Nifty Entry ,Exit ,Target levels with Median Line Charts

[Kavima]

hi SG / friends

Looks like you guys had a lot of fun!!

SG, that was a good puzzle. And linking it with the thread!!Though I didnt guess it ,but understood the link with the folded paper and the pitchfork and parallel warning lines....:lol:
I did drop in earlier and put it across to the kids in the family and we had fun ..Thank u....

 

[Kavima]

Still I'm biased towards Short Side

today's 5 min chart
Price has been resisted in UMLH of PF..

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[vinzz]

kavima,
pls post what does the 30min & hourly chart say


thanks

 

[Kavima]

17.01.2012

60 MIN CHART

On Monday price was still at a critical area where bulls and bears were fighting it out .The close was positive and it emerged that the bulls had an upper hand when the price was pushed from the early morning lows to close at the day's high zone.Still the outcome could have been either way and the bulls won today with the breakout above the resistance area.What a breakout rally!
The morning's breakout and WRB hour bar set the rally rolling and it looks poised to move towards a target of 5000 zone at the green UMLH.We have a strong support zone at 4925 area for any retracements which may be triggered due to any negative global cues / or profit booking.
The uptrend holds till it moves within the upsloping major orange PF.

 

[LivetoTrade]

Kavima, in your above chart, price has broken the lower green PF, taken support at the lower main PF, and continued back into the green PF.

Is this normal ?

Does PF study have any explanation or reasoning for breaking the PF and continuation back into it ?

 

[Kavima]

Hi LTT

The median line channels frame the price movement,from which the analysis is to estimate the price moves.as the channel depends on the points from which we draw the median line which are the important swing pivots in different time frames ie we have larger swings and smaller swings within the current trend.the orange pf was based on the major turning points.the smaller pf based on smaller swings.it is like the supports on larger time frame holding when supports in smaller tf get violated.in this case orange pf LMLH supported the price where price reversed.but as the price was moving in a sideways manner,there was a possibility of price failure of the LMLH also which only after the price move was completed we are able to confirm the support.just refer my earlier post no 133 where a similar sideways triangular move happened and we rallied up.The area at the LMLH was a zone where both possibilities of breakout and breakdown have to be considered as it was a junction after a big rally.

 

[Kavima]

Intraday 5 min chart

Probable moves today.Breakout or breakdown??Just have to wait and watch

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[Kavima]

18.01.2012 Wednesday

5 min Intraday chart posted earlier

5 min EOD chart

60 min chart

 

[Kavima]

19.01.2012 Thursday

Price is not relenting in its race to reach greater tops.Defying the expectation of many that the top has been reached at 4900 zone , it did not wait to rush upwards.
I've marked the series of swing highs and lows and the pattern is clear with higher highs and higher lows.No signs of slowing.Today was a gap day and consolidation and close at high area.Positive view is that nifty looks to be set to reach the orange median line at approx 5100 zone if it moves with the same momentum without a sideway's range. And if so , andrew's rule will be proved once again.( Andrew's rule states that price will meet the Median line 80% of the time)
Downside, Retracements to fill the gap and at support exists at 4930 level is a possibility due to profit booking.The clue to a reversal in trend can only be when price closes below 4930.Till then with price within the lower channel of the orange pitchfork , the uptrend is in force.


The gap up on 17th and 19th would not have allowed many to climb onto the rally ,as looking around ,majority opinion was a fall from 4900 zone ( including me , closed all positions at that level .Due to constraint in access of system could not enter on breakout day above 4900 :annoyed

Long term positional traders would have gained if they had sat tight.

Current market moves do not give a good location to enter positional trades on both sides now.Long trades RR ratio is not good and for shorts the bearish patterns / a fall below swing lows are yet to happen.So waiting at the sidelines for a suitable entry.Till then Bulls are the winners.....

 

[Kavima]

20.01.2012 Friday

60 min chart

Gap up and sideways range during intraday.Last hour Nifty was teasing a lot by the wide range bars making some early intraday shorters bite the dust...Nifty is playing a fantastic game making everybody guess the top and then rushing above them...:lol: