Nifty: Daily Price Analysis

[scplindia]

Raunakji,

Today market fall seems false trigger, on BP oil spill, more than anything. Spain degarade did not do anything yesterday in German and French markets, and today, Oil spill on BP has caused false panic and spain degrade has just got added to it. See the world markets they have all pulled back, dow is nearly 1/2 percent up. Only FTSE is in deep red, becuase of BP which has 5 percent weightage on FTSE, UK.

So it may be too early to panic and expect 4200 levels.

 

[SwingKing]

Raunakji,

Today market fall seems false trigger, on BP oil spill, more than anything. Spain degarade did not do anything yesterday in German and French markets, and today, Oil spill on BP has caused false panic and spain degrade has just got added to it. See the world markets they have all pulled back, dow is nearly 1/2 percent up. Only FTSE is in deep red, becuase of BP which has 5 percent weightage on FTSE, UK.

So it may be too early to panic and expect 4200 levels.

Read the post carefully dear. If the channel gets violated and if technicals don't improve, then those levels will be on the cards. Moreover, I have been vouching for 4500 kind of levels from the time I started this thread. So, its not based on some oil spill panic. That's mere news and that has no value after it occurs.

At 5400 many said 5200 is the max they expect the markets to go down to. Look, today we are at sub 5000 levels. Can anybody call it right ? Well, I don't think so. We can follow the technicals, and they are weak at the moment. If they remain weak, then who knows what levels we can see. If technicals improve, then who are we to argue. We'll try and do what market asks us to do.

Tc

 

[SwingKing]

Finally raunakji I totally agree,It looks certain that markets are not so happy as of now...people who are praying to rain gods for a good monsoon consider that monsoon will drive the markets forward...whats your opinion in this regard. All I feel is that with so many dark clouds around the world, why should we keep our trust in monsoons which many a time have failed us...hey some problems with the chart they are not loading fully on my computer please check.....

Let's wait and watch dear. It's too soon to call anything. Images are loading fine. Is anyone else facing this problem?

Tc

 

[scplindia]

Read the post carefully dear. If the channel gets violated and if technicals don't improve, then those levels will be on the cards. Moreover, I have been vouching for 4500 kind of levels from the time I started this thread. So, its not based on some oil spill panic. That's mere news and that has no value after it occurs.

At 5400 many said 5200 is the max they expect the markets to go down to. Look, today we are at sub 5000 levels. Can anybody call it right ? Well, I don't think so. We can follow the technicals, and they are weak at the moment. If they remain weak, then who knows what levels we can see. If technicals improve, then who are we to argue. We'll try and do what market asks us to do.

Tc

As of now, studing the world markets, we may have a GAP UP tomorrow, both DAX, CAC have pulled back more than 2 1/2 percent. DOW future has also pulled back 2 percent. It is for our market to do this tomorrow. Unless some other news turns the table once again.

The main culprit was BP which opened 15 percent down on opening, and caused the main panic, being the heavy weight on FTSE, 5 percent.

It is similar to if, RIL opens 15 percent down, just imagine what will happen to Indian Markets, we are bound to have low circuits hits, atleast this did not happen in Europe markets today.

Agree with you markets are supreme, we need to follow the price action and charts, I am just trying to study why the panic today, not questioning the charts.

 

[laxsri]

I absolutely agree with you Raunakji

 

[SwingKing]

Nifty Price Analysis 2nd June 2010

Nifty saw some smart action in the last hour of trade and closed up with descent volumes. Through this week, if 4950 holds, then we could be seeing levels of 5100-5150 in the shorter term. From there on, we will have to review our situation once again. As of writing, Europe is again trading in the red, however, it is U.S which is ultimately going to decide the closing of Europe.

Asian Indices continue to trade weak and all the majority of indexes continue their downside momentum. On broader time frame, majority of Indices in India have formed key reversal patterns. If the situation does not stabilize, then we could be in for very volatile sessions ahead. For a broader market view, I have attached a long term monthly chart of Nifty along with its volumes. Weakness can be clearly seen.

In May, we fell with very high volumes. On the index, May volume was higher than the previous 4 months volume. Prior to that, right from November we were rising with falling volumes. This 'high' volume dump in May could well be the beginning of Mark down phase on the broader note. This has yet to be confirmed and typically it would get confirmed if we violate the 'low' levels of May. Historically, May-June have never been good for World markets, and seeing this seasonality pattern along with the current price action, it does make me more cautious.

Swing trade on the long side can be initiated if one has the experience of doing so. Broadly though, aggressive long positions have to be avoided at this juncture. On the whole, we need to be more cautious and keep our profits secure.

 

[rajputz]

Raunak sir,

i am expecting a trend reversal on nifty on daily charts.

 

[columbus]

Raunak sir,

i am expecting a trend reversal on nifty on daily charts.

Hi Raj,

I always remember linkon7 words:

Assumptions is mother of many screw-ups

 

[rajputz]

Hi Raj,

I always remember linkon7 words:

Assumptions is mother of many screw-ups

No assumption columbus bhai...i also remember his words...i still remember when he used to laugh at me when i was assuming, saying me these golden words...but this time not assuming....going by the charts and system.

 

[scplindia]

No assumption columbus bhai...i also remember his words...i still remember when he used to laugh at me when i was assuming, saying me these golden words...but this time not assuming....going by the charts and system.

Raj,

Today's pull back is just a retracement of yesterday's false trigger, I was expecting a Gap up, but did not happen, hence the late pull back, this may look like a technical pull back, but is not supported by news, two of the most developed countries - Germany and Japan, their PMs have resigned. Had you noticed today, the market was in green when the world markets were in red, this was because, India over reacted yesterday, and hence the late pull back.

MORE uncertainty.

BP is likely to face more problems like expenses towards, cleanup, ECO damage, compensation law suits, Payments to US GOVT for support etc, drilling additional two wells to cap the exisiting leak, and all this is going to go on until August, end result BP one of the Largest LARGE CAP company in the world, will be reduced to a small MID cap company, Hence all this deep cuts in EU markets.

China is a major problem now. Europe Problems with PIIGS Countires. Possibility of WAR between north and South Korea.

AS of NOW, the Certainity in the world all around us, is the UNCERTAINITY prevailing.

WE NEED TO TRADE with extreme Caution, because markets will see both UP & DOWN Movements quite violently. BUT with a negative bias.