to test 200 dma but solid bounce from 4th nov took the indices above all these 3 moving averages. During the week ending 20 nov, nifty after a fall on thursday although breached 50 dma at 4947, but bounced back on friday to close at 5052 high above both 20 & 50 dma. Other critical indicators like daily ichimoku, nvi and relative volatility index are all indicating further up move.
So, keeping in mind all these +ve indications in the charts, unless there are nasty surprises thrown from us & other world markets, there is every possibility of further up move during the week to cross october highs of 17457 & 5181 to make new yearly highs during the coming week. Investors & traders must make full use of these +ve indications to buy & hold on every intraday decline of nifty.
elliott wave count for week ending 27 nov 09
as per ew, we confine our studies to the analysis given last week with wave count from 4th nov low of 4540 till week ending 20th nov high of 5080.
We have assumed that fresh bull move had started from 6th march low of 2539. The 1st up wave was completed on 12 june high of 4693.the 2nd wave a,b,c correction came down till 13 july low of 3919. The 3rd up wave started from the low of 3919 and can move up to cross the all time highs of 6357 .this 3rd major up wave will have 5 sub waves with 3 sub waves up and 2 sub waves flat or down. Till now we are perhaps still in the 1st sub leg of this mega 3rd wave. Of this 1st sub leg, on 4th august the 1st sub sub leg of the 1st sub wave of this 3rd wave was completed with the highs around 4731 and the 2nd sub sub leg abc downward correction started. The 2nd sub sub leg of 1st sub leg of the 3rd wave was completed on 19th august at the low of 4353.
The 3rd sub sub leg of 1st sub leg of 3rd wave has perhaps been completed at the high of 5181 and the recent fall till 3rd nov 4540 was the 4th sub sub leg of 1st sub leg of 3rd wave. From the low of 4540 the last the 5th sub sub leg of 1st sub leg had started which under normal circumstances should go higher than 5181 to complete the 1st sub leg of mega 3rd wave.
Confining to the wave count from the low of 4540 on 4th nov, the 1st set of 5 waves got completed at the 10th nov high of 4944.this was perhaps the 1st new wave. The 2nd wave correction came down till 4860 where the magic doji was formed in the hourly charts. From the low of 4860 the 2nd set of 5 waves as 3rd up wave had started and the first up sub leg has made a high till 11 nov high of 5017.the 2nd down sub leg of this 3rd wave came down till 12 nov low of 4925 and from there on the 3rd sub leg of this 3rd wave went up till 5181 after which the 4th down sub sub leg came down till friday 20 nov lows of 4933. Now the 5th sub sub leg under normal circum should go above 5080 to cross 5100 levels then pause to make the final attempt to cross october highs of 5181 to head for 2nd may 08 highs of 5299 during dec 09 where the 1st sub leg of the mega 3rd wave from the lows of 3919 will end.
as per ew, we confine our studies to the analysis given last week with wave count from 4th nov low of 4540 till week ending 20th nov high of 5080.
We have assumed that fresh bull move had started from 6th march low of 2539. The 1st up wave was completed on 12 june high of 4693.the 2nd wave a,b,c correction came down till 13 july low of 3919. The 3rd up wave started from the low of 3919 and can move up to cross the all time highs of 6357 .this 3rd major up wave will have 5 sub waves with 3 sub waves up and 2 sub waves flat or down. Till now we are perhaps still in the 1st sub leg of this mega 3rd wave. Of this 1st sub leg, on 4th august the 1st sub sub leg of the 1st sub wave of this 3rd wave was completed with the highs around 4731 and the 2nd sub sub leg abc downward correction started. The 2nd sub sub leg of 1st sub leg of the 3rd wave was completed on 19th august at the low of 4353.
The 3rd sub sub leg of 1st sub leg of 3rd wave has perhaps been completed at the high of 5181 and the recent fall till 3rd nov 4540 was the 4th sub sub leg of 1st sub leg of 3rd wave. From the low of 4540 the last the 5th sub sub leg of 1st sub leg had started which under normal circumstances should go higher than 5181 to complete the 1st sub leg of mega 3rd wave.
Confining to the wave count from the low of 4540 on 4th nov, the 1st set of 5 waves got completed at the 10th nov high of 4944.this was perhaps the 1st new wave. The 2nd wave correction came down till 4860 where the magic doji was formed in the hourly charts. From the low of 4860 the 2nd set of 5 waves as 3rd up wave had started and the first up sub leg has made a high till 11 nov high of 5017.the 2nd down sub leg of this 3rd wave came down till 12 nov low of 4925 and from there on the 3rd sub leg of this 3rd wave went up till 5181 after which the 4th down sub sub leg came down till friday 20 nov lows of 4933. Now the 5th sub sub leg under normal circum should go above 5080 to cross 5100 levels then pause to make the final attempt to cross october highs of 5181 to head for 2nd may 08 highs of 5299 during dec 09 where the 1st sub leg of the mega 3rd wave from the lows of 3919 will end.
weekly trading range for week ending 27 nov 09
for the coming week , with expiry falling on 26th,the trading range for the week may be confined within the broad range of 5095 on the higher side and 4925 on the lower side. A decisive breach of 5095 on the higher side can easily see nifty shooting past october highs of 5181 to move towards 5200 or even 2nd may 08 highs of 5299 levels. On the lower side a decisive breach of 4925 may slide nifty towards 4860 levels. The chances of a higher side break out looks brighter at the moment.
for the coming week , with expiry falling on 26th,the trading range for the week may be confined within the broad range of 5095 on the higher side and 4925 on the lower side. A decisive breach of 5095 on the higher side can easily see nifty shooting past october highs of 5181 to move towards 5200 or even 2nd may 08 highs of 5299 levels. On the lower side a decisive breach of 4925 may slide nifty towards 4860 levels. The chances of a higher side break out looks brighter at the moment.
plan of action for the week ending 27 nov 09
traders may have 5020 as quit point and remain long for the week. In case of a decisive cross over of 5095 to 5100 by nifty spot, traders may add more longs of december future for targets of 5181 to 5200 or even higher levels. On the lower side, in case nifty breaches 5020, then traders may like to remind themselves of their ruthless shorting power to boldly short nifty towards 4980 or lower levels. However should nifty fall to breach the critical level of 4925 then traders may go on a shorting rampage to hammer nifty out of shape towards 4860 levels. Instead of applying tight stop losses to see it getting triggered every time, it is wiser to write options to hedge futures.
traders may have 5020 as quit point and remain long for the week. In case of a decisive cross over of 5095 to 5100 by nifty spot, traders may add more longs of december future for targets of 5181 to 5200 or even higher levels. On the lower side, in case nifty breaches 5020, then traders may like to remind themselves of their ruthless shorting power to boldly short nifty towards 4980 or lower levels. However should nifty fall to breach the critical level of 4925 then traders may go on a shorting rampage to hammer nifty out of shape towards 4860 levels. Instead of applying tight stop losses to see it getting triggered every time, it is wiser to write options to hedge futures.
markets for 23th nov 09
the new week opens at the back drop of a solid blast off on friday afternoon with nifty bouncing back from the critical support around 4925 levels to again close above 5052 levels. Monday also opens at the back drop od 3 consecutive days of falls in dow to which asian markets may react on monday by opening in the red that may impact the overall bullish out look expected of indian markets after the mega surge on friday.
Besides likely hood of weakness in some of the asian markets including sgs nifty that may see a flat to negative opening of indian markets, the fact that both sensex & nifty have closed near the highest point of the day on friday leaves some suspicion that the "near high of the day" closing was perhaps a trap led for the bulls. In any case, irrespective of the trap set or likely weak ness to be shown by asian markets, technically the indices look extremely strong for a decisive break out of the congestion zone around 5080 to 5095 levels. So, in case there are no nasty surprises from asian markets or sgx nifty, then one cane safely assume the continuation of the up move that has started from friday after noon towards higher levels breaching the congestion zone around 5080 to 5095 levels.
For intraday trading on monday, nifty finds support around 5037 levels below which 5020 followed by 5000 levels which will invite heavy buying interest. The fact that nifty has moved up in one go from the lows of 4933 to 5063 on friday, a flat opening or delay in the continuance of the up move may induce the feeling of bull trap that may quickly trigger profit booking to bring nifty down towards 5000 levels. However if the high volume sharp up move on friday afternoon was genuine, then irrespective of minor weakness in asian markets or sgx nifty, indian markets will move up towards october highs of 5181 in next few days, to be in line with other world markets like usa, europe and most of asian markets who had already breached their october highs during first half of november. So, if everything is just ok on monday morning, then one can expect the continuation of the up move with a mild pause.
Although cement sector has resumed its up move, india cement can again be shorted by intraday cash traders with a strict quit point above 106 levels, as the crossover of 106 can see a surge till 110 levels by expiry. Infra, capital goods & power sectors which have been mercilessly hammered out of shape may lead the next up move & can be accumulated on further declines by long to medium term investors.
the new week opens at the back drop of a solid blast off on friday afternoon with nifty bouncing back from the critical support around 4925 levels to again close above 5052 levels. Monday also opens at the back drop od 3 consecutive days of falls in dow to which asian markets may react on monday by opening in the red that may impact the overall bullish out look expected of indian markets after the mega surge on friday.
Besides likely hood of weakness in some of the asian markets including sgs nifty that may see a flat to negative opening of indian markets, the fact that both sensex & nifty have closed near the highest point of the day on friday leaves some suspicion that the "near high of the day" closing was perhaps a trap led for the bulls. In any case, irrespective of the trap set or likely weak ness to be shown by asian markets, technically the indices look extremely strong for a decisive break out of the congestion zone around 5080 to 5095 levels. So, in case there are no nasty surprises from asian markets or sgx nifty, then one cane safely assume the continuation of the up move that has started from friday after noon towards higher levels breaching the congestion zone around 5080 to 5095 levels.
For intraday trading on monday, nifty finds support around 5037 levels below which 5020 followed by 5000 levels which will invite heavy buying interest. The fact that nifty has moved up in one go from the lows of 4933 to 5063 on friday, a flat opening or delay in the continuance of the up move may induce the feeling of bull trap that may quickly trigger profit booking to bring nifty down towards 5000 levels. However if the high volume sharp up move on friday afternoon was genuine, then irrespective of minor weakness in asian markets or sgx nifty, indian markets will move up towards october highs of 5181 in next few days, to be in line with other world markets like usa, europe and most of asian markets who had already breached their october highs during first half of november. So, if everything is just ok on monday morning, then one can expect the continuation of the up move with a mild pause.
Although cement sector has resumed its up move, india cement can again be shorted by intraday cash traders with a strict quit point above 106 levels, as the crossover of 106 can see a surge till 110 levels by expiry. Infra, capital goods & power sectors which have been mercilessly hammered out of shape may lead the next up move & can be accumulated on further declines by long to medium term investors.
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