Nifty: Daily Price Analysis

[aryan.]

I think it is better to be bearish after NIFTY touches 5500-5550 range around. We are in the process of range expansion. When next down move happens, we may break those lows. All are used to tight ranges, which may not be the case in near future!

Happy trading!

Nifty has not even crossed 5200 and you are jumping to 5500 now.

 

[linkon7]

Bias always kills...

As most of the time we feel our own analysis is reinforced by the beliefs of other persons who's opinion we respect. This gives rise to the security in numbers and then every loss trade is treasured with the HOPE that sooner or later, market will see things the way we feel, and our losers will become very big gainers.

As market keeps going against us, we try to salvage some pride by averaging our positions and still refuse to listen to the aspect of the chart thats telling us to get out of the positions. Instead we focus on the OSCILATORS that tells us market is in extreame conditions and a turn is due....

Finally, when the hope mode turns to DESPERATION-to-get-out mode... thats exactly the level, markets decide to turn around...

How many of us, promised to rectify this error in judgment and still continue to repeat the same mistake again and again, yet expecting different results...

My reason for posting this note here is because i see so many people holding shorts simply because Raunak or AW10 has a bearish view. What they dont realise is that they are very smart with their money management and have endured enough beatings from the market that they can work their way out of any mess. My heart goes out to those who are on the verge of bursting their trading account or has damaged it severely...

I myself have posted a few bearish views on this forum and I find myself guilty of encouraging the inexperienced to hold on to losers...

I remember Raunak admitting to a few bad trades in a row, and a flood of tears came from many, simply because they too had a bad series and now they found one-ness with him... without realising that Raunak has time and again mentioned that he is a long time frame player. His views span into months. He is a swing trader who knows what he is doing. He doesnt mind market proving him wrong as he will adjust his positions accordingly... and will come out without any bruises....

AW10 is GOD of options and i doubt he'll ever get his Risk management wrong...

They are pointing to the moon, while we are looking at the finger pointing to the moon...

our eyes sees what it wants to see....!

ps : sorry if i have offended anyone...

 

[simple_trader]

Nifty has not even crossed 5200 and you are jumping to 5500 now.

I have been saying that for sometime, nothing to do with 5200

Go with the market flow and make money, let market go anywhere.

All are biased towards down side, I guess. So it seems 4500 looks nearer than 5500 (though mathematically it is not).

Funny thing is 4500 PUT which is 700 points far, is still selling at higher price than 5500 call which is 300 points away.

Happy trading!


-----

Just to add a few more things, still 5200 call June has highest OI. Need to give some respect till is loses OI. Some trend lines are merging at 5230 spot around.

 

[D_arjun]

i feel market will go down tomorrow and in near future.

 

[laxsri]

Raunak Ji,

Can this be called as divergence? Pls suggest.
Link is @ - http://img821.imageshack.us/img821/3558/eurusd.jpg

 

[laxsri]

I am extremely sorry if you feel this is not the right thread to discuss divergence. But just after I posted the previous post & chart, I found this pattern, should this also be called as divergence?

Also, Pls let me know if we see a peak in the price column, should there be a peak or trough in the indicator too @ the same level or can it be a bit before or after.

Please suggest.

Link: http://img820.imageshack.us/img820/3558/eurusd.jpg

 

[scplindia]

Now Greece Downgrade to Junk and double digit inflation, needs to be factored into the price. Cannot think of 5500, unless 5400 is taken out. Today may be a down day due the greek factor, and inflation which was ingnored yesterday due to global cues.

 

[SwingKing]

I am extremely sorry if you feel this is not the right thread to discuss divergence. But just after I posted the previous post & chart, I found this pattern, should this also be called as divergence?

Also, Pls let me know if we see a peak in the price column, should there be a peak or trough in the indicator too @ the same level or can it be a bit before or after.

Please suggest.

Link: http://img820.imageshack.us/img820/3558/eurusd.jpg

Laxsri,

This can be called as divergence. However, keep your indicator settings standard. If you are using stochastic on daily time frame keep it as 15,3,3. Don't try and tweak the values. If you are using smaller time frames (hourly, 30min,5min) chart then use 9,3,3. These settings are widely used and its better to follow them.

Tc

 

[SwingKing]

Bias always kills...

As most of the time we feel our own analysis is reinforced by the beliefs of other persons who's opinion we respect. This gives rise to the security in numbers and then every loss trade is treasured with the HOPE that sooner or later, market will see things the way we feel, and our losers will become very big gainers.

ps : sorry if i have offended anyone...

Thanks Linkon7 for writing this so well.

Guys, what we discuss here is just one way for the markets to probably react. There are no certainties here. So please think twice before taking positions based on what I post. As Linkon said, my positions are well stretched out in time and are hedged, hence I ensure even if I loose, I remain in the game to fight again. My account size makes me take series of losses and hence I am able to withstand drawdowns. My time frame of trading also varies from most of you and I remain in markets for a longer duration enduring more risks.

So please think on your own and use this as my Nifty Investing Journal. For educative purpose only.

Thanks Linkon for bringing this up. Least thing I ever want is for others to loose money because of me.

Tc

 

[rrmhatre72]

Bias always kills...

As most of the time we feel our own analysis is reinforced by the beliefs of other persons who's opinion we respect. This gives rise to the security in numbers and then every loss trade is treasured with the HOPE that sooner or later, market will see things the way we feel, and our losers will become very big gainers.

As market keeps going against us, we try to salvage some pride by averaging our positions and still refuse to listen to the aspect of the chart thats telling us to get out of the positions. Instead we focus on the OSCILATORS that tells us market is in extreame conditions and a turn is due....

Finally, when the hope mode turns to DESPERATION-to-get-out mode... thats exactly the level, markets decide to turn around...

How many of us, promised to rectify this error in judgment and still continue to repeat the same mistake again and again, yet expecting different results...

My reason for posting this note here is because i see so many people holding shorts simply because Raunak or AW10 has a bearish view. What they dont realise is that they are very smart with their money management and have endured enough beatings from the market that they can work their way out of any mess. My heart goes out to those who are on the verge of bursting their trading account or has damaged it severely...

I myself have posted a few bearish views on this forum and I find myself guilty of encouraging the inexperienced to hold on to losers...

I remember Raunak admitting to a few bad trades in a row, and a flood of tears came from many, simply because they too had a bad series and now they found one-ness with him... without realising that Raunak has time and again mentioned that he is a long time frame player. His views span into months. He is a swing trader who knows what he is doing. He doesnt mind market proving him wrong as he will adjust his positions accordingly... and will come out without any bruises....

AW10 is GOD of options and i doubt he'll ever get his Risk management wrong...

They are pointing to the moon, while we are looking at the finger pointing to the moon...

our eyes sees what it wants to see....!

ps : sorry if i have offended anyone...

Hi Linkon,

Too good analysis of relatively inexperience traders......

Appreciate if we can get some money/risk management lessons......
Simple step is to get exited in loss... OR work around something which will help in retaining position....

As rightly said I have seen many memebers are holding short position at this moment..... Any suggestion on money management for them...