Nifty: Daily Price Analysis

[praveen taneja]

Though my time targets are not proper, price has exactly played out as per explanation.

This is how we are placed now, 5100-5150 NF range will give swing resistance and in case we make a close below 200 DMA now, market would show what all are waiting for. I mean if we close below 4980, then we can see a mini crash in our market for possible down side 4500-4600 (not saying as trading target).

One needs to judge market accordingly now and play for it. There are two big supports 5000 PUT and 200 DMA.

Let's see how it plays out. 5200 on closing basis remains proper resistance level.

One should not trade by gut feel, still expiry week of May series can be bad for our market.

Indirect comment on me

 

[simple_trader]

Indirect comment on me

Nehi Praveen ji. I did not comment on anyone. That was my view only that expiry of May series could be bad (my gut feel). So I said that one should not trade by gut feel.

 

[SwingKing]

Nifty Price Analysis - 19th May 2010

What a session on the markets today. Session started on a weaker note and got worse towards the end. This was something that was just building up on the markets and it had to come. What we need to look out now is the future price movements. I think we could see 4800-4850 kind of levels pretty soon. From there on we need to watch market movement. I don't think we will stabilize so soon but yes we might get a bounce back from 4800-4850 levels. Today the volumes were huge. Now this has to be noticed. We are continuously having sessions where down days are seeing significant build up in volumes. Today was also one of those days where large cap futures and options stocks, which were really holding up during all these days begun to crack. Usually when this happens, we still have a fair amount of downside left in the system.

As of writing Europe is in complete mess. I will again repeat what I have been stating here earlier that EU crisis will not go away so easily. This is also having impact on broader range stocks and market indices. The way Gold is resisting fall, and moving higher suggests that investors/fund managers are seeking out investments in safer assets. This is not a good sign. If global sentiments worsen, then Gold too could get impacted. But the relative fall would be much lower. Euro continues to move down and with it continues to create widespread impact on global economies. Let's see how thing go forward.

 

[praveen taneja]

Nifty Price Analysis - 19th May 2010

What a session on the markets today. Session started on a weaker note and got worse towards the end. This was something that was just building up on the markets and it had to come. What we need to look out now is the future price movements. I think we could see 4800-4850 kind of levels pretty soon. From there on we need to watch market movement. I don't think we will stabilize so soon but yes we might get a bounce back from 4800-4850 levels. Today the volumes were huge. Now this has to be noticed. We are continuously having sessions where down days are seeing significant build up in volumes. Today was also one of those days where large cap futures and options stocks, which were really holding up during all these days begun to crack. Usually when this happens, we still have a fair amount of downside left in the system.

As of writing Europe is in complete mess. I will again repeat what I have been stating here earlier that EU crisis will not go away so easily. This is also having impact on broader range stocks and market indices. The way Gold is resisting fall, and moving higher suggests that investors/fund managers are seeking out investments in safer assets. This is not a good sign. If global sentiments worsen, then Gold too could get impacted. But the relative fall would be much lower. Euro continues to move down and with it continues to create widespread impact on global economies. Let's see how thing go forward.

Will post the chart later.

posted in morning reason for mess in EU mkt and asian mkt here

http://www.traderji.com/trading-psychology/39619-current-news-rumours-mkt-22.html

 

[SwingKing]

Nifty Price Analysis: 20th May 2010

Nifty formed an inside day session today and hence tomorrow's session becomes crucial for the very short term. Global markets are doing what they do best these days, i.e. to have highly volatile sessions and finally closing deep in the red. I think we are due for a volatile session tomorrow.

Broadly, the session remained extremely weak as markets continued to find stiff resistance in 4960-4980 band. This came as no surprise as that zone happens to coincide with 200 DMA which is often a key support resistance level. In my view, we are entering a phase where we could see a near term bottom soon. It could be made as early as tomorrow. I had given a broad range of 4800-4850 as near term low level and I feel it could be made tomorrow seeing the way how global markets are shaping up today.

Furthermore, I'd say that we are also in a zone (when a near term bottom is going to be made) where 'no trade' initiation is the best way to go forward. This particularly applies for novice traders. In such volatile conditions, nearly all systems fail and create draw downs on equity. Those who are able to make money in such situations are the one's who have prior experience of dealing in such market conditions. Hence, I'd warn amateur traders to not get carried away with the volatility glitter as this can lead to short term losses.

Let's see how tomorrow spans out.

 

[nimish_rulz]

Raunak Today we hit double bottom on FTSE too and it breached it and instantly bounced back. I want to open more shorts if we breach below it and long if we close above todays high because it was up 1.2% and formed a nice lower pivot high. Not sure is it the right time. My concern is: Dow has outperformed other indicies this fall and is now for this week failing to close towards its low. Today however it looks like it might close towards its low below its 200 DMA. Not clinging on to the low makes me slightly bullish that selling pressure is disappearing slowly. But my concerns:
The other thing is dow has fallen from a resistance of 3rd september 2008 which coincides with 26h April high. The fall that time was similar and aggressive. It took the dow down to 7500 and with lot of risk dumping going on Dollar Index rising and AUD being dumped as it was in Sept 2008, Do you feel we are going in for a massive fall. I am looking to close my long term positions tomorrow(These were buy hold positions but I guess we are in some serious down moves). My plan is that I am not going to buy shares I hold unless a.) I see nifty above 5000 now. b.) 2% above my selling price. Do you think I am making an early exit or wait and watch this week and take a decision on Monday tomorrow being the German meeting to confirm the bail out package would be provided or not. What markets are signalling is that bail out will fail.

 

[SwingKing]

Do you feel we are going in for a massive fall. Do you think I am making an early exit or wait and watch this week and take a decision on Monday.

Nimish,

Let me answer your questions in parts.

1. About having a massive fall - Nimish, this is very well on the cards. How many times do you find major bearish signals on nearly every global index? I had posted sometime earlier that such 'co-ordinated' signals need attention and usually point to deeper corrections. Moreover, look around the global indexes. Majority of them are not in bullish structure now. It is too early to say, but signs are pointing towards a short lived bear market.

But this is going to be slow and painful. We have already fallen quite a bit (almost nearing 600 points on Nifty) and going ahead I expect to see levels of 4400-4500 once 4800 is broken. Personally, I don't see market's falling beyond that.

2. About you exiting long's - Nimish I don't know how to tell you this. But, just go and visit my other thread. In that I had answered SaiVenkat's query where I had disclosed that I have sold off my investment portfolio. I did it when market's were around 5250-5300 levels. Back then I had mentioned that intermarket relationships between various asset classes are pointing towards adjustment of some asset classes. Going by the technical weakness, I had mentioned that Equities are going to correct for sure. What am trying to say is that you are very late in selling your stocks. I don't have a crystal ball in hand and I might change my opinion if facts change. But the fact as of now is that we are in a very very weak market.

If you delay selling your stock, you might see a bounce on Monday/Tuesday but you also need to weigh in the risks.

Hope this helps.

 

[nimish_rulz]

Nimish,

Let me answer your questions in parts.

1. About having a massive fall - Nimish, this is very well on the cards. How many times do you find major bearish signals on nearly every global index? I had posted sometime earlier that such 'co-ordinated' signals need attention and usually point to deeper corrections. Moreover, look around the global indexes. Majority of them are not in bullish structure now. It is too early to say, but signs are pointing towards a short lived bear market.

But this is going to be slow and painful. We have already fallen quite a bit (almost nearing 600 points on Nifty) and going ahead I expect to see levels of 4400-4500 once 4800 is broken. Personally, I don't see market's falling beyond that.

2. About you exiting long's - Nimish I don't know how to tell you this. But, just go and visit my other thread. In that I had answered SaiVenkat's query where I had disclosed that I have sold off my investment portfolio. I did it when market's were around 5250-5300 levels. Back then I had mentioned that intermarket relationships between various asset classes are pointing towards adjustment of some asset classes. Going by the technical weakness, I had mentioned that Equities are going to correct for sure. What am trying to say is that you are very late in selling your stocks. I don't have a crystal ball in hand and I might change my opinion if facts change. But the fact as of now is that we are in a very very weak market.

If you delay selling your stock, you might see a bounce on Monday/Tuesday but you also need to weigh in the risks.

Hope this helps.

Raunak I understand what you are saying. But What I want to know is how does all this affect us fundamentally besides some IT stocks. Also with the current 3g bid at these levels our budget deficit will come down straight away. The earnings this quarter will be better or Do you think the stock prices have factored everything in? I believe the fall has to come soon and be can be very aggressive in the coming days to start a leg up before the next earnings Result in july.

I expected markets to fall till first to second week of june and for dow to hit 8000-8500 it has to happen very quickly. The fall we have seen in the markets the level of volatility is amazing it seems like flash back to pre lehman and I am not able to get my head around what this event could be?

 

[SwingKing]

Raunak I understand what you are saying. But What I want to know is how does all this affect us fundamentally besides some IT stocks. Also with the current 3g bid at these levels our budget deficit will come down straight away. The earnings this quarter will be better or Do you think the stock prices have factored everything in? I believe the fall has to come soon and be can be very aggressive in the coming days to start a leg up before the next earnings Result in july.

I expected markets to fall till first to second week of june and for dow to hit 8000-8500 it has to happen very quickly. The fall we have seen in the markets the level of volatility is amazing it seems like flash back to pre lehman and I am not able to get my head around what this event could be?

Nimish, how did 2008 affect us ?? When Lehmann happened most of the analyst said we are safe. None could foresee what was unfolding. Now after events have happened we can relate as to how 2008 affected us. Similarly, how is 2010 affecting us?? Still we see all the analysts coming out and saying India is safe. It is only when the event happens, we would know how it impacted us. Discounting the impact of news is one of the most toughest and complex things to do. Analysts have to say as they have to justify the price action. It is their job, else no one will invite them for interviews.

Hope you get my point.

Tc

 

[pegasus]

Sir.
My thinking about the present scenario is even more grim. See in 2008 lehmann was main culprit the collapse of the financial sector which got bailed out by Uncle sam for a big price, then the turn of events had put their and the world economy in jeopardy. The greece problem- instead of letting the ill disciplined economy to die and rot the EU came up with a staggering rescue package. Now the package linked even the buzzing economies of EU to the dirty filthy PIGS economies. I don know what will happen to the great american bailout but the greece bailout is probably expected to fail. The failing of which will lead to failing of europe as a whole,after all divided they stand united they fall.once europe falls America would fall and then the world. Being a small part of this world we wont stay away.Like the last time this fall is not about a bank or a sector but governments and economies as a whole.The events of 2009 were called a recession was it actually a prelude of worse things to come are we staring down at a bigger badder recession.that makes me to stay away from getting invited to these falls....anyway the bear has bitten the bull many times over in my head its so injured that it will take time to heal. I would like to ask all new age ,self styled gurus especially raunakji what is his opinion over the matter?
Please don blame or abuse me to be too pessimistic I cant help being due to my sixth sense! FOR me levels of 4500 are too optimistic to be seen as a base. sensex could fall further even after june...please do think about this probable worst case scenario do tell whther you think that can happen if not do forgive this naive investor for asking such a silly query...