The following is brought forward from March 31, the morning following the last F&O expiry:
AMITBE said:
Not only can the big money arm-twist the Nifty, it can also hunt in packs with a great sense of timing.
Past 3 PM yesterday this was done, with several big players turning on the heat in perfect concert.
A perfect bear trap was laid, as the Nifty exactly at 2.30 PM, tested the near days low at 3379 (the real low being 3354, also the opening.).
A little before this, at 1.30 PM the Nifty had touched base at 3380 after testing around 3400. Then a feeble looking attempt was made at 3393, followed at once by a drop to 3379. Then another feeble attempt at 3387 followed by a drop to test 3378 a little before 3 PM. The highs were getting lower. An ordinary scenario on the last day of the contracts, with tugs and pulls from either side.
Then several counters began to move in concert.
I track ONGC, ITC, Bharti and Hind Lever as I hold these, and suddenly these and the Nifty of course began to move like all the meters on all the gas pumping machines at a gas station gone crazy all at once. Gallon after gallon after gallon. Pardon the Yankeeism.
In fact Hind Lever had been looking distinctly weak through the session trading below the previous close, right up till then.
The plundering took place between 3 and 3.15 PM, then at once, and as one, it turned direction.
Well, ONGC is historically known to be the one that is most used to fiddle the Nifty with.
On Wednesday where it shot up almost 70 points intraday to squeeze out the bears a day before the expiry, yesterday it abruptly shot down about 82 points to shut out the bulls.
Someone out there made a lot of bucks, tainted bucks tainted with the blood of innocent money.
A lot of innocent money also does the rounds of the markets, and this needs protection from the sharks.
While chasing the scams, the authorities may want to look into this manipulations as well.
Yeah, SEBI this and NSE that.
Karvi this and Indiabulls that.
And that is precisely that.
Else, the market is, and was till yesterday, chugging along just right in the thick of fantastic results from industry leaders that have been announced so far and those to be announced still.
Despite the extreme pressure manipulated on to the Nifty, the depth and breadth held up till the very end.
That speaks a lot, not just for the underlying strength despite the fall, but also for fiddling the Nifty contracts at expiry but buying in into the rest of the market.
The connection is too obvious to miss.
On another front, there is this hundred points plus up-down volatility thats causing concern.
The Nifty touches some base floor one moment, and the next moment it hits a ceiling way above.
Somewhere along the line one or the other level would break.
At these high levels, the chances of the ground splitting open are greater, big money waiting on the sidelines or not.
Oh well.
Theres no call to panic even if the market seems to want to tank first thing.
Buying should emerge amidst the heat and mayhem of tradingwhether today or soon enough.
Some important results also come out today with more to follow.
The levels.
Support line is
3504-3499-3494-3488-3484-3479-3476-3473-3467-3461-3458-3455-3449-3442-3437-3434.
More later if need be.
To the up, if
3513 and
3517 can be taken, then
3520-3526-3529 also need to be held for any upside.
But the up levels would have to be reviewed later for obvious reasons.