NIFTY FIFTY

[AMITBE]

Only numbers are important now, so on to that.
Again, there is no point in discussing these in an involved manner so Im going to keep it brief.

From long ranging data 3476 holds the magic for now, and its crucial for the Nifty to climb above this mark and hold it tonight.
Further below, a loss of 3459 at close today may likely dampen the spirits substantially.
A close above 3493, and the markets should be able to stage a comeback.
Thats it.

The levels:
Supports are 3458-3453-3448-3443-3438-3433.
The next line is 3430-3427-3424-3421-3418-3415-3412-3409.
Further below is 3405-3402-3399-3396-3393-3387-3385.
3378-3371 are crucial to hold.

To the up, 3466-3469-3472-3476-3479-3481.
Above this is congestion, and should the Nifty wade into the line as far as possible, it would show increasing strength.
The line is 3485-3489-3493-3497-3501-3505-3509-3513.

 

[AMITBE]

Only numbers are important now, so on to that.
Again, there is no point in discussing these in an involved manner so Im going to keep it brief.

From long ranging data 3476 holds the magic for now, and its crucial for the Nifty to climb above this mark and hold it tonight.
Further below, a loss of 3459 at close today may likely dampen the spirits substantially.
A close above 3493, and the markets should be able to stage a comeback.
Thats it.

The levels:
Supports are 3458-3453-3448-3443-3438-3433.
The next line is 3430-3427-3424-3421-3418-3415-3412-3409.
Further below is 3405-3402-3399-3396-3393-3387-3385.
3378-3371 are crucial to hold.

To the up, 3466-3469-3472-3476-3479-3481.
Above this is congestion, and should the Nifty wade into the line as far as possible, it would show increasing strength.
The line is 3485-3489-3493-3497-3501-3505-3509-3513.

To review and adjust some numbers, 3502 and 3499 are the important marks to hold above, where though there is density above, the Nifty maintains strength.
Step up levels would be 3506-3510-3514-3518-3522 at this point.

Stops are all the numbers listed above as conflict levels to the up in the morning post.

 

[AMITBE]

To review and adjust some numbers, 3502 and 3499 are the important marks to hold above, where though there is density above, the Nifty maintains strength.
Step up levels would be 3506-3510-3514-3518-3522 at this point.

Stops are all the numbers listed above as conflict levels to the up in the morning post.

These are steller moves, and so may as well get all the step up levels above 3522:
3526-3530-3534.
Above all this, if at all, we should just let it run, eh.
Ah...but watch for volatility.

 

[rasasen]

Dear Mr. Amit,

FII's have once again proved they have superiror control over our market.
yes. They rolled over the nifty future at lower levels yesterday. And sitting pretty strong.

Tomorrow, they will pull the nifty still up and we may see a new high on nifty .

On Friday, the mutual funds will find it tough to keep their NAV's alive.

with high repect and regards,
rasaen

 

[AMITBE]

I dont see any virtue in commenting on the crazed moves of the markets.

FIIs this and Domestic Funds that.
NSE this and SEBI that.
Shorts covering this and buying that.
Bulls this and Bears that.

That just about sums up what its all about.

Ive been looking at some recent posts to go over some numbers posted here in recent times.
The following was addressed to gvnarendra on April 18, where the previous night the Nifty had closed at 3425:

I'm looking more keenly to see if the Nifty will retrace its step-up major levels which it had recently lost. There were certain important gaps there, left behind in the previous rally, which are being covered now.
Frm yesterday's close at 3425, the step-up levels are 3442-3459-3476-3493-3510-3527-3544-3561.
3544 was tested recently while 3561 and beyond are unchartered yet.
Thanks and regards.

Over the next few days, the Nifty did retrace the climb covering the gaps, and peaked at 3573 close for a couple of sessions on April 20 and 21.
Then came the fall, again retracing journey, and bottomed out at 3433 intraday low a couple of days ago.
Yesterdays turnaround yet again retraced, by now the much-trampled path.

Back again to a previous post, the following is from April 20:

On the technical front, from my study, the major level to command is 3579 before any residual mileage can be extracted to the up.
Ifs and buts are the necessary irony of life.

If 3579 can be held, the extension has the potential to test 3588-3597-3606-3615-3624-3633.
This is thinking at least two steps further ahead, of course.

Wellif enough is enough is really out-of-the-way, after two steps forwards and three backwards, the Nifty is yet again poised to test the step-ups.
The market is welcome to feverishly do what it wants to do, which it does.
For me this is the primary interest of study at this point.

Ahone more interesting aside.
Day before yesterday Saint had written this in response to my query on the days low after the session:

Hi Amit,

Low of 3433.55,was a dip between 3:15 to 3:20pm before closing that 5min bar at 3453.

Saint

That was a strong Hammer bar that shielded the strongly falling market that day.
Yesterdays low at 3454 never could take that bar out.
Hammers are kind of cool, arent they!

For the daily levels:

To the up the line is 3557-3564-3569-3574-3577-3580-3583-3586-3589-3592-3598-3604-3610.
More later if need be.

Supports are 3551-3547-3541-3536-3530-3527.
Running out of time and will post again if need be.

 

[AMITBE]

For the daily levels:

To the up the line is 3557-3564-3569-3574-3577-3580-3583-3586-3589-3592-3598-3604-3610.
More later if need be.

Supports are 3551-3547-3541-3536-3530-3527.
Running out of time and will post again if need be.

Was out of time this morning, so updating now from then.

Congestion is seen above 3598.
The line goes all the way to 3631.

For the record, the levels to there are 3604-3610-3615-3619-3623-3627-3631.

 

[Saint]

FIIs this and Domestic Funds that.
NSE this and SEBI that.
Shorts covering this and buying that.
Bulls this and Bears that.

That just about sums up what its all about.

.......nobody could have put it any better than you,my friend!!

Saint

 

[AMITBE]

For the daily levels:

To the up the line is 3557-3564-3569-3574-3577-3580-3583-3586-3589-3592-3598-3604-3610.
More later if need be.

Supports are 3551-3547-3541-3536-3530-3527.
Running out of time and will post again if need be.

Well...the typical contracts expiry gyrations have begun after a sedate session so far.

Should the down pressure take out 3527 mentioned above, 3525-3521 are important to protect 3519. Below that supports there are but not too reliable.
They are 3514-3509-3504-3499.

To the up, 3545 and 3553 are the levels to hold.
Above 3565 is even better, and over 3577 is a strong comeback.

 

[AMITBE]

Only numbers are important now, so on to that.
Again, there is no point in discussing these in an involved manner so I’m going to keep it brief.

From long ranging data 3476 holds the magic for now, and it’s crucial for the Nifty to climb above this mark and hold it tonight.
Further below, a loss of 3459 at close today may likely dampen the spirits substantially.
A close above 3493, and the markets should be able to stage a comeback.
That’s it.

Just to round off the session, I'm bringing up the above from yesterday morning post.
There's an important number in there which some readers should recognise.
3493 has been discussed here in the past as a major turning point, without any doubt, from my work.
When 3527 and and more essentially, 3519 broke down earlier on, the Nifty went and hit this level directly.
Well, the low at 3492.75 is pretty darn the same as 3493, I'd say.
And I'd still say, now that this has been tested yet again, the markets are still in the game.

Another interesting aspect I've mentioned recently is the way I've been experimenting with a combination of the levels I work out, and some major trendlines.
Through this I come across quite a few crucial levels on a regular basis, infact I draw them on the tick chart as the day progresses.
Lately I often call some levels derived from this when I post follow-ups through the sessions. They regularly pan out just right.
3519 (hand cursor) called late in the session came from there.
3493 was a late day discovery.

Members who have RT data can check this out and create their own methods.

 

[AMITBE]

The following is brought forward from March 31, the morning following the last F&O expiry:

Not only can the big money arm-twist the Nifty, it can also hunt in packs with a great sense of timing.
Past 3 PM yesterday this was done, with several big players turning on the heat in perfect concert.
A perfect bear trap was laid, as the Nifty exactly at 2.30 PM, tested the near days low at 3379 (the real low being 3354, also the opening.).
A little before this, at 1.30 PM the Nifty had touched base at 3380 after testing around 3400. Then a feeble looking attempt was made at 3393, followed at once by a drop to 3379. Then another feeble attempt at 3387 followed by a drop to test 3378 a little before 3 PM. The highs were getting lower. An ordinary scenario on the last day of the contracts, with tugs and pulls from either side.
Then several counters began to move in concert.
I track ONGC, ITC, Bharti and Hind Lever as I hold these, and suddenly these and the Nifty of course began to move like all the meters on all the gas pumping machines at a gas station gone crazy all at once. Gallon after gallon after gallon. Pardon the Yankeeism.
In fact Hind Lever had been looking distinctly weak through the session trading below the previous close, right up till then.
The plundering took place between 3 and 3.15 PM, then at once, and as one, it turned direction.

Well, ONGC is historically known to be the one that is most used to fiddle the Nifty with.
On Wednesday where it shot up almost 70 points intraday to squeeze out the bears a day before the expiry, yesterday it abruptly shot down about 82 points to shut out the bulls.
Someone out there made a lot of bucks, tainted bucks tainted with the blood of innocent money.
A lot of innocent money also does the rounds of the markets, and this needs protection from the sharks.
While chasing the scams, the authorities may want to look into this manipulations as well.

Yeah, SEBI this and NSE that.
Karvi this and Indiabulls that.
And that is precisely that.

Else, the market is, and was till yesterday, chugging along just right in the thick of fantastic results from industry leaders that have been announced so far and those to be announced still.
Despite the extreme pressure manipulated on to the Nifty, the depth and breadth held up till the very end.
That speaks a lot, not just for the underlying strength despite the fall, but also for fiddling the Nifty contracts at expiry but buying in into the rest of the market.
The connection is too obvious to miss.

On another front, there is this hundred points plus up-down volatility thats causing concern.
The Nifty touches some base floor one moment, and the next moment it hits a ceiling way above.
Somewhere along the line one or the other level would break.
At these high levels, the chances of the ground splitting open are greater, big money waiting on the sidelines or not.
Oh well.

Theres no call to panic even if the market seems to want to tank first thing.
Buying should emerge amidst the heat and mayhem of tradingwhether today or soon enough.
Some important results also come out today with more to follow.

The levels.
Support line is 3504-3499-3494-3488-3484-3479-3476-3473-3467-3461-3458-3455-3449-3442-3437-3434.
More later if need be.

To the up, if 3513 and 3517 can be taken, then 3520-3526-3529 also need to be held for any upside.
But the up levels would have to be reviewed later for obvious reasons.