Nifty: Daily Price Analysis

[AW10]

Here again, i agree with you. we should try to trade index. But I feel it not always easy to trade NF, specially when range bound. then I think better to look at opportunities out side the index, when NF signals are not clear. Please consider the fact that new traders have more itching to trade daily that exp traders.

Without getting the basics right at first stage, it is dangerous to jumping from one stock to another..
That is why I always suggest newbeee to focus on just 1 chart, and save time in jumping from 1 stock to stock and trying to answer eternal question - which is the best stock to trade ?

If they are going by the rules, then on sideway days, those rules should keep them away, or give minimum loss.. Newbees, if they can preserve their account on sideway day, that is big achievement in my view.

As you are experienced, then your approach is perfect.. We have to find best instrument that gives the opportunity.. so if nifty is not moving, somethign else is always moving.

Hope this helps others..

Happy Trading.

 

[SwingKing]

Raunak Sir, thanks for another gem from you.

Can you create one complete system covering all points of ur framework for any one of the trader personality type and post here. This would help traders like us in designing a system.

thnx

Adi,

What you can do is try and create something on your own. Share the system here and take feedback of other users. I think this way you will learn something and you will also have something which you have created. I dont think users here will be hesitant to guide you.

Hope you get my point.

Tc

 

[SwingKing]

Nifty Price Analysis 9th May 2010

Another volatile and dull session for the market's today. The volumes were good and the advance/decline ratio was towards the positive side. The oscillators mentioned yesterday have turned down as of now and if markets continue to remain weak, then one can go short below 4960 for day trade or a swing trade.

Globally we are now poised at a very critical level. We are certainly on a threshold where the line between a Bull market and a Bear market is pretty much evident. Historically, whenever the Western Indices, particularly the U.S. has corrected more than 15-17%, it signifies start of a Bear market. This is something which has worked with a good accuracy of about 80% of the time. Currently we sit at a 13% correction in the U.S. which is precariously close to the 15-17% band. We surely need to keep this on our radar going forward.

Governments all over the globe are perhaps realizing the fact that by cutting spending during Economy recovery they are going to do more harm than good. The reason for this is simple; If spending is reduced, this will directly depress the Economy further and fiscal contraction will also impact the tax payments received. There is no doubting the fact that Governments themselves are in a tight fix now. This is precisely why all over the globe markets are facing bouts of uncertainty. It's yet to be seen how market's will react to this in future.

Let's see how things span out going forward.

P.S. - Nifty Closing might differ from what seen on the chart.

 

[vssoma]

Without getting the basics right at first stage, it is dangerous to jumping from one stock to another..
That is why I always suggest newbeee to focus on just 1 chart, and save time in jumping from 1 stock to stock and trying to answer eternal question - which is the best stock to trade ?

If they are going by the rules, then on sideway days, those rules should keep them away, or give minimum loss.. Newbees, if they can preserve their account on sideway day, that is big achievement in my view.

As you are experienced, then your approach is perfect.. We have to find best instrument that gives the opportunity.. so if nifty is not moving, somethign else is always moving.

Hope this helps others..

Happy Trading.

dear,
:clap: :clap: :clap:

 

[SwingKing]

Nifty Daily Price Analysis 10th June 2010

Market's closed up today with handsome gains. So did the other broad based market indices. Majority of the Stock futures along with Index futures saw addition of open interest from previous levels. Going forward our broad based channel is going to provide support and the falling trend line will offer significant resistance.

Globally, I'd say majority of Indices have started their bear phase. Including the U.S. some of the other major indices as Austria, Brazil, Cac, Canada, UK, Hang Seng, China, Russia and Japan are all well into a bear phase. Now, since the charts of these countries is so bearish, we need a confirmation from a non related indicator.

When looking for one, I found two Indexes, the Dollar Index and Gold. Dollar Index and Gold Index are in secular Bull phase. This essentially means that going forward INR will be moving and reaching for levels of 51-53. Dollar Index and Gold Index usually do very well in market scenarios where risk go up. Gold broke out of the broad range in October, this is when the global indices stopped moving forward. Dollar Index has started going up in 2010, way before the PIGS nation news broke out. Now, Dollar Index seems to be renewing its upward journey. Given what is going in the World, we should be expecting equities to correct furthermore. India, Indonesia and Chille Index seem to be holding up quite well. It has to be seen if this can be taken forward. My stand regarding the markets still remain the same. I am expecting to see 4400 - 4500 kind of levels.

Let's see how things shape up.

 

[rrmhatre72]

My stand regarding the markets still remain the same. I am expecting to see 4400 - 4500 kind of levels.

Hi Raunak,

This analysis help lot.
What is the expected timeframe for the levels inidcated by you?

 

[nimish_rulz]

What baffles me even more is what has changed in India besides the 3g auction that we are witnessing so much strength. Last time dow reached 9830 we were at 4675 levels in Feb. UK Ftse and India's gap for last 1 year or so has been 300 points extra on FTSE. Today we are virtually at the same position. This shows outpefromance by India. Similarly when the markets moved up we under performed maybe that is why we are not falling so much. But again I expect this outpeformance to get changed soon. Our markets close higher everyday last few days because dow futures goes up not the actual dow which is even more worrying for the fake rally while both FIIs and DIIs are selling in these minor rallies. I have a major resistance at 5105 levels on Nifty and then the downward sloping trendline.

 

[simple_trader]

Without getting the basics right at first stage, it is dangerous to jumping from one stock to another..
That is why I always suggest newbeee to focus on just 1 chart, and save time in jumping from 1 stock to stock and trying to answer eternal question - which is the best stock to trade ?

If they are going by the rules, then on sideway days, those rules should keep them away, or give minimum loss.. Newbees, if they can preserve their account on sideway day, that is big achievement in my view.

As you are experienced, then your approach is perfect.. We have to find best instrument that gives the opportunity.. so if nifty is not moving, somethign else is always moving.

Hope this helps others..

Happy Trading.

Dear AW10,

I beg to differ in this case. What I feel that one can try with a simple strategy and if NIFTY does not satisfy those conditions, then it is better to move on stocks. If we try with single chart, sometime chart may not be clear for taking trades. Ok if someone is ready to stay out, then fine. However, as far as know many do not do that. Someone does not want to stay out for long, then better to look at opportunities in other charts.


There are different risks in trading stocks than index. Some examples, ABAN gapped down more 20%, ABB gapped up 20%, ONGC gapped up 10%. These are big killer if anyone is in wrong footing. These risks are normally not there in the index.

Happy trading!

 

[pegasus]

Nifty Daily Price Analysis 10th June 2010

Market's closed up today with handsome gains. So did the other broad based market indices. Majority of the Stock futures along with Index futures saw addition of open interest from previous levels. Going forward our broad based channel is going to provide support and the falling trend line will offer significant resistance.

Globally, I'd say majority of Indices have started their bear phase. Including the U.S. some of the other major indices as Austria, Brazil, Cac, Canada, UK, Hang Seng, China, Russia and Japan are all well into a bear phase. Now, since the charts of these countries is so bearish, we need a confirmation from a non related indicator.

When looking for one, I found two Indexes, the Dollar Index and Gold. Dollar Index and Gold Index are in secular Bull phase. This essentially means that going forward INR will be moving and reaching for levels of 51-53. Dollar Index and Gold Index usually do very well in market scenarios where risk go up. Gold broke out of the broad range in October, this is when the global indices stopped moving forward. Dollar Index has started going up in 2010, way before the PIGS nation news broke out. Now, Dollar Index seems to be renewing its upward journey. Given what is going in the World, we should be expecting equities to correct furthermore. India, Indonesia and Chille Index seem to be holding up quite well. It has to be seen if this can be taken forward. My stand regarding the markets still remain the same. I am expecting to see 4400 - 4500 kind of levels.

Let's see how things shape up.

[/QUOTE

Could not agree with you more...with dow jones so reluctant to move up for the past few trading sessions. Late selling being a hallmark on NYSE we should see them in a bear market. Why we dont follow them is the big question? That I leave to our gurus .Still I consider that correction is expected soon and these rallies should be utilized to move out of the market..anyone seeking my advise would get only one reply,'dont get sucked into this hysteria' what do you think experts!

 

[AW10]

Dear AW10,

I beg to differ in this case. What I feel that one can try with a simple strategy and if NIFTY does not satisfy those conditions, then it is better to move on stocks. If we try with single chart, sometime chart may not be clear for taking trades. Ok if someone is ready to stay out, then fine. However, as far as know many do not do that. Someone does not want to stay out for long, then better to look at opportunities in other charts.


There are different risks in trading stocks than index. Some examples, ABAN gapped down more 20%, ABB gapped up 20%, ONGC gapped up 10%. These are big killer if anyone is in wrong footing. These risks are normally not there in the index.

Happy trading!

Let us agree to disagree.
We have different belief/views..and they are not going to change so easily. So lets move on and leave this thread dedicated to its purpose.

Happy Trading.