Muinalis way of learning how to trade options

muinali

Well-Known Member
#11
However, watch out for odd events like mergers, acquisitions or rumors of bankruptcy. If any of these occur it can throw a wrench into the monkeyworks and seriously mess with the numbers.
As mentioned above, implied volatility can help you gauge the probability that a stock will wind up at any given price at the end of a 12-month period. But now you might be thinking, “That’s all fine and dandy, but I don’t usually trade 12-month options. How can implied volatility help my shorter-term trades?”
That’s a great question. The most commonly traded options are in fact near-term, between 30 and 90 calendar days until expiration. So here’s a quick and dirty formula you can use to calculate a one standard deviation move over the lifespan of your option contract — no matter the time frame.



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muinali

Well-Known Member
#13
reserved for further explaination
 

muinali

Well-Known Member
#14
The “Problem” With Directional Trading...


Many people are directional traders. That is, they buy a stock before they believe if will go up or they short a stock if they think it will fall in price.

Now before I go on, there is absolutely nothing wrong with directional trading. However, the probability of success is against you. So directional trading is best left for the smallest portion of your portfolio.

Directional Trading...has to do with the concept of control.Let’s say we buy our favorite stock just when it breaks out of a solid base pattern. In order to make money, the stock MUST move in the direction that we WANT it to go. But we have no control over the market.
The “Problem” With Directional Trading...
The markets going to do what it wants. It doesn’t care about us! So we have to wait… and hope. (Hope is an emotion by the way) Thus, we are not in charge. The market's in charge!
We will focus on what we CAN control. Since controlling the market is impossible, we will control how we react to the market’s movements.
we ensure that in the long run the probabilities stay in our favor.

We cannot control the markets but we can control the level of risk in our trades.

A good trader = A good risk manager

We are all about the CAN!
 
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muinali

Well-Known Member
#15
This is option chain of jindalstel for current month expiry 27 dec


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underlying stock price=452.20
Implied value=39.57
Days to expiration=4
One Standard Deviation=+/- 18.73
It mean 68% of chances are price remain in range between 433.47 to 470.93
Intrinsic value (CE)=452.2-440=12.2
Now CE Trading @17.5
calculation of time value=17.5-12.2=5.3
as near as date reach to expiry date time value 5.30 will be decay near to 0
 
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muinali

Well-Known Member
#16
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muinali

Well-Known Member
#17
- Direction of the stock.



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script is overbought in position may fall drastically good to bet on buy PE jan expiry

- Volatility in the market.

IV=39.57
HV=14.32

- Time frame of our option trade.

4 Days Remain (current expiry 27 dec. 2012)
 
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muinali

Well-Known Member
#18
jindelstel dec expiry 460 [email protected] moving nicely now 13.50
LTP=16.50 (CLOSED)
 
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muinali

Well-Known Member
#19
About India VIX
*
India VIX is a volatility index based on the index option prices of NIFTY. India VIX is
computed using the best bid and ask quotes of the out-of-the-money near and mid-month
NIFTY option contracts which are traded on the F&O segment of NSE. India VIX
indicates the investor’s perception of the market’s volatility in the near term.
The index
depicts the expected market volatility over the next 30 calendar days. i.e. higher the India
VIX values, higher the expected volatility and vice-versa.

India VIX computation methodology
India VIX uses the computation methodology of CBOE, with suitable amendments to
adapt to the NIFTY options order book using cubic splines, etc
The factors considered in the computation of India VIX are mentioned below:
1) Time to expiry:
The time to expiry is computed in minutes instead of days in order to arrive at a level
of precision expected by professional traders.
2) Interest Rate:
The relevant tenure NSE MIBOR rate (i.e 30 days or 90 days) is being considered as
risk-free interest rate for the respective expiry months of the NIFTY option contracts
3) The forward index level:
India VIX is computed using out-of-the-money option contracts. Out-of-the-money
option contracts are identified using forward index level. The forward index level
helps in determining the at-the-money (ATM) strike which in turn helps in selecting
the option contracts which shall be used for computing India VIX. The forward index
level is taken as the latest available price of NIFTY future contract for the respective
expiry month.

*
“VIX” is a trademark of Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated (“CBOE”) and Standard & Poor’s
has granted a license to NSE, with permission from CBOE, to use such mark in the name of the India VIX

and for purposes relating to the India VIX.
4) Bid-Ask Quotes
The strike price of NIFTY option contract available just below the forward index
level is taken as the ATM strike. NIFTY option Call contracts with strike price above
the ATM strike and NIFTY option Put contracts with strike price below the ATM
strike are identified as out-of-the-money options and best bid and ask quotes of such
option contracts are used for computation of India VIX. In respect of strikes for
which appropriate quotes are not available, values are arrived through interpolation
using a statistical method namely “Natural Cubic Spline”
After identification of the quotes, the variance (volatility squared) is computed
separately for near and mid month expiry. The variance is computed by providing
weightages to each of the NIFTY option contracts identified for the computation, as
per the CBOE method. The weightage of a single option contract is directly
proportional to the average of best bid-ask quotes of the option contract and inversely
proportional to the option contract’s strike price
Computation of India VIX
The variance for the near and mid month expiry computed separately are interpolated to
get a single variance value with a constant maturity of 30 days to expiration. The square
root of the computed variance value is multiplied by 100 to arrive at the India VIX value.
For further details please refer to the white paper with the detailed methodology on
computation of India VIX at www.nseindia.com
current vix:-
http://www.nseindia.com/content/press/prs_vix.htm
 
#20
Good initiative Muinali , looking forward to this thread as it will be informative to all the members. Looking forward to participation of Dan, Columbus, Timepass and other options traders.

Shifting this thread to options sub-section.

Smart_trade
 

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