Nifty: Daily Price Analysis

[vssoma]

All,

Again here is a tortoise in the race requesting for some information. Please advice me settings for intraday trading in a 5 min TF for Stochastic and MACD. I browsed through various sources in the internet and got different opinions, the problem is with my experience not allowing me to take a judgement on what should be considered as the right one.

Can I be guided? Pls.....................

dear
check this
http://www.traderji.com/day-trading/40980-my-daytrading.html
good luck...

 

[AW10]

Bias always kills...

As most of the time we feel our own analysis is reinforced by the beliefs of other persons who's opinion we respect. This gives rise to the security in numbers and then every loss trade is treasured with the HOPE that sooner or later, market will see things the way we feel, and our losers will become very big gainers.

As market keeps going against us, we try to salvage some pride by averaging our positions and still refuse to listen to the aspect of the chart thats telling us to get out of the positions. Instead we focus on the OSCILATORS that tells us market is in extreame conditions and a turn is due....

Finally, when the hope mode turns to DESPERATION-to-get-out mode... thats exactly the level, markets decide to turn around...

How many of us, promised to rectify this error in judgment and still continue to repeat the same mistake again and again, yet expecting different results...

My reason for posting this note here is because i see so many people holding shorts simply because Raunak or AW10 has a bearish view. What they dont realise is that they are very smart with their money management and have endured enough beatings from the market that they can work their way out of any mess. My heart goes out to those who are on the verge of bursting their trading account or has damaged it severely...

I myself have posted a few bearish views on this forum and I find myself guilty of encouraging the inexperienced to hold on to losers...

I remember Raunak admitting to a few bad trades in a row, and a flood of tears came from many, simply because they too had a bad series and now they found one-ness with him... without realising that Raunak has time and again mentioned that he is a long time frame player. His views span into months. He is a swing trader who knows what he is doing. He doesnt mind market proving him wrong as he will adjust his positions accordingly... and will come out without any bruises....

AW10 is xxx of options and i doubt he'll ever get his Risk management wrong...

They are pointing to the moon, while we are looking at the finger pointing to the moon...

our eyes sees what it wants to see....!

ps : sorry if i have offended anyone...

Thanks Linkon for raising very valid point.
Just made me realise that there may be some people who are using this thread and content shared by raunauk, me or others here in their trading.
And quite possible, when the trade is running in loss, then they might be finding this thread as reasons to hold on to the lossing thread.

Just to reiterate, A Trader should take his/her own trading decision after analysing the relevent facts. And even before entering the trade, HE/SHE should know the exit points.. (more importantaly stoploss exit).
Very first and important question that has to be addressed is - WHAT IS THE TIMEFRAME ?

And all decision should be based on that timeframe..
What is being discussed here is bigger picture... It is not the picture of tomorrow or of next week. And market can very move 3to 4% in next day, or about 15% in next 1 week.

So even if Raunak or I continue with our bearish story here, it is quite possible that someone might blow the account by not understanding the timeframe.. and holding on to the bearish position.

So Guys, please take care of your account and follow strict risk and money management.

For me, just 1 penetration of trend line, or 1 day or 1 week of close does not change big picture immediately. For me the break of 5150 is real when market retraces after the break of trend line, stops above 5150 and starts going up. Till then it could very well be a false breakout. People might have different views on it.. but that's how I look at trend reversal. I have well defined points that tell me when to relax, when to get on alert mode and when to take action. Currently I am in alert mode.


Raunak has clealy mentioned about his trading timeframe and his style of trading.

As far as my trading is concerned, I take positional trade (going into weeks) as well swing trades (majority of them going beyond 2 days). Because of this style, I am holding short July Future, and long June futures.

I initiated positional trade to go short around 5165 level yesterday, and got stopped out in reversal and took the hit of 15 points.
Same happened today when short initated in 5190/5195 zone got stopped out and i took another hit of 15 points.

These hits are as per my rules and well within my systems. While I am targetting few 100 points of gain in positional trades, few such wrong entries are not a problem. They are as per normal behaviour of my system. When I take such contrarian entries, I do protect them with options (currently I am holding short 5200 PUT option position from last 1 week , which has already given me 60/80 points of profit. When up move started from 5000, the target was 5150/5200 and I created short put positions in advance knowing very well that I might need them as protection later. I am also holding 5400 calls as my monthly donation to market.

I do take risk mgmt on top of everything and cut my positions size to reduce the risk.

So please take your own decision.

Reqest to linkon - Plz edit your post and change/delete the bold part where u compared my options trading with someone.. I am nobody in front of HIM. so not comfortable in seeing my name there. I know how insignificant I am.

Happy Trading

 

[SwingKing]

XXX

Edited

 

[rajputz]

As a Trader/Investor I have always given more importance to my mindset and my psychology. I have always believed that my trading comprises of 90% of my psychological make up and my composure and 10% of rest of the factors. Naturally, I have performed the best when I have maintained my composure as a trader.

Ever since I have read Linkon's post, I have not been able to be at peace. I have had an awful night's sleep yesterday and also a trading day which was full of guilt. I just could not digest the fact that my opinion could cause someone to loose money and that I could not see this coming. I don't blame linkon for writing what he wrote, infact I want to thank him for writing what he did.

I have struggled a lot in my trading career and where ever I have reached today, I have shed lot of tears and sweat to get here. Least thing I want is to see my trading getting affected by anything but guilt. Even as of now, I have spent more time thinking about this rather than thinking about my trades tomorrow. I have taken a conscious decision of not posting my views anymore as it is affecting me as a trader. I might start sometime again in future, if I feel psychologically I would be able to handle it. The last thing I ever want is for someone to take a loss based on my opinion or my analysis.

This decision might seem emotional, but the way I see it, it is more 'Practical'.

P.S. - Thanks Linkon for bringing this up. I don't want to name a user here, but I want to say that my decision of not posting anything in this thread has nothing to do with what this user has written to me on email. So please don't take it personally. Not to forget, special thanks to AW10 for his valuable contribution in this thread.

Tc

There is nothing to feel guilt of Raunak Sir. You just posted what you saw, and taking blind decision on that is not your fault. While any body is taking decision based on your analysis, if he/she is neglecting the other factors discussed by aw sir, linkon sir like timeframe, moneymanagement, phsychology, stoploss, then it is not your fault. You already mentioned in the thread about your time frame ranging from 1 month to 3 month. And people with this kind of trading time frame are not stopped out cause of the intraday fluctuation. Still upon that view, if some one is loosing in intraday or in 7-10 days time frame, then he needs to check with himself. Is his system, permitting him to enter or not?

I have been subscribed to many threads in the forum, but this is the one thread that i read with utmost care. Cause it counters my view, and makes me think if i am taking a right decision, or neglecting some point. It just sounds as an alarming bell, that i am bullish, but still some are bearish, then what is the reason. What should i do in the circumstances? I become more cautious. This is the thread that brought me the view of markets bigger picture. This is the thread that taught me the precise entry method, which i was neglecting, and for which i am working on new afl.

I have always worked practically on one theory in life. WE ARE OURSELF RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR DECISIONS AND NOBODY ELSE. And it proves right till date. If i am making loss in market, then it is cause i hit the wrong order at wrong time at wrong market condition against my style, and not taking in account my own views.

P.S.: - Please dont stop, this thread as this is the best piece of work. Ever since i have read this thread, i have never picked up newspaper again. A Master piece of information.

 

[enigmaticme]

thats sad indeed.. but i guess u dnt need to feel guilty about it.. ur posts were really informative.. some guys might have taken it wrongly n would even hav lost some pennies but the message that u tried to convey.. if taken in the right spirit of learning.. will definitely save many from complete ruin someday..

Neways..
i wish u peace of mind.. n hope to see u back here again..
Thanks a lot..

 

[simple_trader]

raunak ji, you are one among a few here, who are sharing good knowledge and views. Please keep doing that. As I stated in my previous post, I personally do not like spoon feeding or sharing trades etc. Anyway even if we share, that's not going help others as real time decisions can not be shared always. One has to do his own analysis for trading.

 

[linkon7]

As a Trader/Investor I have always given more importance to my mindset and my psychology. I have always believed that my trading comprises of 90% of my psychological make up and my composure and 10% of rest of the factors. Naturally, I have performed the best when I have maintained my composure as a trader.

Ever since I have read Linkon's post, I have not been able to be at peace. I have had an awful night's sleep yesterday and also a trading day which was full of guilt. I just could not digest the fact that my opinion could cause someone to loose money and that I could not see this coming. I don't blame linkon for writing what he wrote, infact I want to thank him for writing what he did.

I have struggled a lot in my trading career and where ever I have reached today, I have shed lot of tears and sweat to get here. Least thing I want is to see my trading getting affected by anything but guilt. Even as of now, I have spent more time thinking about this rather than thinking about my trades tomorrow. I have taken a conscious decision of not posting my views anymore as it is affecting me as a trader. I might start sometime again in future, if I feel psychologically I would be able to handle it. The last thing I ever want is for someone to take a loss based on my opinion or my analysis.

This decision might seem emotional, but the way I see it, it is more 'Practical'.

P.S. - Thanks Linkon for bringing this up. I don't want to name a user here, but I want to say that my decision of not posting anything in this thread has nothing to do with what this user has written to me on email. So please don't take it personally. Not to forget, special thanks to AW10 and all other users for their valuable contribution in this thread.

Tc

If 10 people were instructed to tell me that my left hand is shorter than my right hand, then i would seriously doubt my own judgment and consult a doctor even. That's my learning curve's most important milestone, when i learn to rely on my own judgment and not get swayed by opinions.

Most of the experts who air their view on TV channels are responsible for many losses in everyone's early phase of their trading career... I remember CNBC made a program where they asked their experts to play a intraday game where they have to pick stocks and define the entry point / exit point and money management before hand and almost all of them did a splendid job. Here lies the difference...

That program stopped me from treating them as jokers. They all had valid reasons for suggesting a particular direction and when given a chance, they did prove how good they were.

Please don't feel guilty for airing your opinion. Its part of everyone's learning curve, where they can become self reliant with passage of time...

I personally visit this thread just to get the view of the bears and their thought process.... that helps me a lot in making my own judgment...

 

[laxsri]

Thanks for pointing me to this thread but I could not find the settings for RSI, Stochastic and MACD.
Can you please let me know.

 

[nimish_rulz]

As a Trader/Investor I have always given more importance to my mindset and my psychology. I have always believed that my trading comprises of 90% of my psychological make up and my composure and 10% of rest of the factors. Naturally, I have performed the best when I have maintained my composure as a trader.

Ever since I have read Linkon's post, I have not been able to be at peace. I have had an awful night's sleep yesterday and also a trading day which was full of guilt. I just could not digest the fact that my opinion could cause someone to loose money and that I could not see this coming. I don't blame linkon for writing what he wrote, infact I want to thank him for writing what he did.

I have struggled a lot in my trading career and where ever I have reached today, I have shed lot of tears and sweat to get here. Least thing I want is to see my trading getting affected by anything but guilt. Even as of now, I have spent more time thinking about this rather than thinking about my trades tomorrow. I have taken a conscious decision of not posting my views anymore as it is affecting me as a trader. I might start sometime again in future, if I feel psychologically I would be able to handle it. The last thing I ever want is for someone to take a loss based on my opinion or my analysis.

This decision might seem emotional, but the way I see it, it is more 'Practical'.

P.S. - Thanks Linkon for bringing this up. I don't want to name a user here, but I want to say that my decision of not posting anything in this thread has nothing to do with what this user has written to me on email. So please don't take it personally. Not to forget, special thanks to AW10 and all other users for their valuable contribution in this thread.

Tc

Raunak Bhai. Whether you continue posting or not it is totally up to you. However, I think the calls you gave were amazing even if some had followed you I doubt they made a loss. You shorted nifty at 5370. Target was 4800 that was achieved. You said I am in no trade zone when Nifty went there. You initiated shorts again when nifty hit 5150 and went down. So far loss has been 70 points according to me or maximum 100.

Even in January you gave a sell call @ 5300 right at market peak. I guess traders here have benefited here with your view rather than lost it.

I have been a strong admirer of your daily analysis and you have done a commendable job.

I think it would be great if you still stick around traderji and express your views. However, if you feel you don't want to misguide anyone I would recommend you stop giving specific levels and give a broader picture.

I have been learning a lot from you and AW10 reading your post. I am very new to the market with mainly bookish knowledge however this real world is much more challenging than what I found academically.

What you guys talk gives a perspective and helps me overcome my shortcomings. I am getting better with my analysis thanks to you. So I would still hope you post here even if it is a broader consensus. It does help in spotting the shortcomings.

But still if you decide not to post any more I respect your decision but love to see your guidance in other threads where you have been active. Many thanks.

Good Luck and Happy trading. I wish you all the very best!

 

[yoza]

Please don't feel guilty for airing your opinion, keep going with your valuable contribution, this is my favourite thread. I have been learning a lot from you.