NIFTY FIFTY

[AMITBE]

So far 3502 has arrested the sudden fall.
It's important to stay above 3518-3526, and climbing above 3531 should bring back stablity and strength.
The three levels are important to hold.

Stablity did return once 3531 was held.
In fact above 3529, the downwards volatility ceased.

Returning of strength here means how the day closes, reflecting on the trend in the immediate term.
When certain crucial daily levels, which also concur with longer ranging levels, are taken or given up in the course of a session, there is usually a direct relationship on how the next one would pan out at opening, making a discount for external influences.
2527 amongst others was given as a major level by me yesterday, the reason 2526 was mentioned in the quote above as a level to stay above.
The next step-up level given yesterday is 3544, and the Nifty was unlikely to clear that tonight.

All these levels are in the post here: http://www.traderji.com/40952-post1077.html

The sharp selloff came out of nowhere, and a warning to this was made in the morning post.

Another interesting chart to see the falling and rising trendlines.
Note the closing value of 3535.85 falls right on the rising support trendline.

 

[AMITBE]

Yesterdays late day dramatics seemed more in line with the cautious approach pointed out here Tuesday morning:

The other related factor is that our markets are attempting a recovery from the major scare of last week, where the market movers may likely play one day at a time and book profits at every rise, at this point.

This kind of edginess is quite a natural manifestation of the stretched valuations, regardless of some strong numbers which have come out so far from the quarterlies.
Crude prices is the other major concern internationally and markets everywhere are showing volatility.

If there is more juice left in our markets, then on the fundamental front crude prices is one main barrier.

On the technical front, from my study, the major level to command is 3579 before any residual mileage can be extracted to the up.
Ifs and buts are the necessary irony of life.

If 3579 can be held, the extension has the potential to test 3588-3597-3606-3615-3624-3633.
This is thinking at least two steps further ahead, of course.

For now the cautious approach is the likely scenario.
Volatility should rise at the highs and lows.

The support line as of now is lighter at 3534-3531-3528-3525/22.
It appears denser at 3519-3514-3510-3506-3502-3499-3494-3490.
An important level to hold is 3486.

To the up the easier line seems 3539-3542-3545-3548-3551.
Beyond this there appears a longish congested line at 3555-3559-3563-3567-3571-3575-3579-3583.
After yesterdays sell off, the higher reaches are mainly for the record!

While the levels given each morning are broadly good for the day, at times a revision is made necessary by surprises!

 

[AMITBE]

The support line as of now is lighter at 3534-3531-3528-3525/22.
It appears denser at 3519-3514-3510-3506-3502-3499-3494-3490.
An important level to hold is 3486.

To the up the easier line seems 3539-3542-3545-3548-3551.
Beyond this there appears a longish congested line at 3555-3559-3563-3567-3571-3575-3579-3583.
After yesterdays sell off, the higher reaches are mainly for the record!

While the levels given each morning are broadly good for the day, at times a revision is made necessary by surprises!

For some review, if this time 3551 is tested and taken out, then the step-up levels for the Nifty are:
3554-3557-3560-3563-3566-3569-3572-3575.

At 3550 now.

 

[AMITBE]

For some review, if this time 3551 is tested and taken out, then the step-up levels for the Nifty are:
3554-3557-3560-3563-3566-3569-3572-3575.

At 3550 now.

As written this morning, there was going to be congestion above 3551, starting with the line at 3555 etc. See morning post.

See the attached chart and the levels marked in red.

Of interest is the trendline, where the struggle to keep above 3555-3557-3560 can be seen very close along the trendline.
Then breaking below the trendline, the contest between 3555-3557 is quite vivid.
These are marked with arrows.

Partly the reason for these charts is just sharing some fascinating 'episodes' from the 'day in life of Nifty' kind of thing.
Partly the reason is to share how trendlines can be used.

 

[feels_good_today]

some fascinating 'episodes' from the 'day in life of Nifty' kind of thing.



could have been a perfect name for this thread.

Amitji, really the facinating thing excluding the moves of nifty is how as simple thing as trendlines could be used in such an efficient manner. Most of the starters in TA underestimate trendlines. This forum is turning into a university for newcomers.

Thanks

 

[AMITBE]

The big wheel keeps on turning, and the famous song Money makes the world go round is as timeless a truth as youll ever hear.

Please pardon my small gurgle of delight in reproducing the last stanza of that song from the film Cabaret here.
Were just having some fun, or perhaps celebrating the Sensex at 12000:

For money makes the world go around, the world go around,
the world go around.
Money makes the world go around,
the clinking, clanking sound
of Money, money, money, money,
Money, money, money, money,
Get a little, get a little,
Money, money, money, money,
Mark, a yen, a buck or a pound,
That clinking, clanking clunking sound
is all that makes the world go round,
It makes the world go round.
For money makes the world go round.


Yes, its the high power of money thats turning the markets wheel, isnt it.
Yeahso whats new.
Less said the better of all that.

On to more serious stuff.

On the technical front, from my study, the major level to command is 3579 before any residual mileage can be extracted to the up.
Ifs and buts are the necessary irony of life.

If 3579 can be held, the extension has the potential to test 3588-3597-3606-3615-3624-3633.
This is thinking at least two steps further ahead, of course.

The above is from yesterdays morning post.
Well, the two steps further ahead got fast forwarded by one step in merely one session.

Closing above 3579 would have been the perfect picture, but hey, were not moaning nor whining all for that.
The Nifty all but made a strong swipe at it, and the high at 3578.35 is akin to grabbing a handful of that magic number by the coattails!

But caution. The numbers listed above are potential step-ups, and how far up the ladder the Nifty climbs would be a matter of interest to me.
Caution too, as the new high grounds may well demand some blood before yielding.
Keep the stops close at hand.
We know how the wheel reverses direction.

The congestion above 3555 was not easily overcome, as those readers who closely follow the Nifty will have noted yesterday.
Its not the numbers congestion that going to be the issue going ahead.
Its going to be vertigo, the fear of heights, more likely.

On to the levels:

Daily congestion to the up is seen from 3575 all the way to 3607.
The line is 3575-3579-3583-3587-3591-3595-3599-3603-3607.
How far the likely gap-up will wade into this line is to be seen. Will update if need be.

Supports are at 3568-3564-3560-3556/54.
Then at 3551-3548-3545-3542-3539-3536-3533-3530.
Will update if need be.

 

[AMITBE]

On to the levels:

Daily congestion to the up is seen from 3575 all the way to 3607.
The line is 3575-3579-3583-3587-3591-3595-3599-3603-3607.
How far the likely gap-up will wade into this line is to be seen. Will update if need be.

Supports are at 3568-3564-3560-3556/54.
Then at 3551-3548-3545-3542-3539-3536-3533-3530.
Will update if need be.

At this point 3521/22 are crucial levels, and then 3517.
Below 3513 the fall may have less support.

To the up, 3543 is important to take and hold.

 

[AMITBE]

In recent times there have been two sessions where the intraday action followed similar patterns.
April 13 was one, and Friday last was another. (The link to April intraday chart: http://www.traderji.com/40544-post1062.html )
On both days the low coming off the high had the market in a tizzy, the fall was so sharp. Then by close the pullback was spectacular.

The Friday bar is quite interesting and ambiguous, throwing up interesting possibilities.
A Doji bar for sure, a long legged Doji quite visibly, with a long lower shadow.
Conventionally it is a sign of strength, and indecision both, depending on where one wants to pitch the interpretation.
The strength is seen from the pullback after the deep low, to close at the previous close.
Indecision is seen by the flat finish, though it was anything but flat as a session.
It can be seen as a sign of an impending pullback too.
This is common knowledge to those familiar with candlestick charting.

For me personally, it was the reaction at above the 3579 mark which is the important aspect of Fridays session.
As written previously, this is the one which is seen as the magic mark to hold if further gains are to be made.
Whether this can be done today itself or not is another matter. Global cues, including crude prices are quite negative.
However, it should come in a fit of sudden buying sometime soon.
If so, the step up levels were written here: http://www.traderji.com/41200-post1092.html

Expect much volatility for obvious reasons, including the fact this is the derivatives expiry week.

Levels for today:
Support line is 3569-3563-3560-3557-3554-3551-3548-3545.
Then 3541-3537-3533-3529-3525-3521.
3513 is vital to hold.

To the up the magic number to take and hold is 3597 and nothing else will do.
The line there is 3577-3581-3585-3589-3593-3597.
More later if need be.

 

[AMITBE]

Levels for today:
Support line is 3569-3563-3560-3557-3554-3551-3548-3545.
Then 3541-3537-3533-3529-3525-3521.
3513 is vital to hold.

To the up the magic number to take and hold is 3597 and nothing else will do.
The line there is 3577-3581-3585-3589-3593-3597.
More later if need be.

To the up 3585 has been the peak, and to the down the slip was a tad below 3537.

For now, holding above 3560 would keep things free of congestion immediately below this level. If then 3572 is tested and taken, the move can retest 3585.
Closing anything above this would be a show of strength.

Down below, 3552 is an important level to hold before close.

At 3560 now.

 

[AMITBE]

For all the irony with which Sensex at 12000 was celebrated the other day, with the famous song Money makes the world go round, come to think of it now, Im glad for the domestic Funds brimming with the moollah.
If not for their support over the past several days, our market may well have joined the wider trend, and gotten its teeth knocked out.
Yeah sure, no pain no gain may fit the bigger philosophical treatise, but were not in the business of pain and penance, specially when India Inc. is issuing largely a great set of numbers.

Two interesting interrelated aspects were seen in yesterdays session.
One is the relative flatness in terms of volatility, and the failure to pullback substantially from the days low.
Substantial pullbacks have been the trend in recent times. The failure to do so suggests a broad based selling in index stocks of course.
The related issue is that the wider market held out nicely, meaning the mid and small caps.
Perhaps this is natural with plenty of good numbers coming out of this space.
It seems like a good strategy the market movers are playing, thanks to the negative global cues, of pruning down the Nifty and holding crucial levels (for a later charge quite likely), but keeping the market from being unduly spooked.
This is an interesting ploy not seen lately, especially just ahead of the derivative expiry.
The next couple of sessions should be great to watch.

Its difficult to say which way the market would play today, but the trend seems firmly in favour of further rise.

The levels for now:
Supports are 3546-3543-3540-3537-3533-3529-3525. 3521 is crucial.
Then 3517-3513-3509. 3505 is critical to protect 3493. This is one of the major numbers as some readers may recall.

To the up 3553-3556-3558-3561.
Then 3566-3569-3573-3576-3579-3584.

More later if need be.