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Raghavacc

Well-Known Member
Again lets keep it simple and not make life complicated.No hi fi definations .
Fib is a tool for trending markets.Its again one more tool which is used for identifying a peculiar behavior of the mass crowd.
Fib has 2 dimensions
one “Retracement” and
another is “extension”.
Here also lets use our simple language.

The levels to look for retracements are 23%,38%,50% and 62%.

The levels to look for extensions ( Continuance of trend ) are 123%,138%,150% and 162%.

Now u must be knowing that “O” is the place of starting of the trend and “100%” is the place where trend started retracing.

Now further 23%,38%,50% and 62% retracements all fall below 100% levels but above “O”.
Naturally Fib extensions of 123%,138%,150% and 162%. All fall above 100%.Its a common sense.

Now comes the difficulty.How to draw ?where to start?,where is the trend? Isn’t it?The problem is if there are 1 Lakh traders 99,999 are in trouble, they are confused.They do neither grasp simple things nor accept it. That’s a fact.

Now lets see how we draw it.

1st and 2 charts are monthly charts with retracement & extension levels respectively (One candle per one month).3rd and 4th charts are weekly charts with retracement & extension levels respectively ( One candle per one week).Now where do we start from?.

Listen – If a bar closes in green what does it suggest?.It suggests that price has moved up. In other words we had a uptrend for that particular period.Are u surpised that just one candle can represent a trend.Thats what we have to learn .The same One candle in 30 Min TF or 5 Min TF represents many candles. However we are making our work dead easy.

Now when a price moves up what will be the direction of the retracement.Naturally opposite side.i.e:downwards.Hence we take the top (high ) of the candle as starting point and draw the fib line by bringing it to the low of the candle. Now we get 62,50,38and 23%.

Similarly fib extensions as we know are above the high of candles hence the starting point is low or base of the candle and when we draw the line from base ( low) to high of the candle it automatically shows the level of extensions.

Vice versa for downtrend.

Pls google search of drawing Fib retracement and fib extensions,you would get lot of materials.

Next we will cover how do we use these 2 tools to make our trades .(Pivot and Fib combined)
 
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columbus

Well-Known Member
Here is this exercise how we are going to calculate pivots.

==================================================
Weekly Pivots

1) Weekly Pivot Point=Weekly High+Weekly Low +Weekly Close
__________________________________
3
Weekly Pivots

1) Weekly Pivot Point=(Weekly High+Weekly Low +Weekly Close)/3
 
These are the PIVOTS based on the data of the NSE Website

NIFTY (SPOT)

WEEKLY (27 June 2011 - Monday to 01 July 2011 - Friday)

Pivot: 5589.10
R1: 5477.90
R2: 5860.65

S1: 5472.40
S2: 5317.55

MONTHLY (01 June 2011 to 30 June 2011)

Pivot: 5500.40
R1: 5804.90
R2: 5962.40

S1: 5342.90
S2: 5038.40

TATA STEELL

WEEKLY (27 June 2011 - Monday to 01 July 2011 - Friday)

Pivot: 597.45
R1: 620.10
R2: 639.35

S1: 578.15
S2: 555.50

MONTHLY (01 June 2011 to 30 June 2011)

Pivot: 590.4
R1: 632.3
R2: 654.35

S1: 568.35
S2: 526.45

I have tried my level best to be precise in this data... yet, kindly cross check.
 

Raghavacc

Well-Known Member
These are the PIVOTS based on the data of the NSE Website

NIFTY (SPOT)

WEEKLY (27 June 2011 - Monday to 01 July 2011 - Friday)

Pivot: 5589.10
R1: 5477.90
R2: 5860.65

S1: 5472.40
S2: 5317.55

MONTHLY (01 June 2011 to 30 June 2011)

Pivot: 5500.40
R1: 5804.90
R2: 5962.40

S1: 5342.90
S2: 5038.40

TATA STEELL

WEEKLY (27 June 2011 - Monday to 01 July 2011 - Friday)

Pivot: 597.45
R1: 620.10
R2: 639.35

S1: 578.15
S2: 555.50

MONTHLY (01 June 2011 to 30 June 2011)

Pivot: 590.4
R1: 632.3
R2: 654.35

S1: 568.35
S2: 526.45

I have tried my level best to be precise in this data... yet, kindly cross check.
Hi Deepan,

I never expect precission from any one. Neither that works in market. I appreciate the efforts.You have done that.Great.Keep going....:clapping:
 

Raghavacc

Well-Known Member
Before I start on “How to trade it, I will dwell upon a concept called “Confluence” or “Sangam”
In pure Indian term a "Sangam" according to our tradition is nothing but a place where 2 things merge and become one.

Triveni Sangam, Rudra Prayag,Dev Prayag - these are to name a few where 2 or more rivers merge and that place as per our tradition is considered to be holy and powerfull.See how our ancestors knew the concepts of trading years before!!!!:)

When comes to trading the term is same but tools are different.Just imagine A monthly S1,Fib 38%,Last day low,A top of IB -if all of these are at number 5500 for nifty ,what can happen?5500 becomes a powerfull place of support.

Its called confluence in trading .2 or more tools or indicators representing a same number or level. They provide powerful supports and resistance respectively.It can be a monthly 38% and a weekly 61% level representing a same number or a weekly 50% and weekly S1 like wise. Big option traders,Pro’s all look for these levels hiding behind the bush.When price touches and reacts at these levels they jump and make it big.
Can we try it?Do we succeed? Time will tell.Nothing is guaranteed in market.
Once you understand this “Confluence” you become a powerfull trader.

Now tell me .Has any book, seminar despite of levying high fees, did tell you such simple thing?

====================================================================================
Now we know how to calculate fibs and pivots .Let us come to final but important part .How to trade them?

I am attaching an excel sheet which makes our job easy. We have 4 sheets in the excel sheet each representing a week ,Monthly being common in all of them.Just calculate and put the numbers.Then do as below to find out confluences.

Select “Number “colums only.
In the "HOME" tab ,click “Conditional formatting”.
Then from dropdown select “New rules”.
Then under “ select rule type” select “Format only unique or duplicate values”
select the colour- click ok .You are done .
Duplicate values will be highlighted in colour that you specified.Those are the confluence numbers.There can be multiple confluence areas. Same process can be repeated to highlight them with different colours.Its for MS excel 2010....

1.If price makes upmove we look for it to react at Next fib level 123,138,150 and 161, monthly as well as weekly. We also look for confluences. When price makes down move we look for 61,50,38 and 23 levels monthly as well as weekly .
Now you can ask.If price reaches say 123 and bounces down what do we do?. Look for 100,61 ……so on Always next levels either up or down and then confluence….After we have few charts, the clarity will start prevailing.
2. Similar stuff for Pivots.

PS1: I am unable to upload the excel file specified above .Can any one pls help me?
PS2 - pardon me in case of typo's as I had to write a lot and also pleas let me know in case I missed any thing so that I can clarify.

At the end I would ask you "Have you understood? If not ask questions.

I have few traffic police in my home town .They go to circle stand for their duty and then start searching which is right hand and which is left hand:lol::D:lol:.Let that not happen to us.Please Ask all questions b4 monday....:)
 
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Raghav,
Here is this exercise how we are going to calculate pivots.

==================================================
Weekly Pivots

1) Weekly Pivot Point=(Weekly High+Weekly Low +Weekly Close)/3

2) Weekly R1 =(Weekly Pivot x 2) – Weekly Low

3) Weekly R2 = (Weekly Pivot + Weekly High) –Weekly Low

4) Weekly S1 = (Weekly Pivot 2) – Weekly High

5) Weekly S2 = (Weekly Pivot –Weekly High) +Weekly Low

================================================== ======

Monthly Pivot

1) (Monthly Pivot=Monthly High+Monthly Low +Monthly Close)/3

2) Monthly R1 =(Monthly Pivot x 2) – Monthly Low

3) Monthly R2 = (Monthly Pivot + Monthly High) –Monthly Low

4) Monthly S1 = (Monthly Pivot 2) – Monthly High

5) Monthly S2 = (Monthly Pivot –Monthly High) +Monthly Low

As per above formula given the calculation of NF for weekly and monthly as follows:
WEEKLY PIVOT Value : 5595
R1 = 5745.6
R2 = 5852.6
S1 = 5488
S2 = 5551.4
MONTHLY PIVOT value: 5493.43
R1 = 5804.46
R2 = 5964.83
S1 = 5333.06
S2 = 5342.77
 

VJAY

Well-Known Member
Dear raghavji,
You can upload file to 4shared dot com and put link here.....
 
Dear Raghavsir, I have over looked few sites abt Fibs. After this, I have been little bit confused abt the method of drawing the Fibs.

We are going to draw the Fibs in following method: In Up-Trend, we will start from High and End at LOW.

In the Down-Trend, we will start from Low and end at High.

While at may sites, it is suggested something opposite, i.e.:

In Up Trend, Draw Fibs From LOW to HIGH and In Down Trend Draw Fibs from HIGH to LOW.

We have defined the Monthly and Weekly High - Low. So, it is not going to make major impact except the chronology of the Fibs Levels.

As per our method, in UP TREND, the Fibs Levels will be:
(From High to Low) - 1) 100% 2) 61.8% 3) 50% 4) 38.2% 5) 23.6% 6) 0%.

As per the other method, in UP Trend, the Fibs Levels will be:
(From High to Low) - 1) 0% 2) 23.6%) 3)38.2% 4) 50% 5) 61.8% 6) 100%

I don't know how we are going to use these levels. But my confusion is whether this may make any difference on the analysis using chart. (I have read that the level of 61.8% is very important level. It's also known as the Golden Mean or something like that.)

If the confusion is removed, it will be better...

Thanks and Regards...
 

Raghavacc

Well-Known Member
Dear Raghavsir, I have over looked few sites abt Fibs. After this, I have been little bit confused abt the method of drawing the Fibs.

We are going to draw the Fibs in following method: In Up-Trend, we will start from High and End at LOW.

In the Down-Trend, we will start from Low and end at High.

While at may sites, it is suggested something opposite, i.e.:

In Up Trend, Draw Fibs From LOW to HIGH and In Down Trend Draw Fibs from HIGH to LOW.

We have defined the Monthly and Weekly High - Low. So, it is not going to make major impact except the chronology of the Fibs Levels.

As per our method, in UP TREND, the Fibs Levels will be:
(From High to Low) - 1) 100% 2) 61.8% 3) 50% 4) 38.2% 5) 23.6% 6) 0%.

As per the other method, in UP Trend, the Fibs Levels will be:
(From High to Low) - 1) 0% 2) 23.6%) 3)38.2% 4) 50% 5) 61.8% 6) 100%

I don't know how we are going to use these levels. But my confusion is whether this may make any difference on the analysis using chart. (I have read that the level of 61.8% is very important level. It's also known as the Golden Mean or something like that.)

If the confusion is removed, it will be better...

Thanks and Regards...
Hi Deepan,

Indeed both are right.

What they are saying is from 100% (height if the trend or high ) ---23% , retracement... from 100%---38% retracement ..so is 50% retracement and 61% retracement.....Indeed they are right....

For a month period pls ignore them ....What I am saying here is also same but with different meaning... I am taking low as 0 and high as 100 then I am going form low 23,38,50,61 ......They are coming back from high 61,50,38 and 23.........so it wont make any different......Once the chart comes I will clear all doubts.....
 
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Raghavacc

Well-Known Member
Please go through post no 747 again.I have edited and explained clearly the terms with ref to the chart.
 
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