My views for 2012:
There is still strong momentum that favors the monthly TF. There is going to be a very strong LT confluence of support at circa YS1 at 4158. That will put at least a temporary lid on the tip south and offer a strong springboard for a reversal. The reaction the market takes from that point will determine the longer term movement for it. We could see a move back to this year's starting point (What I would call YP) at 4624, and afterward, the top of the monthly cloud is taken out and we head to the YS2 at 3693, and even much lower. The other scenario is that this has been a LT correction of the UP that peaked in November 2010, and then we're on our way to the YR2 at 5554.
From a trader's point of view, there are 2 excellent longer term opportunities on this market for 2012. From current level, the YS! at 4158 is on the radar.
The YS1 is strong containment, and it will yield a strong reversal.