Nifty: Daily Price Analysis

[vijayakishorebabu]

Dear raunakji,

I would like to tell something after seeing the response of yours for linkons messsage. Recently i am also a follower of this thread and mainly visiting to this thread for your posts and AW10 posts. Generally i cover my shorts immediately when i have doubt but after following the thread I covered my shorts one day delay( loss 18000 )even my system tells me to cover. Because i felt most senior and experienced traders are still in short why i should not continue my short position after followup the messages in this thread. Like me so many may take delay decissions from short coverings. Like that experienced traders minds also influenced. I think the same thing linkon has pointed out. So, dont think you are responsible for losses of the thread followers. Every trader is responsible for his own trading decissions/actions. So please dont get emotional.

Further nobody is questioning the wisdom of yours and trading experience.Out of 10 views one view may goes wrong nothing wrong in it. Please dont take emotional decissions. I respect your decission not to participate but personally i request continue to share your views. That is benefit to so many traders in the long run.

 

[scplindia]

Raunakji,

A lot has been said overnight to your response. I have learnt a lot from you, this thread has been very informative, and posts lots and lots of financial news, which most of us may not have access to.

Loss or profit is a traders own decision, you need not feel guilty about it.

Please continue your posts

Some of your recommendations have given considerable profit, nobody is going to share the profit with you, so is the case with loss. Please donot be emotional.

Keep up the nice post and help all of us learn from your experience.

Thanks for your nice posts,
Prem Kumar

 

[crown]

I have shorted nifty at 5242 on 15th June... Market might go either way...I will wait if it go up since it can go max at 5400 & ultimately it will come down to 5000 level before the result season start....

mene bhi ye he kiya hai
:lol:

 

[AW10]

As a Trader/Investor I have always given more importance to my mindset and my psychology. I have always believed that my trading comprises of 90% of my psychological make up and my composure and 10% of rest of the factors. Naturally, I have performed the best when I have maintained my composure as a trader.

Ever since I have read Linkon's post, I have not been able to be at peace. I have had an awful night's sleep yesterday and also a trading day which was full of guilt. I just could not digest the fact that my opinion could cause someone to loose money and that I could not see this coming. I don't blame linkon for writing what he wrote, infact I want to thank him for writing what he did.

I have struggled a lot in my trading career and where ever I have reached today, I have shed lot of tears and sweat to get here. Least thing I want is to see my trading getting affected by anything but guilt. Even as of now, I have spent more time thinking about this rather than thinking about my trades tomorrow. I have taken a conscious decision of not posting my views anymore as it is affecting me as a trader. I might start sometime again in future, if I feel psychologically I would be able to handle it. The last thing I ever want is for someone to take a loss based on my opinion or my analysis.

This decision might seem emotional, but the way I see it, it is more 'Practical'.

P.S. - Thanks Linkon for bringing this up. I don't want to name a user here, but I want to say that my decision of not posting anything in this thread has nothing to do with what this user has written to me on email. So please don't take it personally. Not to forget, special thanks to AW10 and all other users for their valuable contribution in this thread.

Tc

Raunak, I am disturbed and really feel sorry to read your post. Let me express my thought on the same topic.

Most of the time, our action are based on the belief that we carry. And we rarely validate our belief and test to see whether they are correct or not.
One such belief is My view on market has resulted in loss for someone else. Yes, there might be some truth in this. But most likely, if it is not my view, the same person might have still followed someone elses view on TJ , on CNBC, or any friend. And result would have still been the same i.e. holding on to the loss or being in loss. But the root of problem for trader is Not taking the responsibility of their trading, not doing their due diligence, and not doing the right TRADING (no stops, no action plan for various scenario etc).

Then Am I responsible for his non-action, anti-TRADING actions? If they have to listen to me, then they should listen completely.. not selectively.
If person is ignorant, then yes I can help them and guide them. I can show them the right path. But if they still dont listen to me but just take my sharing as the TIP.. then who is at the fault ?

I cann't take responsibility of something, that is beyond my control zone. I can only control or modify my action, and may be take extra action (if possible) to remind others of their responsiblity.

Personally, I have also gone thru the same thought process, but later found that my belief and action were not in synch. I can compensate the guilt by taking action which will reduce the chances of such events.. i.e. start sharing knowledge, help people if they really want, put disclaimer, change tone of my messages in future, give discount for losses if I am getting paid for giving tips etc . That still doesnt reduce the probability of event to zero, there might be some cases which I will deal when they come. Ofcourse, another alternative is to STOP doing what I was doing.

If I am stopping it, then I will evaluate against the very purpose for which I was taking the action. How badly or how casually I want/wanted to follow that purpose. Then take the decision.

Raunak - Hope your decision was not emotional. As a trader, I am sure you know how to be objective in decision making. Quite possible, you have already gone thru what I have written above. Whatever is your decision to continue posting the view on this thread or stop it, I respect it completely.

I will certainly be missing this thread. Though most of the time we are sharing the views but enjoyed the bullish view that came here and challanged my own stance in healthy way. That only made me go back to check if my views are still correct or not.

All the best and happy trading.

 

[aryan.]

Raunak bhai please dont stop posting.

It helps newbies like me who are learning technical analysis. EOD I analyze the nifty movement in metastock, type my conclusion in notepad and then I open this thread to see if it matches your conclusion. Sometimes it does sometimes it does not, if it does not match , I then try to figure out what other data/pattern etc am I missing.

If people blindly follow your posts becoz they are lazy and lose money its not your fault.

Please continue posting.

I have been saying that for sometime, nothing to do with 5200

Go with the market flow and make money, let market go anywhere.

All are biased towards down side, I guess. So it seems 4500 looks nearer than 5500 (though mathematically it is not).
Just to add a few more things, still 5200 call June has highest OI. Need to give some respect till is loses OI. Some trend lines are merging at 5230 spot around.

I have no bias, I let the market tell me what to do. What I didnt understand from your post is that how can you see the future and say confidently that nifty will touch 5500.

 

[simple_trader]

I have no bias, I let the market tell me what to do. What I didnt understand from your post is that how can you see the future and say confidently that nifty will touch 5500.

I clarified this earlier. If you follow chart, then you can easily find why 5500. NIFTY is following a trading channel in EOD chart. higher end comes at 5500 around.

Also, please mind reading my language carefully. All I have said, if 5500 comes, I would love to play for down side (positionally). Other wise shorting and longing will be done in the move.

Though you have mentioned that you have no bias. But your language does not say the same. Other wise, 5500 would not have caught your eyes. We can see future by reading chart and from past exp! It does not mean that our reading will be right always. There is nothing like less-confidently or more confidently. I shared my reading. Market can prove it wrong as well. You can also share your views!

I am attaching the chart below. market will do less or more than what I have showed in the chart. Also it is one of the possibilities.

Hope this helps!

 

[SwingKing]

Raunak, I am disturbed and really feel sorry to read your post. Let me express my thought on the same topic.

Most of the time, our action are based on the belief that we carry. And we rarely validate our belief and test to see whether they are correct or not.
One such belief is My view on market has resulted in loss for someone else. Yes, there might be some truth in this. But most likely, if it is not my view, the same person might have still followed someone elses view on TJ , on CNBC, or any friend. And result would have still been the same i.e. holding on to the loss or being in loss. But the root of problem for trader is Not taking the responsibility of their trading, not doing their due diligence, and not doing the right TRADING (no stops, no action plan for various scenario etc).

Then Am I responsible for his non-action, anti-TRADING actions? If they have to listen to me, then they should listen completely.. not selectively.
If person is ignorant, then yes I can help them and guide them. I can show them the right path. But if they still dont listen to me but just take my sharing as the TIP.. then who is at the fault ?

I cann't take responsibility of something, that is beyond my control zone. I can only control or modify my action, and may be take extra action (if possible) to remind others of their responsiblity.

Personally, I have also gone thru the same thought process, but later found that my belief and action were not in synch. I can compensate the guilt by taking action which will reduce the chances of such events.. i.e. start sharing knowledge, help people if they really want, put disclaimer, change tone of my messages in future, give discount for losses if I am getting paid for giving tips etc . That still doesnt reduce the probability of event to zero, there might be some cases which I will deal when they come. Ofcourse, another alternative is to STOP doing what I was doing.

If I am stopping it, then I will evaluate against the very purpose for which I was taking the action. How badly or how casually I want/wanted to follow that purpose. Then take the decision.

Raunak - Hope your decision was not emotional. As a trader, I am sure you know how to be objective in decision making. Quite possible, you have already gone thru what I have written above. Whatever is your decision to continue posting the view on this thread or stop it, I respect it completely.

I will certainly be missing this thread. Though most of the time we are sharing the views but enjoyed the bullish view that came here and challanged my own stance in healthy way. That only made me go back to check if my views are still correct or not.

All the best and happy trading.

Thanks AW10 and other esteemed users.

My whole purpose of not posting is not to do with anyone's loss. I understand what you guys have written and take your views in highest regards. My point was that such feelings prevent 'me' from concentrating fully. Probably I am at fault and I need to change my thought process. I am going to venture into Portfolio Management in few years, hence I feel I have to change the way I think.

I am going for a nice 10 day vacation to Canada today. Probably, I will return with a better thought process and continue 'our' thread.

Tc

 

[scplindia]

Happy & Safe Journey

 

[crown]

I clarified this earlier. If you follow chart, then you can easily find why 5500. NIFTY is following a trading channel in EOD chart. higher end comes at 5500 around.

Also, please mind reading my language carefully. All I have said, if 5500 comes, I would love to play for down side (positionally). Other wise shorting and longing will be done in the move.

Though you have mentioned that you have no bias. But your language does not say the same. Other wise, 5500 would not have caught your eyes. We can see future by reading chart and from past exp! It does not mean that our reading will be right always. There is nothing like less-confidently or more confidently. I shared my reading. Market can prove it wrong as well. You can also share your views!

I am attaching the chart below. market will do less or more than what I have showed in the chart. Also it is one of the possibilities.

Hope this helps!

simple trader bhai
aapka chart dekh kar to muje bhi dar lag raha hai ki kahi 5500 kee taiyari to nahi kar raha nifty.
if we count candles, i think it may take one month or so
bhagwaan bas ek baar nifty ko 100 point minus kar de, phir chahe jahan le jaana

 

[rajeabc]

simple trader bhai
aapka chart dekh kar to muje bhi dar lag raha hai ki kahi 5500 kee taiyari to nahi kar raha nifty.
if we count candles, i think it may take one month or so
bhagwaan bas ek baar nifty ko 100 point minus kar de, phir chahe jahan le jaana

I think it will have a dip around 5300 . I have no position open ,please do your own due diligence .