NIFTY FIFTY

[ragh_ash]

hi Amit,
remember yesterday i said all nifty stocks showing bullish signal, but still v had a fall except likes of M&M (piercing line), can u pl explain(whenever u have time) why/how this happens.
regards

 

[ravi1967]

hi Amit,
remember yesterday i said all nifty stocks showing bullish signal, but still v had a fall except likes of M&M (piercing line), can u pl explain(whenever u have time) why/how this happens.
regards

hai, sorry to reply in amitji's forum.in response to above, usually in a bear market, the prices try to pierce the previous days high, but fail to do so and test new lows again. this pattern has been continuing for some time. in a bull market the gains have to continue for atleast 2 days and then after a small downtrend in day 3, again go up between day 4 to day 10.(any of these days). if the uptrend starts after day 10, with consolidation/downtrends in day 4 to 10, then it is a confirmed bear trend. this pattern was found in nasdaq , when it fell from its high's and now this is being found in indian markets. i request the seniors to confirm this,as i may be wrong in my conclusion.also the weekly charts show a downtrend and the prices are moving in a triangular pattern within this downtrend bands.thats why the intraday volatility. also when oversold condition exists at end of day, uptrend is seen in charts. amitji am i correct?
bye

 

[AMITBE]

hi Amit,
remember yesterday i said all nifty stocks showing bullish signal, but still v had a fall except likes of M&M (piercing line), can u pl explain(whenever u have time) why/how this happens.
regards

Hi ragh_ash...
Firstly pretty much all candlestick patterns need confirmation the following day, so nothing should be assumed, especially bullish moves where the bigger picture is so poor world wide.
If anything it was all a bull trap, that is, if there are still any foolish bulls left standing out there.

M&M rallied quite likely for buying interest from some funds who are in for the long term and saw value emerging there. There was a buy call on it from a respected fund management service yesterday.
We will see sporadic rallies in specific counters while the wider market remains bearish.

I'm not going too much by charting at this time. The market is all over the place.
Charts are easier to resolve with hindsight in such times.
As ravi has explained, yes that would be the theory behind the price action.

I wonder if this answers your query?
Regards.

 

[AMITBE]

I've been feeling that at this point there's not a lot of virtue in running this thread each morning.
With the way things are in the markets, it would amount to being compulsive.

Clearly the markets are heading in a southwards channel, and is being played out by FIIS, hedge funds etc.
Till the frenzy dies down there, were not likely to see any clarity.
The stakes are very high for these players and they are doing all they can to play things there way, using their huge money clout.

The market is also being influenced by weak, speculative hands which is evident from the way shorts are increasing. They are just all over the dropping Nifty futures like a vicious swarm of bees.
For the rest, speculative buyers buy in at every rally and offload heavily at the first sign of trouble, pushing the market lower.

Pankaj and NK have a good discussion going, and I feel it is the more appropriate way to go in such times.
So Im sitting out for now till there is something important to say.

Later today Ill look up some long term levels and post them here.
Perhaps then some Elliott/Fibonacci experts could come in with comments.

 

[pkjha30]

Hi
Amit

Writings are all over the wall.

The situation is abnormal in the sense when we analyse on the basis of Technical , it is assumed that indicators are sum total os all variables behaving in natural way. But in situations like this, assumption amy not be valid. As FIIs are the players who decide what conditions to create.

You decision is something which all have to respect and also understand.
Had you contiued it would have been a great record of struggle and how it panned out .

Pankaj

 

[karthikmarar]

PK

You have hit the nail on the head. Even during the bull run the Nifty defied all technical indications. so many divergences and the nifty went on relentlessly. So obviously now we cannot expect the technical indicators to work when the nifty has to dance to the tunes of the FIIs. So far me no TA now... going back to my books as I said before.

regards

 

[SGM]

Later today Ill look up some long term levels and post them here.

Hello Amit Dada

Will miss your posts, its become a habbit to start the day with. Its been gr8 to follow the market action with the levels that you post here daily. Perhaps the de-addiction will also do us some good.

Hope to get updates from you, may be on weekly basis now onwards...

Thanks and Regards
Sanjay

 

[pkjha30]

PK

You have hit the nail on the head. Even during the bull run the Nifty defied all technical indications. so many divergences and the nifty went on relentlessly. So obviously now we cannot expect the technical indicators to work when the nifty has to dance to the tunes of the FIIs. So far me no TA now... going back to my books as I said before.

regards

Hi karthik

Again, books will always be there and you will have time to read it. But right now a great learning experience is coming your way. For a long time this may not happen again in this manner. Keep a close watch on various aspects of market and its behaviour. It will help.

Pankaj

 

[nkpanjiyar]

I've been feeling that at this point there's not a lot of virtue in running this thread each morning.
With the way things are in the markets, it would amount to being compulsive.

Clearly the markets are heading in a southwards channel, and is being played out by FIIS, hedge funds etc.
Till the frenzy dies down there, were not likely to see any clarity.
The stakes are very high for these players and they are doing all they can to play things there way, using their huge money clout.

The market is also being influenced by weak, speculative hands which is evident from the way shorts are increasing. They are just all over the dropping Nifty futures like a vicious swarm of bees.
For the rest, speculative buyers buy in at every rally and offload heavily at the first sign of trouble, pushing the market lower.

Pankaj and NK have a good discussion going, and I feel it is the more appropriate way to go in such times.
So Im sitting out for now till there is something important to say.

Later today Ill look up some long term levels and post them here.
Perhaps then some Elliott/Fibonacci experts could come in with comments.

Had nothing to add at this point of market madness. Here is something for you dear friend Amit.

http://www.traderji.com/18992-post1.html

I believe you will really enjoy reading this.

cheers,
nkpanjiyar

 

[karthikmarar]

Hi karthik

Again, books will always be there and you will have time to read it. But right now a great learning experience is coming your way. For a long time this may not happen again in this manner. Keep a close watch on various aspects of market and its behaviour. It will help.

Pankaj

Yes PK, It is a great learning experience and obviously I cannot turn away from the market. The stock market and TA have become a part of my being and cannot be separated from me . Books form a part of my relaxation plan as well .

Karthik