Its almost as if Monday and Tuesday never happened.
On Friday last, we closed shop at 2804.
Monday came and dramatically whacked the Nifty down to 2749.
Tuesday came and lustily hauled it back to about Friday close.
Then came yesterday, Wednesday, and with ironical absentmindedness denying the existence of the two historical interlaid sessions, seemingly picked up the action from Friday close with moves that truly appeared to have been cleverly choreographed in conformity to the troubled week gone by, level for level:
Started quiet at 2806, dipped sharp to 2793, darted up to test 2825, then with increasing volatility fell back to 2780, attempted a recovery, lost ground, gained some but lost again, and then ended flat at 2794.
But in reality it was your typically mundane and volatile day at the markets, a day ahead of the Thursday contracts expiry.
But dont we then need to account for Monday and Tuesday?
What was the point of all that drama?
No really, we cant just let that go without trying to making sense of it.
Why, it may even give us a lead to where things are heading in the near term as we go in on this contracts expiry day.
So there was obviously no buying support at higher levels most of last week.
The Nifty went as high as 2853-2857 and consistently tried to scale these levels.
Visibly there was no hard sell pressure either, as 2799 held out twice and for the rest the low stayed well above 2810.
Then Monday came, then Tuesday.
We now know there was strong broad based buying on Tuesday after the fall on Monday, and a fair deal on Monday itself too.
The market is a battleground between strong hands and weak hands.
The strong hands at no point last week had really abandoned the fight, they had merely stayed to the back and kept things from sliding hard, collecting at every low.
Then the Reliance thing happened, and the masses dont want to get in the way of that and ran, while the strong hands continued to buy into Reliance keeping it above bear triggers, and in the bargain bought a whole lot of others at decent levels too.
Then the exchanges issued clarifications and the analysts expressed bullish tendencies on Reliance.
In a breathtaking rally, the Nifty recovered more than it had lost.
The picture is clear. The strong hands won in both directions.
And going by yesterdays session, there are still around.
The smart move of 35 points from 2780 to about 2815 in one go is evidence enough of buying in hard at low levels.
To step back a little, it appears from last week that the climax is close at hand doesnt it.
If a final top is to come, will it come going forward without further ado?
Or will it come later at some point after drifting down again?
These are moot questions that time alone can answer with certainty.
One can but try.
In a remark made on Dec 19 here, today amongst others was suggested as a significant day, though now Monday and Tuesday have taken the honours.
Even so, that call still stands, but to interpret the direction is the difficult one.
The question raised in that post was if a reversal, meaning a fall, would be it.
I had recently gone contrary to another earlier call and was proven to be wrong.
Today again Id prefer to go contrary.
Im going with gains.
There just may be a bear-trap laying in wait.
The discussion above was meant to be pointing to this.
These are merely my loud thoughts, written without TA and charting, though there are enough negative divergences present in many indicators.
If we go wrong again, so be it.
At least the levels of conflict have been coming along rather well, and these for today are:
2813 is vital to cross and hold for progress to the up. 2796-2798-2800-2802-2804-2807-2810-2813. Past these 2816-2819-2822-2825-2828-2832.
Down below are 2792-2790-2787-2785-2782-2780-2778-2776-2773-2769-2766.
Just one more thing. I have been uploading the charts at close daily to set a clear view of how the action happens in relation to the levels put down here every morning. Im going to discontinue this as of today.
Clearly almost all the conflicts take place at precisely, or very close to, these levels. This is not a thread for making trading calls on the Nifty, but the members can certainly keep the numbers handy in case there are index traders Reading these.
