NIFTY 50 future TRENDS
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Nifty S&R's--2011:
8375.79 7371.27 6766.13 5555.87 4950.73 3946.21
The pic gives a bird's eye view of the year relative to the S&R's. This is the weekly chart.
I don't want to take up a lot of room in Sudoku's thread for all the details. Nevertheless, it was very clear at the year's beginning that it was going to be a strong bearish year for the market. It was in April that somewhere in this forum I said the market was headed to the 4600's. Strong monthly and weekly channels suggested that, and the break of the key 5230 area had sent this market on its way. The projection was based as a confluence with allowing for a spike on the other side of the 23.6% level of the YS2>YS3. It is always too much to ask for a 3 to ever be hit.
As it turned out, the 38.2% of YS2>YS3 was hit and the price settled in the 4600's. (BTW, flip the Fibos. I drew them upside down.)
Markets are very easy to forecast when there are one-way implications.
For this year, it is not quite as easy, because it is a matter of time when the LT DOWN's cycle is going to run out and it gets tired. The one rule is there will usually be a 3-spot move in any TF. That did not happen in 2011, as it was all one-way (south). This year, we know the DOWN will continue, but we know it is not as strongly obviated. We know, most likely a 1 and a polar 2 will be hit this year. That virtually puts the WS1 and the WR1, at 4158 and 5089 respectively, on the radar.
Re: Nifty yearlies--2012
Have we seen a proper TL yet? Where are we breaking?
Or, are we continuing the downtrend of the previous TL break?
You had mentioned that if we end below the Daily Tenkan, then the top around 4805 levels might be it, and we may not even go to 495x as earlier expected.
Does the view hold, or do we see an intermediate up before the trend continues? Please.
Have we seen a proper TL yet? Where are we breaking?
Or, are we continuing the downtrend of the previous TL break?
You had mentioned that if we end below the Daily Tenkan, then the top around 4805 levels might be it, and we may not even go to 495x as earlier expected.
Does the view hold, or do we see an intermediate up before the trend continues? Please.
Re: Nifty yearlies--2012
LTT, since the recent dip we had, it is hard to see where a TL could be drawn. If today's low is containment, then that is your TL-- connecting the dip to today's swing low.
A TL that becomes something of a tradeable quality could not be seen in the recent move north. For one, there is no discernible swing low to connect the dots. Secondly, even if there was, it is too steep. The TL would be broken by default.
The favored view is that seeing the daily tenken was broken, it will continue lower. The favorable view is to see the WS2 at 4571 hit, and then see the market continue lower to the MS1 at 4458. That area looks solid. That should be the area where a base is formed for the market to find its way to the YR1 at 5089. We also have that 5273 area that still needs to be dealt with.
If some of the shorter term views looks sketchy, it's because that is just the way it is. LT, we know now we are headed to the 4100's before we can even think of the LT DOWN coming to and end. There is also the strong possibility of seeing the 3600's visited.
LTT, since the recent dip we had, it is hard to see where a TL could be drawn. If today's low is containment, then that is your TL-- connecting the dip to today's swing low.
A TL that becomes something of a tradeable quality could not be seen in the recent move north. For one, there is no discernible swing low to connect the dots. Secondly, even if there was, it is too steep. The TL would be broken by default.
The favored view is that seeing the daily tenken was broken, it will continue lower. The favorable view is to see the WS2 at 4571 hit, and then see the market continue lower to the MS1 at 4458. That area looks solid. That should be the area where a base is formed for the market to find its way to the YR1 at 5089. We also have that 5273 area that still needs to be dealt with.
If some of the shorter term views looks sketchy, it's because that is just the way it is. LT, we know now we are headed to the 4100's before we can even think of the LT DOWN coming to and end. There is also the strong possibility of seeing the 3600's visited.
Have we seen a proper TL yet? Where are we breaking?
Or, are we continuing the downtrend of the previous TL break?
You had mentioned that if we end below the Daily Tenkan, then the top around 4805 levels might be it, and we may not even go to 495x as earlier expected.
Does the view hold, or do we see an intermediate up before the trend continues? Please.
Or, are we continuing the downtrend of the previous TL break?
You had mentioned that if we end below the Daily Tenkan, then the top around 4805 levels might be it, and we may not even go to 495x as earlier expected.
Does the view hold, or do we see an intermediate up before the trend continues? Please.
My hearty New year wishes to all friends and Tj members.
I am going to start this new year with a Bang... I am from Pondicherry South India ... Thane cyclone Hit our shore on 29th around 2 to 6 AM I have ever witnessed such a furry of Nature ... the speed of the wind was about 160 km/hr. most of the trees 100+ year old huge trees uprooted the life stood still without basic needs like water electricity...life slowly getting back to normal now .... fortunate my system/internet connection is working
Back to business I left on vacation on 16th Nifty was at 4652 and i said nothing much is going to change till i come back to trade on 2nd Jan. Now spot Nifty have to hold 4590-4570 try one more attempt towards 4800 which seems to be possible
I am going to start this new year with a Bang... I am from Pondicherry South India ... Thane cyclone Hit our shore on 29th around 2 to 6 AM I have ever witnessed such a furry of Nature ... the speed of the wind was about 160 km/hr. most of the trees 100+ year old huge trees uprooted the life stood still without basic needs like water electricity...life slowly getting back to normal now .... fortunate my system/internet connection is working
Back to business I left on vacation on 16th Nifty was at 4652 and i said nothing much is going to change till i come back to trade on 2nd Jan. Now spot Nifty have to hold 4590-4570 try one more attempt towards 4800 which seems to be possible
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