NIFTY 50 future TRENDS

[sanjosedesi]

For those that are following oil in relation to Reliance, and then, in turn, believes Reliance is going to have that big daddy pull on Nifty, here's a little update on oil:
There is going to be very strong R at the top of the weekly cloud at 92.60. That should be means for at least a sharp reversal. It is not certain if it contains or if it is temporary, as there are mixed signals on the monthly and weekly charts.
Here's the weeklies which indicates after last week's move, 92.60 will not be hit next week:
93.89
91.29
89.73
86.65
85.14
-82.45

Paul, oil works differently in India. The government controls the price at the pump (companies have flexibility but it is limited) and in some cases (diesel) it is heavily subsidized. Reliance owns the oil fields and the refineries, so it is a question of their input cost (does not change) and the output price (which is raised thanks to the government). Yes Reliance might get impacted in its oil exports, but its sales in India markets should not be any impacted because of the world oil prices.

Also, India is a different kind of country. Prices do not change everyday, they change 3-4 times a year at most, sometimes less. While in US the prices went up to 5 USD per gallon a few years back, then came down, then came back up, the prices in India always go up. They never come down ... I should think it is the subsidies being removed, but there's more to it, such as corruption. Last, Reliance is the biggest listed company in India, and the most connected in terms of bribing the government (not campaign contributions, plain vanilla bribe) if you believe the grapevine.

So yes, the technicals would work for Reliance, but not common sense !!
[EDIT] As to why technicals would work, smart money will start moving in or out of stocks a few days before government announces anything related to Reliance as government leaks to their friends and their buy and sell would show up in price action.

 

[manoharpillai]

Next week nifty may be in the range of 4970-5170 these are breakdown/breakout levels 5100+ call and 5000 - put will diminish in value and time ...

 

[4xpipcounter]

SJD, thanks again. I thought the relationship you all were talking about was the commodity oil price.
There is actually a direction correlation between oil commodity prices and the prices at the pump. Locally, the price per gallon is equal to about 3.5% of the commodity price. That 3.5% is creeping up thanks to our current president and his cabinet.

Paul, oil works differently in India. The government controls the price at the pump (companies have flexibility but it is limited) and in some cases (diesel) it is heavily subsidized. Reliance owns the oil fields and the refineries, so it is a question of their input cost (does not change) and the output price (which is raised thanks to the government). Yes Reliance might get impacted in its oil exports, but its sales in India markets should not be any impacted because of the world oil prices.

Also, India is a different kind of country. Prices do not change everyday, they change 3-4 times a year at most, sometimes less. While in US the prices went up to 5 USD per gallon a few years back, then came down, then came back up, the prices in India always go up. They never come down ... I should think it is the subsidies being removed, but there's more to it, such as corruption. Last, Reliance is the biggest listed company in India, and the most connected in terms of bribing the government (not campaign contributions, plain vanilla bribe) if you believe the grapevine.

So yes, the technicals would work for Reliance, but not common sense !!
[EDIT] As to why technicals would work, smart money will start moving in or out of stocks a few days before government announces anything related to Reliance as government leaks to their friends and their buy and sell would show up in price action.

 

[LAWRENCE66]

Can you give crude oil trend?please

 

[4xpipcounter]

With respect to Mano's most current post, my WS2 is 4942 and the WR2 is 5226. Outlook is consolidative, so the range for the week should remain within those reference points.
When the market has the appearance to highly trend, then the 3's become practical to look to. A most recent example is the week of July 31. That was when the weekly candle dipped out of the cloud and under the tenken and kijun, and the monthly was bearing down. It was quite simple to see how the WS3 at 5268 that week was going to be hit, as the dip was actually 5065.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Lawrence. I posted my views just a few posts back. I posted it in lieu of Nifty and Reliance. Nevertheless, that is still my MT view.

Can you give crude oil trend?please

 

[trade4joisar]

With respect to Mano's most current post, my WS2 is 4942 and the WR2 is 5226. Outlook is consolidative, so the range for the week should remain within those reference points.
When the market has the appearance to highly trend, then the 3's become practical to look to. A most recent example is the week of July 31. That was when the weekly candle dipped out of the cloud and under the tenken and kijun, and the monthly was bearing down. It was quite simple to see how the WS3 at 5268 that week was going to be hit, as the dip was actually 5065.

Can you explain this with chart OR link to the chart will also do?

This will help us to learn your way of looking @ chart.

I also like to know if you have any ichimoku thread or some learning material on ichimoku strategy.

 

[4xpipcounter]

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Can you explain this with chart OR link to the chart will also do?

This will help us to learn your way of looking @ chart.

I also like to know if you have any ichimoku thread or some learning material on ichimoku strategy.

T4J, http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page That is thr most definitive site I've seen on the ichimoku. Also, an excellent thread on this forum is the one by Linkon.

The charts explain my bias and why I see no less than 5209, a probable 5241, and containment at 5301 before the DOWN is officially is back on.
The 4-hour is in the middle of the cloud with strong momentum. Uusally when the candles enter one end they hit the other. The top of the cloud is 5209. The yellow line on top of the cloud is my MR1 at 5241. This would allow for an intraday spike to hit that level. 5301 is the bottom of a fresh daily, bearish cloud with the top SD channel line striking through the same area. 5301 adds up to a huge reversal if it is hit.

 

[sanjosedesi]

Thanks and you too!!
Because 21/9 is a low and the next turn date.
To give you an idea how accurate astro can be.........

This is someone else's calculation
He forecasted a Nifty low of 5330.4 on the 25th of May
On 25/5 Sun subtends = 0.5262 degrees
On 25/5 Sun distance from earth = 1.013 astronomical units
1.013 x 5262 = 5330.406

5330.4 was 0.6 point above the actual Nifty low of 5329.8
The relationship repeats only at specific planetary angles.
Don't know if it is always this accurate but defnitely better than trading RSI oversold.
Before you ask, no, he didn't tell me the angles. :lol:
There are some truly amazing astro guys out there, but very few come forward.

Hi Taurus, can you please provide some more insight into this astro thing? I do not believe, but am curious to see after reading your posts, I realize these are some other people who are creating these predictions not you.

At the same time, I totally do not get this 5330 multiple. If that was the case, we should have the same value every year since the angle * distance will be same every passing year. Did I miss something?

 

[Taurus1]

Hi Taurus, can you please provide some more insight into this astro thing? I do not believe, but am curious to see after reading your posts, I realize these are some other people who are creating these predictions not you.

No, all my forecasts are entirely my own. The example posted was only to show how well it works when it works. In any post if I post something that is not mine, I state very clearly that it is not my forecast.

At the same time, I totally do not get this 5330 multiple. If that was the case, we should have the same value every year since the angle * distance will be same every passing year. Did I miss something?

As said earlier, it is not mine, and remember that orbits are not circular, but elliptical.
For example, 100 degrees of mars in 2009, is totally different from 100 degrees of mars in 2011.