Nifty started the week on a positive note. The thing to take away today was that Nifty managed to close near its high range. However, the rise was on much low volumes and now we have risen for two continuous days with lower volumes. Lower volumes could be attributed to the fact that FII participation could have been low due to holidays in major world markets.
On a broader scale, I do expect this week to be relatively stable. However, whether this would lead us to a new intermediate up rally is difficult to state at this stage. It is only over the period of time that we will be in a position to say whether this rally is a retracement of correction or it is a fresh move to the upside. The intermediate term momentum is still towards down side and unless that improves, it is very premature to state anything.
On daily frame, the momentum is to the positive side. This could last like this this week (atleast till thursday). I don't want to get into fundamentals in this thread and hence for those who think, that a new upmove has begun, I would seriously ask them to review their view. Till the technicals don't change, we cannot assert that the trend has changed. We can always contemplate the impact of 'x' or 'y' factor on the markets, but till the price points towards that, it remains mere speculation. This view of mine is not to put down anyone, but it reflects my limitation in contemplating and speculating about the future of the market. I prefer to trade what I see and in doing so, I avoid trading what I think.
Let's see how things shape up.
