Sensex has also achieved the minimum downside expectation we had placed at 38.2% retracement level to the preceding 7-week rally, i.e. 17400-500.
The low for the week was hit on Monday at 17381. Index moved into a sideways phase for the rest of week. The corrective phase, however, could not retrace more than 61.8% retracement level to the fall from 18424 (22nd Feb) to 17381 (27th Feb).
This fits into the definition of what is called as a Zigzag corrective. In a Zigzag, which is a 3-legged corrective marked as a-b-c, a is impulsive, and b corrects less than 61.8% of a.
Further, corrective phase to a, i.e. b, should consume more time than a. Last weeks sideways move, thus, consumed more time than a as required. Once b is over, c has to break the end-point of a.
As a result, if the Sensex does not retrace more than 61.8%, i.e. move above 18000-100, it is likely that last weeks low will be broken. Once broken, we confirm the corrective phase to be a Zigzag as perceived. The c of Zigzag can achieve 38.2% to 100% ratio to a.