NIFTY FIFTY

[AMITBE]

Yesterday sure turned out to be a bear-trap finally. The fall was negated very early in the session in the 2790s and it was quite clearly going to be a bad day for the bears and the last hour charge did all the damage. The high went as far as 2829, the last traded was 2827 and the closing price fixed it at 2721.95. Very good, as far as the numbers here go.

Yet again poised for upper levels, the issue as always is whether it will stick this time.
Or will it be a replay of last week when higher levels were surrendered.

Its clear that in the short term at least, a good base has been formed on either side of 2764, and the downside for now is not quite threatening. Thats been tested over and over again and found to be strong.
Its the upside thats been the cause of concern. Theyve not really bought in above 2835 with any show of conviction.
So ok, long time no see 2835, but we are back again.

If we are going to test uplevels again, the price discovery for the new F&O contracts would certainly help as the operators would indulge in boosting some index counters.
But that really does not amount to buying for keeps, and only firm follow through buying will keep matters high and higher in the near term.
So today should provide an early lead to when and where the climax is coming.
The strong belief is early January would see a correction.
It would be prudent to keep profits and offload at a likely peak sometime soon.

We may see a range bound activity around and above 2835 for now.

2835 is going to be important with 2826-2829-2832 being the levels there.
If we get that far, 2841 would be next and then 2848.
2838-2841-2844 are the levels there. 2844 to 2848 is pretty dense.
Immediate supports are pretty strong and the important levels are 2820-2818-2816-2814-2812-2810-2806. 2803 may form a strong bottom.

 

[AMITBE]

2835 is going to be important with 2826-2829-2832 being the levels there.
If we get that far, 2841 would be next and then 2848.
2838-2841-2844 are the levels there. 2844 to 2848 is pretty dense.
Immediate supports are pretty strong and the important levels are 2820-2818-2816-2814-2812-2810-2806. 2803 may form a strong bottom.

There are two important levels at least in the short term this point:
2828 as support and 2836 as resistance.
2839-2842-2845 would be possibilities if 2836 is held.
Going below 2828 could render the Nifty weak at least temporarily.
At 2831 now.

 

[AMITBE]

There are two important levels at least in the short term this point:
2828 as support and 2836 as resistance.
2839-2842-2845 would be possibilities if 2836 is held.
Going below 2828 could render the Nifty weak at least temporarily.
At 2831 now.

For the Nth time 2836 has been tested again and if held this time, the levels are given above.
For the rest it's been around and not quite so above 2835 for most of the session.

 

[AMITBE]

There are two important levels at least in the short term this point:
2828 as support and 2836 as resistance.
2839-2842-2845 would be possibilities if 2836 is held.
Going below 2828 could render the Nifty weak at least temporarily.
At 2831 now.

The last traded price was 2833 and the close would be not far from 2835.
2828 and 2836 were suggested as above as crucial levels in both directions and at taking 2836 only did the Nifty make progress to hit 2845 max. There is something about these numbers and what they can do.
Enclosing the last traded chart to see how 2828 and 2836 played out through 2839-2842 to 2845. They are marked in red
May be of interest to a few here.
The quote from above is from when the Nifty was yet to test 2828 from 2831.

 

[AMITBE]

At the high note of being on the first session of a new week, month and year, Id like to thank all the readers of this thread for their support and encouragement. I do hope some of the members have found it to be useful and worthy of this fine forum.
Mapping the Nifty on a daily basis has its hazards, yet its been one of the most enjoyable activities Ive indulged in, and more importantly it has helped me understand the markets better and consequentially, trade better.
When Ive been off the mark, I dont know enough. When Ive been accurate, theres so much more to learn. This is the sticky thought that remains at the top of each post I write here. Its been great sharing my learning process.

To pickup the thread from Friday morning post, long time no see 2835 and we are back there again.
Over most of the week before the last was when the Nifty was here, clearly seeking higher grounds and struggling. After several volatile attempts to the up went unsuccessful, there was a retracement to test the strength lower down and then back up again.
The doggedness with which higher levels are being sought clearly indicates there is room left to the up.
Yet the acute conflict at these higher levels in that past period give the sense that we may be approaching an important top in the near term before going in for a correction. This is also supported by the general consensus amongst the market statisticians, that early January is known to head south.
How deep the correction would go is what the experts would be debating soon. Looking at the continued flow of liquidity and the lineup of waiting FIIs, and the quarterly result season followed by the Budget and the annual results, the correction may not be frighteningly deep.
Greed and ready cash are the known co-conspirators of most rallies. We need to be swift-footed and quick-witted going forward.

For now volatility is going to be the name of the game till 2853-2857 are firmly taken. That would form the launching pad for higher goals.
2839-2842-2845-2848 are the important marks to scale. 2848 looks tough and when taken, the immediate target would be 2860 above which lies much challenge and congestion.
To the low, 2834-2832-2830-2828-2826-2822 are all supports. 2816 could form an important bottom in case of a sharp drop.

 

[AMITBE]

2839-2842-2845-2848 are the important marks to scale. 2848 looks tough and when taken, the immediate target would be 2860 above which lies much challenge and congestion.
To the low, 2834-2832-2830-2828-2826-2822 are all supports. 2816 could form an important bottom in case of a sharp drop.

Consolidating well all morning, 2847-2848 are to be watched for progress. When taken 2855 can prove a bit of a hitch, then 2860.
2835 has formed a decent support.

 

[AMITBE]

Consolidating well all morning, 2847-2848 are to be watched for progress. When taken 2855 can prove a bit of a hitch, then 2860.
2835 has formed a decent support.

The top at 2849 came after a prolonged struggle at 2847-2848 and the failure to hold there led to the sharp drop.
It may have been a round of profit booking or shorting, but didn't appear too convincing for a strong fall.
Coming off 2825 now, and a climb above 2835 is safe grounds. A move to take 2839 is possible and if so, it's strong enough for another fight for higher levels another day.
2816 still stands as a possible strong bottom.

 

[AMITBE]

The top at 2849 came after a prolonged struggle at 2847-2848 and the failure to hold there led to the sharp drop.
It may have been a round of profit booking or shorting, but didn't appear too convincing for a strong fall.
Coming off 2825 now, and a climb above 2835 is safe grounds. A move to take 2839 is possible and if so, it's strong enough for another fight for higher levels another day.
2816 still stands as a possible strong bottom.

To add to above, if we close below 2816, please be very cautious as that would be an early sign of weakness.
If that should happen, in the short term the Nifty may have attempted 2850 plus levels unsuccessfully one too many times.
The pullback from 2825 did get as far as 2835 for now.

 

[AMITBE]

The top at 2849 came after a prolonged struggle at 2847-2848 and the failure to hold there led to the sharp drop.
It may have been a round of profit booking or shorting, but didn't appear too convincing for a strong fall.
Coming off 2825 now, and a climb above 2835 is safe grounds. A move to take 2839 is possible and if so, it's strong enough for another fight for higher levels another day.
2816 still stands as a possible strong bottom.

The pullback off 2825 did get as far as 2839 and fell off to close a tad above 2835.
Volatile and flat, and not too bad.

 

[AMITBE]

If the market is a battleground between the weak hands and strong hands, it does seem as if currently its the weak hands that are holding long positions on the Nifty in a speculative manner. They dont have the wherewithal to push the action to higher grounds, but are keeping the index in a trading range.
The proceedings get volatile at higher levels, rapidly lose the lead from there, and then comes the buying support lower down.
This cannot last too long, as anytime now, the cracks would begin to appear. With the movement witnessed for the last couple of weeks, panic selling can set in at the break of a couple of important triggers.
For the upside to happen, its the turn of the strong hands to move in at this point.
The proceedings are interestingly, and even more than a tad threateningly poised at the current levels.
More than this there is nothing to say, as the strength has been repeatedly tested right down to 2725 recently and found to be intact so far, and there is still no buying support still on the horizon at 2850 plus.

As I had in a post in mid December called for some significant activity for today, January 3, Im pulling this out now. The levels which were mentioned were 2866 and 2917.
The standards set for significant moves so far for the other dates have been in the range of 30-35 points each.
Ive had difficulties with calling the direction of the moves, and Im not going to venture into that this morning. Things are too delicately poised, even if the close at 2835 last night retains some semblance of an advantage to favour a move to the up.

For the Nifty to move higher its vital to take and hold 2841 and then 2849.
2837 and 2839 are the levels on the way to 2841, and past this 2843 and 2845 to 2849.
2852-2855-2858-2861 are the levels if 2866 or thereabouts is attempted.
Supports are at 2833-2830-2828-2826.
Will post some more shortly.