Nifty: Daily Price Analysis

[scplindia]

I am a bit confused, why this major panic, just because Germany banned shorts on bonds. Euro seems to have stablised for now, job nos & other data in US, in the past have been always fluctuating. Sudden Panic WHY?

 

[simple_trader]

Chart wise, still NIFTY weekly chart is within a flat band. It is just that we made a move from upper band towards lower a bit faster (down moves are always faster I guess). It remains to be seen if we are going towards down ward break down. Chart wise, it may be suggesting, weekly chart still may remain in the flat range?

 

[scplindia]

Nimish & Raunak,

Have you noticed that the euro/usd chart has made a H&S pattern and bounced above the neck line. This could mean quite something, that may be europe has hit the bottom, but yes, any adverse news like Germany voting against the bailout package etc can change the pattern to failed H&S pattern and pull Europe further down. What comments do you have.

 

[SwingKing]

I am a bit confused, why this major panic, just because Germany banned shorts on bonds. Euro seems to have stablised for now, job nos & other data in US, in the past have been always fluctuating. Sudden Panic WHY?

We have been discussing the factors here for over 2-3 week now. I don't think the panic is "sudden". It was building up and finally it is happening.

Tc

 

[vijayakishorebabu]

Dear Raunak and AW10,

To day morning i closed my nifty short. Is it the time to entry long in nifty futures. Because no panic seen in indian markets when compare to dowzones and other europian markets. Our market is showing higher ressistance to fall. I think selling is absorbing. Am i right or not. ofcourse this is early to ask, because no signal at least from 30 minute charts. Waiting for your comments.

 

[trader.trends]

Dear Raunak and AW10,

To day morning i closed my nifty short. Is it the time to entry long in nifty futures. Because no panic seen in indian markets when compare to dowzones and other europian markets. Our market is showing higher ressistance to fall. I think selling is absorbing. Am i right or not. ofcourse this is early to ask, because no signal at least from 30 minute charts. Waiting for your comments.

Quote from Raunak's analysis of yesterday:

In my view, we are entering a phase where we could see a near term bottom soon. It could be made as early as tomorrow. I had given a broad range of 4800-4850 as near term low level and I feel it could be made tomorrow seeing the way how global markets are shaping up today.

Furthermore, I'd say that we are also in a zone (when a near term bottom is going to be made) where 'no trade' initiation is the best way to go forward. This particularly applies for novice traders. In such volatile conditions, nearly all systems fail and create draw downs on equity. Those who are able to make money in such situations are the one's who have prior experience of dealing in such market conditions. Hence, I'd warn amateur traders to not get carried away with the volatility glitter as this can lead to short term losses.

The emphasis is mine

 

[AW10]

Dear Raunak and AW10,

To day morning i closed my nifty short. Is it the time to entry long in nifty futures. Because no panic seen in indian markets when compare to dowzones and other europian markets. Our market is showing higher ressistance to fall. I think selling is absorbing. Am i right or not. ofcourse this is early to ask, because no signal at least from 30 minute charts. Waiting for your comments.

I would say, rather then predicting the market, start following it. Listen to it and it will give u enough clues of where is the opportunity.

And market has 3 moves = Up, down and sideway. So, your view of going long is biased, where it says, that mkt will either go down or up.
Hope you have your own concrete rules to make decision about "When the trend has reversed ?".
If not then, you are playing very dangerous game of going against the trend.

I do support contrarian trading but it is not for everybody. Profitable contrarian trading comes only after one has developed good relationship with mkt and can understand the internals of it.

Happy Trading.

 

[AW10]

I am a bit confused, why this major panic, just because Germany banned shorts on bonds. Euro seems to have stablised for now, job nos & other data in US, in the past have been always fluctuating. Sudden Panic WHY?

I think because the market looks at the future, not the present or past. Data is good, great - but that was histroy. Is data going to remain good ?
There is problem in EURO - fine. What/How is it going to affect the world in future ? will the world growth remain on upward trajectory or will it go down /sideway ? If World is not growing, then where will developing world sell their export and bring new money to their country ?

There are enough of uncertainty and market doesn't like that.

So rather then reading too much into it (though it is great intellectual challange).. it is much easier to go with the flow of market.

Happy Trading

 

[simple_trader]

Though my time targets are not proper, price has exactly played out as per explanation.

This is how we are placed now, 5100-5150 NF range will give swing resistance and in case we make a close below 200 DMA now, market would show what all are waiting for. I mean if we close below 4980, then we can see a mini crash in our market for possible down side 4500-4600 (not saying as trading target).

One needs to judge market accordingly now and play for it. There are two big supports 5000 PUT and 200 DMA.

Let's see how it plays out. 5200 on closing basis remains proper resistance level.

One should not trade by gut feel, still expiry week of May series can be bad for our market.

Market did reverse from 5100-5150 price range and in the 3rd time, it did break 200 DMA. It fell to 4850 range in intraday.

My own fresh view is as long as we are below 200 DMA on closing basis, market would remain weak in swing basis.

As far as if correction is over, I think it is not over yet. My weekly closing basis support is at 4700-4750 spot. daily support is at 4500-4600.

We have to see how it unfolds and trade next week. If market shows strength in intrday, we could play for upside with proper SL. Unless chart confirms, difficult to make committed long as yet for swing up move.

 

[SwingKing]

Nifty Price Analysis 24th May 2010

Nifty formed a classic pattern of indecision today. We had a good session in the morning until the scenario turned around in the last couple of hours of trade. Our broader range channel (highlighted in blue) remains intact and has acted as a support again. If somehow, this channel breaches, we could be heading towards much lower levels. On shorter term basis, Nifty faces stiff resistance at 5020 -5030 and 5070 - 5090 levels. As indicated before, sessions going ahead will remain choppy and volatile. It is not unusual to see this as at every rise traders would want to short the market and would also want to take some profits.

My view regarding the short term remains intact where I believe that we are in a 'No trade' zone. I feel the broader picture needs to be a little more clear before we can take a call ahead. Globally markets need to show some stability for other markets to start moving ahead.

Let's see how things shape up.