Nifty: Daily Price Analysis
- Thread starter SwingKing
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Sorry Raunak ji for writing my views in your thread. I will drop it after after 1-2 more updates. Please bear with me till then.
As expected NIFTY faced resistance at 200 DMA today and could not give a close above 200 DMA. At this point, I am slightly changing my view, we might be preparing for an upmove now. It would not happen immediately. We would making a base here and after that, we would make a up swing.
Upto expiry, I am expecting range bound move between 4880-5100 NF range.
Broadly I am expecting up swing in next series.
Happy trading!
As expected NIFTY faced resistance at 200 DMA today and could not give a close above 200 DMA. At this point, I am slightly changing my view, we might be preparing for an upmove now. It would not happen immediately. We would making a base here and after that, we would make a up swing.
Upto expiry, I am expecting range bound move between 4880-5100 NF range.
Broadly I am expecting up swing in next series.
Happy trading!
Nifty Price Analysis 25th May 2010
Nifty today broke our long term trending channel highlighted in blue. I would like to see decisive movement on the way down to validate this breach. However, there is no denying that markets are very fragile at the moment. Volumes were again high today, which by the way has been the usual way in this down leg.
By now, most of the traders and the investors have come to know that market's are in deep waters across the globe. Hence, the question now arises of how to play out this current situation. Well, my upcoming views will sound little pessemist to some, but my views are based on just historical price analysis and hence it should be taken in this context.
To begin with, I'd say this is not the time to BUY any stocks. Yes the stocks are getting cheap now, but it does not mean that they cannot get cheaper further. Stocks always look cheap, and hence this should not be considered as a factor to buy blindly. I think, an investor needs to wait till the broader picture improves. No matter how cheap the stock gets, it will not start rallying unless the broader tone starts getting positive. As far as traders are considered, I still maintain my stand of being in a no trade zone (especially buy trades). We are approaching a phase where we could see a good upmove (retracement), but pin pointing when this would happen remains difficult. Till we get further clues for swing trade, its better to be on the sidelines and watch the action.
Lets see how things shape up.
Nifty today broke our long term trending channel highlighted in blue. I would like to see decisive movement on the way down to validate this breach. However, there is no denying that markets are very fragile at the moment. Volumes were again high today, which by the way has been the usual way in this down leg.
By now, most of the traders and the investors have come to know that market's are in deep waters across the globe. Hence, the question now arises of how to play out this current situation. Well, my upcoming views will sound little pessemist to some, but my views are based on just historical price analysis and hence it should be taken in this context.
To begin with, I'd say this is not the time to BUY any stocks. Yes the stocks are getting cheap now, but it does not mean that they cannot get cheaper further. Stocks always look cheap, and hence this should not be considered as a factor to buy blindly. I think, an investor needs to wait till the broader picture improves. No matter how cheap the stock gets, it will not start rallying unless the broader tone starts getting positive. As far as traders are considered, I still maintain my stand of being in a no trade zone (especially buy trades). We are approaching a phase where we could see a good upmove (retracement), but pin pointing when this would happen remains difficult. Till we get further clues for swing trade, its better to be on the sidelines and watch the action.
Lets see how things shape up.
What is the hurry ? When we can get more bang for Rs.. then why to compromise now ?
Though it is personal choice.. but I think, before making any major next move up, market will go in accumulation mode.. (like it has done between Oct-08 till Mar-09). Kind of selling that we are seeing now, is not retail selling but professinal selling.. and will not allow market to go up before they buy the stocks back.
So when they accumulate, that will give us opportunity to accumulate as well. There are enough resistences that mkt have to break before telling us.. and as long as professionals are not buying, those breaks are not reliable.
infact, they have been selling from last 6 months the stocks that they accumulated earlier.. and to sell their portfolio, they had to keep market hot and not let it fall. Now their job is done.. and they are pushing it hard to new level where they will accumulate again.
Before last bull mkt start in 2003, we had nice sideway accumulation in 2002-2003.
Happy Trading
Though it is personal choice.. but I think, before making any major next move up, market will go in accumulation mode.. (like it has done between Oct-08 till Mar-09). Kind of selling that we are seeing now, is not retail selling but professinal selling.. and will not allow market to go up before they buy the stocks back.
So when they accumulate, that will give us opportunity to accumulate as well. There are enough resistences that mkt have to break before telling us.. and as long as professionals are not buying, those breaks are not reliable.
infact, they have been selling from last 6 months the stocks that they accumulated earlier.. and to sell their portfolio, they had to keep market hot and not let it fall. Now their job is done.. and they are pushing it hard to new level where they will accumulate again.
Before last bull mkt start in 2003, we had nice sideway accumulation in 2002-2003.
Happy Trading
Nifty Price Analysis 26th May 2010
Nifty bounced back yesterday and closed above the level of 4900. This is precisely why I had mentioned about a decisive close below the trading channel. Usually to avoid whipsaws, we should keep a % or fixed point criteria to filter out trades. Going forward, sessions will be volatile. Things are related too much to the global news flow and as and when the news changes, the markets will change the direction. This makes markets difficult to trade to. However, my one advise to those who want to trade is to shift to lower time frame charts. Such scenarios give good opportunity for short term trades and there is opportunity to make good amount of money if risk is properly managed.
Over the weekend I am planning to look at charts of global indices, currencies, some key stocks, commodities and bond data. Let's see how much things have changed over the period of 1-2 months. Since things are related so closely to global events, by analyzing the same, we could be in a better position to take a broader call on the markets. Furthermore, by doing so, we will also have a better feel for the market which in my opinion is as important as having the correct system or the correct psychological mindset.
Till then, keep your trades small, manage your risk and ride the short term swings.
Tc
Nifty bounced back yesterday and closed above the level of 4900. This is precisely why I had mentioned about a decisive close below the trading channel. Usually to avoid whipsaws, we should keep a % or fixed point criteria to filter out trades. Going forward, sessions will be volatile. Things are related too much to the global news flow and as and when the news changes, the markets will change the direction. This makes markets difficult to trade to. However, my one advise to those who want to trade is to shift to lower time frame charts. Such scenarios give good opportunity for short term trades and there is opportunity to make good amount of money if risk is properly managed.
Over the weekend I am planning to look at charts of global indices, currencies, some key stocks, commodities and bond data. Let's see how much things have changed over the period of 1-2 months. Since things are related so closely to global events, by analyzing the same, we could be in a better position to take a broader call on the markets. Furthermore, by doing so, we will also have a better feel for the market which in my opinion is as important as having the correct system or the correct psychological mindset.
Till then, keep your trades small, manage your risk and ride the short term swings.
Tc
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