Nifty: Daily Price Analysis

[pegasus]

Pegasus,

Let me tell you something, "Ask a Doctor if performing Surgery is easy" or "Ask an engineer if constructing a sea - link is easy". They'll tell you one thing; With perseverance, discipline, dedication and correct education, they increase the odds of successfully completing their jobs. The answer to your question is the same as written above.

As far as chart's representing everything is concerned, I think you need to visit some books to understand why this is possible. Please remember, partial knowledge is more destructive than no knowledge at all.

Hope you get my point.

Tc

sir,
sir I get you very well indeed.I was just wondering what happened to our market after 3 pm today? any clues

 

[nimish_rulz]

sir,
sir I get you very well indeed.I was just wondering what happened to our market after 3 pm today? any clues

Spanish numbers came out for Inflation and they actually fell in deflationary scenario which puts the austerity measure in question hence the entire Europe tanked. I mentioned somewhere in the post that I expect the market to fall from Friday until the Greek bonds have been renewed on the 19th of May.

Besides their are other news coming out that Hedge Funds will be regulated in Europe which has caused panic in the FTSE 100 index showing a massive sell off. Although these are bearish news to accumulate the stock so that markets can rally later on. I dont expect the measures to be passed against the hedge fund as most of the UK economy comprises of financial sector and they cant afford to lose them.

In my view expect a couple of more down days or flat days where smart money buys stocks and then expect a huge upward move.

 

[nimish_rulz]

Couldnt agree more with you Raunak. EU economy is equivalent to US economy. However, have you noticed once thing there are far too many sell calls by big analysts and big banks downgrading lot of firms etc. To me this a very bullish and ominous signs in the market. However, I am still out of India market after it closed below 5150. Germany today went up quite a bit and is only 150 points down from its 52 week high. I think there is something cooking for maybe ECB Has directly intervened in the markets.

However the most important reason I find out for todays rally is this:

Spain passing its austerity measure and the bond yields of European region has fallen by:
UK yield fell by -0.36%(Fears of hung parliament retreating) which means price went up good signs,
French -0.1%
German +0.02%(Shows exiting safer bonds)
Greek -1% (Huge upmove for bond prices)
Italy -0.25%
Spain -0.03
Switzerland +0.02(Shows exiting safer bonds)
US +0.05(Shows exiting safer bonds)

Looking forward FTSE has a resistance at 5400 and a massive one at 5500 and 5630. Can form a head and shoulder pattern.

My view this week we might rally falling on friday onwards as Greece needs to renew its loan and pay its creditor on 19th of this month Big date!
For now long with narrow stops.
Got stopped out of FTSE still riding the Swiss 30. Copper still long exited 90% of the positions. India some futures contract no positions in Nifty unless it takes out 5220 closing basis which might be tomorrow.

FIIs are silent in the cash segment but buying lot of options derivatives position for FIIs is 34% of total outlying derivatives positions.

Even they are not sure hence using derivatives to protect and speculate on the market movements.

This is what I meant that we might fall friday onwards because of the date approaching close for Greek Debt renewal.

 

[pegasus]

thanks got the news just now!

 

[SwingKing]

Nifty Price Analysis - 14th May 2010

What started of with a flat session turned out to be very negative by the end. This was largely expected as market's have been weak over the past few weeks. Market breadth was terrible which indicated broad based selling in the market. I maintain my view that we are headed for much lower levels in coming sessions. This market which we are facing is certainly not a Bull market (especially since past 4-5 months) and hence any conservative investor must reconsider asset allocation in his portfolio.

Analysis of Asian market's depicts broad weakness lurking. European markets are indeed trading weak and with this global scenario in hindsight, next week's action should be very interesting. We have not seen a sustainable correction in this Bull market, and if one goes by basic Dow theory or EW analysis, we are due for correction either way. Corrections in Bull market's are extremely healthy and given the negativity in the system, it would not be a bad idea for the markets to correct significantly. Before this correction begun, I had mentioned in my post earlier that we could well be starting a corrective phase according to Elliot wave analysis. This opinion as of now is standing the test of time and hence we can state that we are currently in the Wave 5 of corrective wave A. If the A-B-C correction plays out, then we could bounce back from 4900-5000 levels and form wave B around 5150-5200 and then move down to form Wave C.

Let's see how things shape up.

 

[AW10]

Rauank, I do see the current market as you are mentioning.. We might be in wave 5 of this correction.. but what about the correction of major bull move that we had for 13 months since 2009-March low.

If I take the extreme view (Maybe I am one of the major bear in TJ), then we are in just 1st wave of 5 wave down (or wave A of ABC correction) of that bigger wave.. and this is just 1st leg is made up of 5 waves.. Whether it will remain as ABC correction of long bull run, or turn out into another 5 wave downward move ? - I can't say anything about that at this moment. My long term bearish stance is easily safe for next few months. By Q4-2010 we will really know the effect of RBI's rate increase which will give me indication of real growth in economy or not. Market is trading is at PE of 23, and even decent PE of 20 which is still higher then average PE, needs the market at 4500 level atleast. We might see bullish waves in-between, but intermediate trend remains down.

Lets see how it pans out. Sharing my views on bigger picture. Lets trade what we see in the current chart.

Happy Trading

 

[SwingKing]

Rauank, I do see the current market as you are mentioning.. We might be in wave 5 of this correction.. but what about the correction of major bull move that we had for 13 months since 2009-March low.

If I take the extreme view (Maybe I am one of the major bear in TJ), then we are in just 1st wave of 5 wave down (or wave A of ABC correction) of that bigger wave.. and this is just 1st leg is made up of 5 waves.. Whether it will remain as ABC correction of long bull run, or turn out into another 5 wave downward move ? - I can't say anything about that at this moment. My long term bearish stance is easily safe for next few months. By Q4-2010 we will really know the effect of RBI's rate increase which will give me indication of real growth in economy or not. Market is trading is at PE of 23, and even decent PE of 20 which is still higher then average PE, needs the market at 4500 level atleast. We might see bullish waves in-between, but intermediate trend remains down.

Lets see how it pans out. Sharing my views on bigger picture. Lets trade what we see in the current chart.

Happy Trading

Absolutely spot on. I have not posted about the larger picture because as you said I want things to get more clearer. And let me jump on the boat in which you are sailing as I am one of the major bear here as well. I think you must have got that from all my previous posts here in this thread.

Tc

 

[IAtma]

:gun2:

4800-4550:yahoo:

 

[simple_trader]

Rauank, I do see the current market as you are mentioning.. We might be in wave 5 of this correction.. but what about the correction of major bull move that we had for 13 months since 2009-March low.

If I take the extreme view (Maybe I am one of the major bear in TJ), then we are in just 1st wave of 5 wave down (or wave A of ABC correction) of that bigger wave.. and this is just 1st leg is made up of 5 waves.. Whether it will remain as ABC correction of long bull run, or turn out into another 5 wave downward move ? - I can't say anything about that at this moment. My long term bearish stance is easily safe for next few months. By Q4-2010 we will really know the effect of RBI's rate increase which will give me indication of real growth in economy or not. Market is trading is at PE of 23, and even decent PE of 20 which is still higher then average PE, needs the market at 4500 level atleast. We might see bullish waves in-between, but intermediate trend remains down.

Lets see how it pans out. Sharing my views on bigger picture. Lets trade what we see in the current chart.

Happy Trading

Do not know PE and fundamentals.

Going by my crude way of chart reading, it will be matter a few days (2-3 days) to fall to 4500-4600 once we have a close below 200 DMA (4980 spot currently). I mean it will be a sharp fall in case we close below 200 DMA now.

I do not know EW, it may be possible to see some bounce from 4980 again (say to around 5100-5150).

We may see that sharp down move after that. This is one of the possibilities.

We are indeed making a situation for 4500 soon. Though I wish to follow market than any specific target.

Happy trading!

 

[vijayakishorebabu]

Dear AW10 and raunakagarwal,

You people highly knowledged persons. I have taken nifty short on 4th may2010 and covered on 07th may 2010. Again i have taken 14th may2010. As per my view 4980 is the strong support, again fresh buying may comes. Actually i am ready to cover at that levels. At 4980 level if market makes congestion means we may hope it may go further low to 4800. I know international markets are in negative trend. May be some buying come at that level. I simply use trendlines and MA and patterns and candlestick analysis.

I would like to ask one question you both seniors and tremendous knowledge persons, whether market will honour all these elliot wave theories. Is it correct. I think it may be one of instrument in technical analysis and no more importance. Kindly through some light. If you say yes i will try to learn the elliot wave analysis ( i stopped to learn elliot wave analysis very long back )