Nifty: Daily Price Analysis

[scplindia]

Raunakji,

We seem to be heading north for the last 4 to 5 days, is this trend reversal as per charts.

Thanks
Prem Kumar

 

[SwingKing]

Raunakji,

We seem to be heading north for the last 4 to 5 days, is this trend reversal as per charts.

Thanks
Prem Kumar

In my previous posts I have already given the answer to this dear. Watching some levels. So, lets see what happens ahead.

Tc

 

[AW10]

Re: Bank Nifty and Nifty Comparative Volatility

Thanks Raunak, for sharing the Comparative Volatilty chart.
Happy Trading

 

[SwingKing]

Nifty Price Analysis 14th June 2010

Markets continued its journey upwards. Market's have also formed "Three white Soldiers" pattern today which usually signifies continuation in trend. The advance decline numbers were very healthy and the shape of the bar/candle in itself depicted underlying bullish note. Few days back I had posted about Bullish divergence on the Weekly chart and had mentioned that this could help us form the Wave 'C' of the A-B-C correction. I still feel this is precisely what is happening.

Our downward sloping trendline got violated today as the Index closed above it. It needs to be seen if this can be maintained in the coming few sessions. I am still watching broader band of 5200 - 5230 on the Nifty and 10500 on the Dow. Nifty in particular stands a good chance of violating the concerned level. If this happens, I would be squaring off my short positions and would wait on the sidelines. I would not be going long immediately as I would want 5399 to be taken out first. This would suggest continuation in the trend and hence I would build long positions beyond that level. If 5399 is not broken, and the market slips below, then I would again open up the shorts.

Its been an enjoyable ride psychologically, but I guess market pays you for being in discomfort most of the times. This does not mean just blindly taking up positions, but it means being objective and analytical. Fortunately, I belong to the latter category and hence will stick to my positions till the market suggests otherwise. Lets see how things shape up ahead.

Tc

 

[scplindia]

Thanks Raunakji,

For this very nice explanation of today's performance. I am also carrying short positions, as I was also quite bearish, now, getting a feeling it is time to exit, as some of the ADAG stocks have shown quite a bull run today, next it is for RIL to show the bull run to 1200. Would appreciate, if you can post, live during market hours, as and when you think it is time to quit short positions, as it will also help me.

Today FTSE, UK is not showing strength compared to the other world markets, any idea why ?

Thanks
\
Prem Kumar

 

[SwingKing]

Thanks Raunakji,

For this very nice explanation of today's performance. I am also carrying short positions, as I was also quite bearish, now, getting a feeling it is time to exit, as some of the ADAG stocks have shown quite a bull run today, next it is for RIL to show the bull run to 1200. Would appreciate, if you can post, live during market hours, as and when you think it is time to quit short positions, as it will also help me.

Today FTSE, UK is not showing strength compared to the other world markets, any idea why ?

Thanks
\
Prem Kumar

Dear Prem Kumar,

I don't track fundamentals on UK economy. Neither do I analyze the news behind why UK moves or does not move. I think AW10 would be able to help you on this.

Tc

 

[AW10]

In the UK, new government is giving interim british economic policy tomorrow. Most likely they are going to slash the highly optimistic numbers given by prev govt.
consumer confidence number, british industrial production numbers etc are also due.

And on top of all - Football World Cup has started.
Historically this has been trend that during major sports event, trading volume goes down (just read it recently).
Low volume means high volatility.. just because it takes comparetively lot less effort to move the market.

Happy Trading

 

[Esse]

Dear Raunak,
Seeing todays FII figures esp the futures one, I am of the opinion that mkts are definitely going to be up in the coming few sessions. This is because of the fact that FII buy figures in the index futures is double that of the sell figures.
Buy : 2810.68 Cr
Sell : 1494.61 Cr
I am not as knowledgable as you about the technical trends but this is my opinion. By the way i am on shorts from very low levels


Thanks

 

[SwingKing]

Dear Raunak,
Seeing todays FII figures esp the futures one, I am of the opinion that mkts are definitely going to be up in the coming few sessions. This is because of the fact that FII buy figures in the index futures is double that of the sell figures.
Buy : 2810.68 Cr
Sell : 1494.61 Cr
I am not as knowledgable as you about the technical trends but this is my opinion. By the way i am on shorts from very low levels
Thanks

Dear Esse,

You may well be right. My analysis and my knowledge is as good as yours or as any other trader. It is just that I have lost way many more times than you and hence I may be experienced.

Need to see how things will move forward.

Tc.

 

[simple_trader]

I think it is better to be bearish after NIFTY touches 5500-5550 range around. We are in the process of range expansion. When next down move happens, we may break those lows. All are used to tight ranges, which may not be the case in near future!

Happy trading!