NIFTY FIFTY

[AMITBE]

At this point Im raising some interesting possibilities going ahead.
2866 and 2917 are coming up as levels where we may see an important event on the Niftya possible reversal?
There are two sets of dates coming up:
December 23 and 29.
January 3 and 6, 2006.
I may be jumping the gun big time, but this is my work in progress, you see.

The above was written on Dec 19.
Now, for the life of me I cannot trace what it may have been that inspired this. I try and keep track of all the charts I make but any material pointing to this is missing. Theres been a number overload, and I should conduct this research in a more orderly manner.

Nevertheless since the above was posted, I'm pulling it up now as this is one of the days mentioned.
The reversal mentioned aside, this is certainly looking like an important day for sure.
A reversal to the up appears the more likely scenario at this point.

To recap the last few sessions, the probes to the up have not met with buying support from the big boys so far. This should change soon.
Levels to the down have been tested for critical strength, which was found to be intact.
Yesterdays low was higher than the previous one while the highs were pretty much at par.
The trading range been created spans 2799 on the down to 2853 to the up.
Both these are also the prime numbers in my charts here.
2799 is well established while 2853 lies relatively un-fiddled.

In a long term bull-run, the advantage always lies with the bulls, this has been mentioned earlier. The periodical regrouping shows up as consolidation, and at historical heights a cautious approach defines the bull-run as a sustainable one.
The bears in this setting will subsist on random pickings and will seek opportunities at every peak.
When the bulls refuse to yield beyond a point and exert pressure, the bears are obliged to surrender and even change sides.

So again, what next.

An interesting term I found by chance in yesterday mornings post, and being treated as a notion rather than literally as so many other terms, is compression.
Number energy is likened to number compression.
The movement the last couple of sessions was volatile with a pretty wide swing, nevertheless we had seen some major struggles shifting from a certain lower level to a certain higher one and back again, as seen in the intraday charts.
The high and lows have compressed the Nifty.
The high at 2853 has shifted to 2835, while 2799 low has moved up to 2818.
With this compression, the Nifty appears set for a move which may even turn explosive.
The directional call is the difficult one, but well learn from our mistakes if things go awry, and go with the up.

The levels, 2842-43 is close by yet vital.
The next major level is 2853, with 2845-2848-2851 falling along the way.
The next highpoint is 2866 with 2857-2860-2863 being important marks to there.
Well be rocking if 2878 is tested with 2870 and 2874 acting as testing grounds.
And if 2878 is takenwell come to it then.

Rather lofty the aim, but then these are merely numbers.

The supports are of course well known by now.

Oh one more thing...we are on a Friday again.
It's not an easy day for traders, but if are going to see a significant move, it would only happen with the big players buying in.
The last two Fridays have not kept them back.

 

[AMITBE]

As the action has shifted yet again to lower levels, these are the immediate supports for now:
Below 2834, 2832-2827-2825-2823.
2821 is a major mark so I'm leaving it here for now.

 

[AMITBE]

Just trying to make sense of the action so far and thinking aloud.
2799 and 2853 have been mentioned as prime numbers.
So are 2810-2821-2832-2843 in between those two mentioned above.
These levels being wider apart than the closely set intraday levels, obviously have a greater orb of influence.
2827 is roughly the half way point between 2799 and 2853.
The Nifty has just bounced off 2827 off a while ago.
For me this signifies that the pull from 2853 is stronger at this point.
2832, one of the prime numbers mentioned above has seen some intensity in the last half hour or so.
Now 2832 is breaking again at this point, and this is another H&S break.
From the likely fall then, 2827 stands to be tested again if 2829 doesn't arrest the fall.
Below that 2821 is the prime number again.

To the up, it's very clear from this numbers jumble, that we need to take 2845 to build strength. Anything above 2835 though proven to be not enough so far, would help nevertheless.

Must apologise for this very quaint reasoning, but that's the way it's been.
In thinking aloud, I'm sharing all this with those interested.

 

[AMITBE]

Yes...the perils of taking contrarian calls are many.
The source of that insight which suggested a reversal mentioned on Dec 19 wasn't found amidst all my material here.
But the levels that were posted that morning are way above from here: 2866 and 2917.
So something big my still lie ahead at some other date. A few dates are mentioned there, and it would be interesting to see what happens then.

Today has shown to be a significant day however.
Yet it's by no means anywhere close to being a reversal...not as yet.
Interestingly, the wide swinging intraday volatility seen last few sessions is reminiscent of early to late last week, just ahead of the big moves that came on Friday and Monday last.
Those gains are pretty much all but gone at this point.

With 2821 breaking down, 2810 then 2799 were mentioned as prime levels from longer range readings. We've come close enough to 2799 yet.
Some members my recall 2804 which saw some repeated action on the way up.
That level has held things together for now.
Amongst the various levels being mentioned over the last several sessions, below 2821 have been 2818-2813-2810. These have all featured again today, and will upload the chart at close.
Should we descend lower still to below 2799, supports would be found at 2796-2794-2792-2788

For now, the closer we get to 2827 the more this bear charge would be neutralised.

 

[AMITBE]

Except for the huge gap-up opening the bulls never really put up a showing for the rest of the day with the bears taking charge at every peak.

The only positive aspect in the end is that the critical bastion at 2799 was not given up and the slide was pushed back at 2799.70 low.
Another blessing is the close a shade above 2804 at 2804.85, creating a minor buffer.
Those following these postings would recognise these number surely.

This hair's-breadth kind of escape may appear as insignificant to many but not to me.
A number is a number is a number.
And what better evidence of this than the magically recurrent oscillation of these numbers in the path of the Nifty, that we've had the privilage of witnessing.
So again, many a strong winning blows have been dealt from the edges of defeat.
We are not done here yet.

The intraday chart is enclosed.

 

[nkpanjiyar]

Except for the huge gap-up opening the bulls never really put up a showing for the rest of the day with the bears taking charge at every peak.

The only positive aspect in the end is that the critical bastion at 2799 was not given up and the slide was pushed back at 2799.70 low.
Another blessing is the close a shade above 2804 at 2804.85, creating a minor buffer.
Those following these postings would recognise these number surely.

This hair's-breadth kind of escape may appear as insignificant to many but not to me.
A number is a number is a number.
And what better evidence of this than the magically recurrent oscillation of these numbers in the path of the Nifty, that we've had the privilage of witnessing.
So again, many a strong winning blows have been dealt from the edges of defeat.
We are not done here yet.

The intraday chart is enclosed.

Very true Amit. The way today NIFTY dived 30 pts down, I was afraid it will break 2799. May be Christmas spending has brought market down today.

Any way wishing you and all Merry Christmas !!!

cheers,
nkpanjiyar

 

[AMITBE]

Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday last week, the Nifty in its search for higher levels (it was certainly not feeling around for direction) had begun to get increasingly volatile with extreme levels tested intraday each day: 2799 was tested to the low and 2853 to the high. Both are mentioned as primary longer term levels.
Then on Friday the all time intraday high at 2857 gave a sharp reaction sending it plummeting to test 2804. A strong pullback was attempted towards the end that lost steam at 2818. 2799 was then tested a second time in the week and the end came at a feeble looking 2804.
No fears as yet.
The higher levels have not yielded yet and lower levels are being retested for strength.
A common event.

But how much lower can the Nifty go under to look for a bottom and yet remain within the orb of influence of 2799?
Im getting 2745 as the extreme outer fringe for that level.
Below that the jurisdiction would change, and the next lower center of power, the last major turning point we have just come past, would be 2697 again.
Go back a few pages and see what drama had recently unfolded at 2697. Its all documented here.

To recap then, 2745 is likely to be the extreme bottom if the Nifty decides to dip deeper while retaining its right to reach back for higher levels of 2800s without much effort.
If 2745 breaks, itll have to forego that right temporarily and go deeper still.

However there are two strong supports above 2745:
2757 and 2764.
The last lowest that the Nifty has done in recent times is 2764.

So again, what is a likely scenario now?

If the Nifty seeks a higher close today, then tomorrow, Dec 27, it may likely form an important high, setting up Dec 29 for a showdown.
And if it closes lower today, tomorrow is likely to see an important low being threatened with Dec 29 again being set up as an important day for action.

Again recall, Dec 29 had been mentioned as an important day besides Dec 23, which has already done its bit, meaning the 31 points loss last Friday.
From that morning's post last Monday, 2866 and 2917 are still hanging fire, as are January 3 and 6 2006, from the material I have misplaced here.

And again Im saying this to the members:
This is work in progress. We have been hitting the mark accurately so far, be it intraday levels or dates for significant moves. The documentation is here to stand by this.
One of these days things may go completely off, and I am waiting for it as then I can go looking for possibilities that I yet dont know exist.
Thats the only way to find the way forward in any research.

The levels:
To the down, below 2799 lies another important support at 2797. Further below are 2794-2791-2788. 2788 is an important support. Lower down are 2785-2783-2781 with another important support at 2779. If we go lower, will post then.
To the up, its important to take 2816. 2819 is next and 2823 is important. Then 2727, mentioned as the half way point between 2799 and 2853. Things would look good above here.

 

[AMITBE]

The levels:
To the down, below 2799 lies another important support at 2797. Further below are 2794-2791-2788. 2788 is an important support. Lower down are 2785-2783-2781 with another important support at 2779. If we go lower, will post then.
To the up, it’s important to take 2816. 2819 is next and 2823 is important. Then 2727, mentioned as the half way point between 2799 and 2853. Things would look good above here.

Quite a panic at the opening.
At 2777 now, and lower supports are at 2775-2771-2769-2767-2763-2759
.

 

[AMITBE]

From my study, today is meant to be more of a pointer for the more significant moves to come tomorrow and on Dec 29. Today is not meant to be the significant move day but merely a pointer.
As far as the term 'significant' goes, all the days that have come true to the call made on them have seen a move of about 30 odd points.
We are sitting on a loss of about 40 points already today which is way more than a pointer.
By the standards established for significant moves, the loss today should be well short of 30. Even less than 20.
This is what is suggested in the studay here. Going by this, the implication is that there may be a strongish recovery later to close the gap?

For now the levels below 2759 are 2757-2755-2753-2750-2747.
That would bring us to 2745 mentioned as the point below which the Nifty enters a deeper realm.

 

[AMITBE]

A pretty dismal session so far, and unless there is a sharp recovery attempted sometime soon, 2745 would begin to look quite breachable.
If 2745 is broken, whether today or at another time, 2721 is found to be the level that would protect the fall from entering 2600 and below.

These are some immediate levels below 2745: 2743-2741-2739-2737-2735.