Nifty: Daily Price Analysis
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Nifty 27th May Daily Price Analysis
Markets continued its upward leg with good volumes. Advance/Decline numbers were also in favor of the current leg. Given the way global market's are moving up in the shorter term, it looks like we will be retracing to previous supply zones. I have highlighted the immediate supply zones in black. Any trader wishing to build short positions should do so around these zones when price seems to look weak again.
May series was very volatile and choppy. Derivative data today suggested good short covering as far as short term is concerned and also 4800 and 5200 being crucial support and resistance zones. Markets have oversold this month and as mentioned earlier this up leg could be a short lived move before we begin to move down further.
As a trader I am open to altering my views if facts change and I feel over the course of time, we need to be prudent and pragmatic in order to keep a non biased opinion in the markets. In such scenarios, when things are more or less related to global cues, one needs to study the price moves of major world indices impacting global sentiments. Hence, I will be posting a detailed price analysis of global indexes just to see whether we still stand on the "right" side of the markets. Until then, let's enjoy the current up move. Keep tight stop losses and protect your profits.
Markets continued its upward leg with good volumes. Advance/Decline numbers were also in favor of the current leg. Given the way global market's are moving up in the shorter term, it looks like we will be retracing to previous supply zones. I have highlighted the immediate supply zones in black. Any trader wishing to build short positions should do so around these zones when price seems to look weak again.
May series was very volatile and choppy. Derivative data today suggested good short covering as far as short term is concerned and also 4800 and 5200 being crucial support and resistance zones. Markets have oversold this month and as mentioned earlier this up leg could be a short lived move before we begin to move down further.
As a trader I am open to altering my views if facts change and I feel over the course of time, we need to be prudent and pragmatic in order to keep a non biased opinion in the markets. In such scenarios, when things are more or less related to global cues, one needs to study the price moves of major world indices impacting global sentiments. Hence, I will be posting a detailed price analysis of global indexes just to see whether we still stand on the "right" side of the markets. Until then, let's enjoy the current up move. Keep tight stop losses and protect your profits.
I will be watching the action around 5100 zone. That is supply zone as well as upper channel line of latest downward trending channel.
Till then bulls will have their day before real fight starts once again.
Possible, that we might hit it tomorrow, cause global mkt seems to be in big green.
Happy Trading
Till then bulls will have their day before real fight starts once again.
Possible, that we might hit it tomorrow, cause global mkt seems to be in big green.
Happy Trading
Dear Sir,
I tend not to agree with you, all members who can add value to this thread should post charts, we are all learning and using these charts to effectively trade intraday.
I have to accept I have learnt a lot these days from this thread and I wish to thank all the members for their valuable posts and charts.
Thanks and Pl Keep this post going.
Prem Kumar
I tend not to agree with you, all members who can add value to this thread should post charts, we are all learning and using these charts to effectively trade intraday.
I have to accept I have learnt a lot these days from this thread and I wish to thank all the members for their valuable posts and charts.
Thanks and Pl Keep this post going.
Prem Kumar
World Market Analysis: 28th May 2010
India
We had a fairly good week with Nifty and Sensex both closing in the green. Last session saw the markets rising on low volumes as compared to previous days. Though too much should not be read into this, but still in the overall picture this does form an important element. If we study the internals of the market, there is no reason to believe that there is strength underneath. CNX 100, CNX IT, CNX Bankex, CNX Midcap, CNX Nifty Junior, CNX Defty and CNX 500 all remain weak (Price structure). Neither of the Indices are showing divergences or signs of potential strength. One thing however must be noted that the previous three sessions have been positive price wise. Since the signals were confusing, I decided to dig deep to analyze whats happening around the world.
Global Indexes
Since this correction in world markets has so much to do with Europe and China, I decided to start with Europe and see whats going on there. European markets were down and battered in the previous 3-4 weeks and common sense (in technicals) would suggest that they were due for a up swing. On close inspection, I found that there are 6 Major European Indexes which have formed a huge positive divergence between indicators and prices (Austria, Cac, Ftse, Dax,Belgium, Switzerland, Turkey and Spain). Furthermore in Asia Pacific, Hong Kong, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Taiwan and Australia have formed positive divergences.
India and U.S.
Surprisingly, Indian indices and the U.S. indices remain relatively weak. This is where we need to put our common sense to test. The entire correction began due to sentiment dampening all across the globe. This was largely due to Europe and China. When European and Major Asian Indices (closely linked to China) are showing positive divergence, it is more likely that the following week could see further upside. Globally when so many indices begin to show positive divergence, the signals need to be noted. Hence, the bias for next week does remain towards positive side.
What about medium term?
Well, on medium term horizon, currently there is no Global index which is in a Buy mode. Hence, the above mentioned points to remain valid for a week or two. On broader scale though, things havent changed that much. We still remain weak and we need to see whether the current upmove can take us into the Buying territory.
Lets see how things shape up. Weekends here and its time for me to get ready and hit some good restaurant/bar.
Have fun and Tc.
India
We had a fairly good week with Nifty and Sensex both closing in the green. Last session saw the markets rising on low volumes as compared to previous days. Though too much should not be read into this, but still in the overall picture this does form an important element. If we study the internals of the market, there is no reason to believe that there is strength underneath. CNX 100, CNX IT, CNX Bankex, CNX Midcap, CNX Nifty Junior, CNX Defty and CNX 500 all remain weak (Price structure). Neither of the Indices are showing divergences or signs of potential strength. One thing however must be noted that the previous three sessions have been positive price wise. Since the signals were confusing, I decided to dig deep to analyze whats happening around the world.
Global Indexes
Since this correction in world markets has so much to do with Europe and China, I decided to start with Europe and see whats going on there. European markets were down and battered in the previous 3-4 weeks and common sense (in technicals) would suggest that they were due for a up swing. On close inspection, I found that there are 6 Major European Indexes which have formed a huge positive divergence between indicators and prices (Austria, Cac, Ftse, Dax,Belgium, Switzerland, Turkey and Spain). Furthermore in Asia Pacific, Hong Kong, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Taiwan and Australia have formed positive divergences.
India and U.S.
Surprisingly, Indian indices and the U.S. indices remain relatively weak. This is where we need to put our common sense to test. The entire correction began due to sentiment dampening all across the globe. This was largely due to Europe and China. When European and Major Asian Indices (closely linked to China) are showing positive divergence, it is more likely that the following week could see further upside. Globally when so many indices begin to show positive divergence, the signals need to be noted. Hence, the bias for next week does remain towards positive side.
What about medium term?
Well, on medium term horizon, currently there is no Global index which is in a Buy mode. Hence, the above mentioned points to remain valid for a week or two. On broader scale though, things havent changed that much. We still remain weak and we need to see whether the current upmove can take us into the Buying territory.
Lets see how things shape up. Weekends here and its time for me to get ready and hit some good restaurant/bar.
Have fun and Tc.
Agree with you completely raunak sir.
Although i dont track the world markets, but was just studying Nifty futures on volume and price movements. The last three 4 days when bull rally started, what we have witnessed on nifty according to my observation is as follow: -
25 may - we had a increase in volume and decrease in price range, which suggested a squat movement, from where the price reverses.
26 may - a weak day as the volume was decreased and range of price was slightly more, which suggested a fake move.
27 may - we had decrease in volume and another increase in range, which was another fake upmove.
28 may - We had decreased volume with decreased price range, which is a fader to the upmove.
The current rally according to me also is a weak rally, or just a fake rally again to trap the buyers. But ultimate boss is the price and volume. lets c if buyers come in at later stage with gud volumes.
Till now the upmove is having no strength. Even if i watch my CCI system, then it is at the place, where a reject can come to downside. 5040/5090 is the major resistance at 20 and 34 EMA. Even if we look at candle stick pattern then we have a indecision candle. None of the bull and bears were incharge of the flow. if the price falls below crosses below fridays low, then we might see a reversal. Above the high it can start an upmove.
Although i dont track the world markets, but was just studying Nifty futures on volume and price movements. The last three 4 days when bull rally started, what we have witnessed on nifty according to my observation is as follow: -
25 may - we had a increase in volume and decrease in price range, which suggested a squat movement, from where the price reverses.
26 may - a weak day as the volume was decreased and range of price was slightly more, which suggested a fake move.
27 may - we had decrease in volume and another increase in range, which was another fake upmove.
28 may - We had decreased volume with decreased price range, which is a fader to the upmove.
The current rally according to me also is a weak rally, or just a fake rally again to trap the buyers. But ultimate boss is the price and volume. lets c if buyers come in at later stage with gud volumes.
Till now the upmove is having no strength. Even if i watch my CCI system, then it is at the place, where a reject can come to downside. 5040/5090 is the major resistance at 20 and 34 EMA. Even if we look at candle stick pattern then we have a indecision candle. None of the bull and bears were incharge of the flow. if the price falls below crosses below fridays low, then we might see a reversal. Above the high it can start an upmove.
The volumes during expiry week ,tend to be very high and once the
expiry is over ,they will become normal.Just to give an example,just before
latest expiry ,a volume bar cutting both bands of bollinger measured 11lakhs
,after expiry it measured less than 1lakh on same time frame.(Minor variation
can be ascribed to difference in bands).
expiry is over ,they will become normal.Just to give an example,just before
latest expiry ,a volume bar cutting both bands of bollinger measured 11lakhs
,after expiry it measured less than 1lakh on same time frame.(Minor variation
can be ascribed to difference in bands).
Columbus Bhai,
for so many days there was shorting and shorting going on in the market. With this much shorting, where we see 100% retracement to the last rise, the volume should have been ultra high in the expiry days, as short would have got covered. But it was not the case. So considering the current situation, i dont think its rally good to upside. I will be short tomorrow below the firdays low, and long above fridays high with proper stoploss. Lets c what it gives us.
for so many days there was shorting and shorting going on in the market. With this much shorting, where we see 100% retracement to the last rise, the volume should have been ultra high in the expiry days, as short would have got covered. But it was not the case. So considering the current situation, i dont think its rally good to upside. I will be short tomorrow below the firdays low, and long above fridays high with proper stoploss. Lets c what it gives us.
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