Very early last week this was written:
In a bull market, take periodical reality tests to test the strength to the down and the upward moves would follow logically.
The above was written looking at the moves in the preceding week then.
That week had seen much intraday volatility where lower levels were repeatedly under threat but held firm, making way for a sharp weekly gain of almost a hundred points.
Similar intraday volatility was seen last week too, with the reality test coming on Thursday when the Nifty came dangerously close to breaking down at 2764, and surviving which, closed with a weekly gain of about fifty points the next day.
Also noted at Friday close of that preceding week was, that no one buys in strong into the fading moments of a Friday to come in and sell hard first thing into the new week, and no one did.
We are at the head of a new week yet again where strong buying was seen on Friday last, right to the end in a last hour surge.
So where are we heading now?
In the first post Friday morning two dates were suggested as being days for significant moves. Friday itself was one of the days given and the Nifty did make a significant move by any yardstick.
On Friday pre-noon session there was no indication of where things were heading. 2784 was referred to as Rahul Dravid by adilsaleem for being the Wall. That level had the Nifty in a bind and the severe conflict there is vividly depicted in the chart uploaded Friday evening. Several tops were made there evoking a sharp reaction each time. It was only late afternoon when the tide turned after a pretty volatile and bearish morning.
The other date given was today, Monday Dec 19.
And if the adage that no one buys strong on Friday to squander the lead first thing in the new week is true, it adds credence to today being another gain day, however significant the move.
Here Id want to return to my favourite harp and go back to another post from Friday on the turning point for the Nifty, and the centrifugal law quoted as a metaphor at the risk of sounding like a stoned hippy (for it generated a nil for response).
The idea being explored there is, the difficult level at 2799 as the pivot center has spun the Nifty towards 2764 to one direction, and 2821 in the other. The turbulent volatility in either direction is likened to the velocity of the spin. Considering the price action of the Nifty over the past week, the physical law being invoked here would lead to the assumption that now the Nifty is exerting an acute pressure against the pivot center to break away from it with force.
The various points discussed above do suggest that the direction of the breakout is to the up.
If the contrary be the case, today will show it.
If this is a lateral kind of Technical Analysis, I feel self-assured that it has its high merit in the scheme of things I have been exploring for some time now.
To go on to the levels:
It has been mentioned earlier that 2822-2832 may see intense activity.
If we get that far, some important levels along the way would be 2813-2818-2822-2826-2829.
If 2832 is taken with more left on the table, 2843 is the next potential level. And then 2848 and 2854.
When and if we get there, Ill post the levels as we go along the journey there.
The support levels are known from the price action last week: 2804-2799-2796-2794-2792-2788-2784-2777-2773.
At this point Im raising some interesting possibilities going ahead.
2866 and 2917 are coming up as levels where we may see an important event on the Niftya possible reversal?
There are two sets of dates coming up:
December 23 and 29.
January 3 and 6, 2006.
I may be jumping the gun big time, but this is my work in progress, you see.
In a bull market, take periodical reality tests to test the strength to the down and the upward moves would follow logically.
The above was written looking at the moves in the preceding week then.
That week had seen much intraday volatility where lower levels were repeatedly under threat but held firm, making way for a sharp weekly gain of almost a hundred points.
Similar intraday volatility was seen last week too, with the reality test coming on Thursday when the Nifty came dangerously close to breaking down at 2764, and surviving which, closed with a weekly gain of about fifty points the next day.
Also noted at Friday close of that preceding week was, that no one buys in strong into the fading moments of a Friday to come in and sell hard first thing into the new week, and no one did.
We are at the head of a new week yet again where strong buying was seen on Friday last, right to the end in a last hour surge.
So where are we heading now?
In the first post Friday morning two dates were suggested as being days for significant moves. Friday itself was one of the days given and the Nifty did make a significant move by any yardstick.
On Friday pre-noon session there was no indication of where things were heading. 2784 was referred to as Rahul Dravid by adilsaleem for being the Wall. That level had the Nifty in a bind and the severe conflict there is vividly depicted in the chart uploaded Friday evening. Several tops were made there evoking a sharp reaction each time. It was only late afternoon when the tide turned after a pretty volatile and bearish morning.
The other date given was today, Monday Dec 19.
And if the adage that no one buys strong on Friday to squander the lead first thing in the new week is true, it adds credence to today being another gain day, however significant the move.
Here Id want to return to my favourite harp and go back to another post from Friday on the turning point for the Nifty, and the centrifugal law quoted as a metaphor at the risk of sounding like a stoned hippy (for it generated a nil for response).
The idea being explored there is, the difficult level at 2799 as the pivot center has spun the Nifty towards 2764 to one direction, and 2821 in the other. The turbulent volatility in either direction is likened to the velocity of the spin. Considering the price action of the Nifty over the past week, the physical law being invoked here would lead to the assumption that now the Nifty is exerting an acute pressure against the pivot center to break away from it with force.
The various points discussed above do suggest that the direction of the breakout is to the up.
If the contrary be the case, today will show it.
If this is a lateral kind of Technical Analysis, I feel self-assured that it has its high merit in the scheme of things I have been exploring for some time now.
To go on to the levels:
It has been mentioned earlier that 2822-2832 may see intense activity.
If we get that far, some important levels along the way would be 2813-2818-2822-2826-2829.
If 2832 is taken with more left on the table, 2843 is the next potential level. And then 2848 and 2854.
When and if we get there, Ill post the levels as we go along the journey there.
The support levels are known from the price action last week: 2804-2799-2796-2794-2792-2788-2784-2777-2773.
At this point Im raising some interesting possibilities going ahead.
2866 and 2917 are coming up as levels where we may see an important event on the Niftya possible reversal?
There are two sets of dates coming up:
December 23 and 29.
January 3 and 6, 2006.
I may be jumping the gun big time, but this is my work in progress, you see.
