Nifty: Daily Price Analysis

[SwingKing]

I am infact inclined towards that.. and I don't see this as minor ABC correction, After having nice 5 move up, we might be heading for 5 wave down, ..and 5 th wave of that might end at some fib % of 2250 to 5400 wave...

Happy Trading

It has to be seen where the market goes.

We have to factor in two things,

1) Contingency plans will be applied in full force. Humans are quick learners, and we can expect governments to have learnt a great deal from 2008 crisis.

2) Due to point 1, the correction (retracement) this time around will be a slow and grinding process. Pace of fall might not be similar to what we saw in 2008.

Tc

 

[praveen taneja]

It has to be seen where the market goes.

We have to factor in two things,

1) Contingency plans will be applied in full force. Humans are quick learners, and we can expect governments to have learnt a great deal from 2008 crisis.

2) Due to point 1, the correction (retracement) this time around will be a slow and grinding process. Pace of fall might not be similar to what we saw in 2008.

Tc

Dont know muchabout TA but know everything go up with speed then slow then stop then slowly fall and then fall with double speed
Most of govts which learned in that time now out of seat and babus are never there to learn they are there to dictate till they have bribe they care for none leave away stock mkt or nifty or inflation
sorry but cant resist myself to post after watching ur post sir

 

[rajputz]

Actually i was reading Trading chaos few days back, and in that the Author introduced Elliot Waves to look at the bigger picture of the market, and also how to take the exact entry with it. Some five points that he considered for the change in trend were: -

1. Fractals
2. Considering Elliot Inside Bigger Elliot.
3. MFI Volume price Divergence.
4. Squat.
5. last one i cant remeber yet....

he calls them the bullet

when he was explaining the elliot wave, he considered the 5th wave to be the most profitable one, as it produces the maximum gain, if caught properly. To get the most and timely out of the wave 5 he considered to take the profit target and exit. So the target he mentioned was price between 127-171% or points from A-C. Although i forgot that Wave 5 in this case has already achieved 127%.

 

[AW10]

It has to be seen where the market goes.

We have to factor in two things,

1) Contingency plans will be applied in full force. Humans are quick learners, and we can expect governments to have learnt a great deal from 2008 crisis.

2) Due to point 1, the correction (retracement) this time around will be a slow and grinding process. Pace of fall might not be similar to what we saw in 2008.

Tc

Raunak, I have different view on point 1)..
- Human being have big ego.. and it is difficult to change their view quickly.
First stage of change is - denial, and then acceptance comes far later..
In Wave theory, only by mid of 3rd wave, when wave 2 low is broken, then some of them will realise the fact.. And most of them will join in Wave 5..

And Govt ? I am sure u must have seen the outout of latest G20 meet. All big talks that they did in 2008, is of no use now.. Each conuntry is ready to go their own way.. Germany's ban on short selling without talking to other EU nations is indication of european solidarity.. and G20 abolishing Global Bank Levy is sign of their committment to control Banks Greed and taking care of taxpayers.

Interesting stuff to watch....
Ofcourse - I do agree with you that fall may not be that steep.. but wave 3 is always slower then wave 1...but it is the longest wave. Good part is that in bear market, all waves are shorter then Bull market..

Lets see what market unfolds..
Happy Trading

 

[SwingKing]

And Govt ? I am sure u must have seen the outout of latest G20 meet. All big talks that they did in 2008, is of no use now.. Each conuntry is ready to go their own way..

:lol: You remind me of one professor I had in London who once said "Burn the throne and burn the governments, lest Britain will not survive".


I think you are right.

Tc

 

[pegasus]

even after a massive fall yesterday dow falls another 100 points.Finally It looks as now the markets got the direction to move...

 

[scplindia]

Raunakji,

Waiting for your analysis.

 

[SwingKing]

Nifty Price Analysis 8th May 2010

Negativity continues in the Indian Markets and the Global markets where uncertainty regarding the European crisis now seems a 'Certainty'. On broader note, nothing much has changed. We remain range bound in our channel and the current swing high meets resistance from the trendline (see the chart).

For the first time, I have plotted an Indicator in my chart and the reason is that we are in a trendless market and such indicators seem to do very well in such conditions. Plotted below is a Stochastic Oscillator with standard settings. Any user Buying/Selling based on the standard signals would have done very well. Even, going forward,I'd say the stochastic/Macd crossover will generate profits with high accuracy. Just remember to keep your stops tight and ride the momentum wave.

Doubting your System

There may be a few readers in this forum who strictly follow rules and trade. For them, especially if they are using a trend following system, this period of time would be very hard. I myself follow some swing rules (only for the buy side) and let me tell you I am running into my 4th consecutive loss trade as of closing. The reason I want to mention this is because we need to have conviction in what we have created. We need to be disciplined and systematic. Such phases will come and pass by and if we stick to our rules, then we will emerge winner in the end. This is typically a phase, where one begins to doubt his system. Hence, be consistent and be patient.

Please bear in mind that this post regarding systems assume that even in the worst possible years, it would generate a net profit (Yes, such systems are possible). Hence, I write assuming that you indeed have a system which you understand well in boom and boon years. Also, you understand its behavioral aspects in different market situations.

P.S. - I had received a PM yesterday regarding a user doubting his system and hence instead of taking his name here, I thought this post would benefit all. Also, the actual Nifty closing price would be different from what I have mentioned here.

Tc

 

[vijayakishorebabu]

BY RAUNAK AGARWAL
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I myself follow some swing rules (only for the buy side) and let me tell you I am running into my 4th consecutive loss trade as of closing. The reason I want to mention this is because we need to have conviction in what we have created.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Raunak so many followers to this thread. Hats of to your honesty in the above message.

In this regard i would like to tell some thing about my trades. I have taken my first short on nifty on 28th april and closed with profit. second short on nifty on 14th may also closed with good profit. Third short on 1st june and covered on 3rd june with 6700/- loss. Yesterday i taken short on hindalco futures at 140.75. Today i covered at 139.70 at 1.30 P.M due to powercut in my area so that i cannot open my system eventhough i got some profit.But afterwards it gone to 132.15 at closing. if i was upto closing i may get 30,000/- appx. But these are the things will happen in stock market. Actually after seen the raunak message i got feeling why i should not share my experiences with others. That is why i shared some of my experiences.

 

[AW10]

BY RAUNAK AGARWAL
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I myself follow some swing rules (only for the buy side) and let me tell you I am running into my 4th consecutive loss trade as of closing. The reason I want to mention this is because we need to have conviction in what we have created.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Raunak so many followers to this thread. Hats of to your honesty in the above message.

In this regard i would like to tell some thing about my trades. I have taken my first short on nifty on 28th april and closed with profit. second short on nifty on 14th may also closed with good profit. Third short on 1st june and covered on 3rd june with 6700/- loss. Yesterday i taken short on hindalco futures at 140.75. Today i covered at 139.70 at 1.30 P.M due to powercut in my area so that i cannot open my system eventhough i got some profit.But afterwards it gone to 132.15 at closing. if i was upto closing i may get 30,000/- appx. But these are the things will happen in stock market. Actually after seen the raunak message i got feeling why i should not share my experiences with others. That is why i shared some of my experiences.

Thanks vijayakishorebabu and Raunak.. to talk about your loosing trades as well.
It is fact of trading that we will have them..

TJ is full of stuff, where people talk about only winners.. Good to see you guys telling story from other side of coin as well.

Happy Trading