My EOD Stock trades......updated regularly

What kind of stock market returns p.a. would you be happy with on a consistent basis?

  • 12-20% (Beating Fixed Deposits & Inflation)

    Votes: 3 7.5%
  • 20-30%

    Votes: 11 27.5%
  • 30-40%

    Votes: 6 15.0%
  • 40-50%

    Votes: 1 2.5%
  • 50%+

    Votes: 14 35.0%
  • Whatever the market gives (Negative to 0 to 100%+)

    Votes: 5 12.5%

  • Total voters
    40
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Nifty Trader

Well-Known Member
#91
Hello Nifty_Trader Jai,

I have a question regarding stocks. You come across as a well informed person, therefore I would appreciate your opinion (on mine) :)

Please look at the monthly chart of Infosys (for ex.) and bring your attention to the volume.

One will notice that there is a distinct bifurcation in nature of volumes around 2004. After 2004 the volume suddenly thinned out.

Mathematically,

Let,
A = total volume of shares traded from 1998 to 2004 (adjusted for spilts not bonuses, since they do not show in the chart data)

B = total volume of shares traded from 2004 to current, 2012

Our focus is A/B;

For infosys,

A = 5003679962
B = 998802680

The ratio A/B = 5

If A is almost 5 times greater than B, then one would think that participation was relatively weak after 2004. After 2004, even the major monthly supports do not have serious participation. Therefore, any semi-serious cue (global or local) could easily break these supports. This is because,

Ones who bought before 2004, at sub-700 prices, would be happy to book profit at current prices. No wonder Infy saw the sharpest fall in its recent history.

Please provide your views, especially contrary ones.
Hi Amit. Sorry for the delayed response. Your analysis is correct as far as the drop in volume is concerned. Not sure though that it is the reason for the fall in Infosys. I am no expert in volume analysis to be honest though. I think volume should always be a confirming indicator and never a primary one. If you see, even though volumes might have been low, Infy did climb in a smooth manner from 700 odd in 2004 to a high of 3500.

I have also seen downtrending charts which were very good shorting opportunities but where volume was average. If one were to wait for volume confirmation, probably one would have missed out on such trades.

So if you are in a trade which is going in your favour and volumes are good, thats a good sign. However, it could also be distribution volume after the initial few surges. Also, generally smart money accumulates a good stock in a phased manner so as not to communicate their intentions to everybody else watching the same indicators of price and volume. So the volume spike might not be there.

Thats my 2 cents on it :)
 

Nifty Trader

Well-Known Member
#92
Hi NT,

Good going, your portfolio value would have shot up today because of spike in Ajanta Pharma!!!!!!!!!!!!

Cheers, making good money.:thumb:

Regds,
SA
Thanks Sannjay. Yes, portfolio value is up. What counts though is when you exit. Till then these are paper profits ;) Effort is to avoid getting excited when you are making profits or depressed when you encounter losses. Balance is the key to good trading decisions. Its, of course, a process of continuously trying to better yourself.
 

Nifty Trader

Well-Known Member
#93
Did you short May series on 23rd April ? Is your SL still 34.6 (CMP=30.9) or have you trailed it ?
Hi Timepass. I shorted the April series and rolled over to May on the last day. Ideally one would compensate 30 paise (the difference in April & May prices for both TVS and Renuka) and move the SL. However, I have noticed that it doesnt make a difference (as shown in the backtest) hence I stick to original prices to avoid making it complicated. If the difference is huge then one can probably adjust slightly.
 

Nifty Trader

Well-Known Member
#94
hello Sir, first of all i would like to really thank you for this wonderful regularly updated thread. i was searching for some good eod strategies and just dropped down here. well, after reading your thread i must say u r doing great at ur analysis and also the selection of stocks is awesome. and i hope to flourish this thread in coming time.great days ahead:thumb:
btw are this positions taken in cash or FnO.
Hello Stader. Thanks for your kind words. I hope I can encourage people to see that it is possible to consistently make money trading the markets.

The positions are all in Cash unless indicated otherwise. Shorting positions, necessarily, have to be Futures prices since we have to hold positions for days or weeks and cannot square off intraday (unless SL is hit the same day).
 

Nifty Trader

Well-Known Member
#96
Hey NT,

Raj Tv gave a spike to 198.something and came back to its original levels.

Can you explain this sudden action ?

Rgds,
SA
Hi Sanjay. It was a freak trade and hence to be ignored. Maybe 1 trade might have got executed in the first few seconds of market opening. It happens quite regularly across most stocks. This is one reason I prefer to place trades after 1-2 mins of market open.
 

Nifty Trader

Well-Known Member
#97
Open Positions:

1) Ajanta Pharma bought on 13th Mar @ 436.45. SL below 529.9
2) Kajaria Ceramics bought on 30th Mar @ 168.5, SL below 176.9
3) TVS Motor shorted on 9th Apr @ 42, SL above 42.45
4) Renuka shorted on 23rd April @ 32.05, SL above 34.6. Exited @ 32 to enter Rushil Decor. Profit = 0.2%
5) Raj TV bought on 26th April @ 159.6, SL 146.8.
6) Rushil Decor bought today (30th April) @ 251, SL below 230.9

Note: Words in Bold denote a change from the last post (esp. SL).

Highlights: Even though there was no exit from the system I got out of Renuka today to enter Rushil Decor. I had to exit one position as money management suggested that I shouldnt be exposed to 3 fairly long-ish stop losses which would have been the case had I simply added the additional long.

Whenever I am in 2 minds on whether to exit one stock and go for another, I generally ask myself which stock I wouldnt mind re-entering even if my SL got hit on the first trade. That generally settles the argument as it did today. Also, Renuka so far had been a weak link (purely based on performance) so it was the only option. It was a close call on which long to enter between Rushil Decor & Strides Arcolab but then I could only enter one.
 
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Nifty Trader

Well-Known Member
#98
@ Sanjuasrani - Another point to add. Its easy to identify such freak trades. Apart from the huge gap (up or down) on the daily chart you will find that the freak trade also happens to be either the Day High or the Day Low i.e. Open and High / Low will be the same. Once you see these 2 criteria being met, you can safely assume that it was indeed a freak trade & disregard the levels for purposes of analysis.
 

Nifty Trader

Well-Known Member
#99
Open Positions:

1) Ajanta Pharma bought on 13th Mar @ 436.45. SL below 529.9
2) Kajaria Ceramics bought on 30th Mar @ 168.5, SL below 182.4
3) TVS Motor shorted on 9th Apr @ 42, SL above 42.45
4) Raj TV bought on 26th April @ 159.6, SL below 157.5
5) Rushil Decor bought on 30th April @ 251, SL below 234.4

Note: Words in Bold denote a change from the last post (esp. SL).
 
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