NIFTY FIFTY

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AMITBE said:
Hi Narendra, the above is from my response to you last night.

3177 and 3192 show up as 'turning points' in my readings and are going to be strong levels in times ahead. They did not show up as the major conflict levels for today and so were not marked in red when posted. However they did turn out to be pretty tough.

Both have seen a fair deal of conflict today.
3177 had the Nifty fighting to pass it between 11 and 11.45 AM. Once taken, this became a strong support on a couple of occasions.
3192 did not let the Nifty cross it between 3.30 and 4 PM.
3195 had come up as another major level for today and 3194 was as high as the Nifty went. 3195 may or may not come up for tomorrow's readings.
The activity at the various conflict levels posted today can clearly be seen in the attached chart.

I've seen at times that the intensity of certain numbers changes, and also that certain numbers have an orb of influence reaching further from themselves in either direction.
The other likely turning point level written to you last night, 3207 may likely come into play at some point.

Your comments are welcome.
Regards.
Well, as always, you were right again. Does this mean that we would see a bull run for a month or so. I am a novice , just started off trading since two years or so. At starting I used to trade equity shares and had a very bad experience. Since then , I only trade nifty futures. Concentrating on one stock is better than seeing for opportunities in many. Well ,this idea have shown me consistency. I have learnt lot of things from you and intend to learn more.
And one more thing. I have seen these yearly levels work better for nifty futures than nifty. I am attaching a chart of nifty futures. Could you tell me what could be the reason behind this.
 

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AMITBE said:
3177 and 3192 show up as 'turning points' in my readings and are going to be strong levels in times ahead. They did not show up as the major conflict levels for today and so were not marked in red when posted. However they did turn out to be pretty tough.

On my charts i had got 3159,3164,3193.25 as important levels.Does crossing of 3164 means that the downward move has been negated.
 

AMITBE

Well-Known Member
gvnarendra said:
Well, as always, you were right again. Does this mean that we would see a bull run for a month or so. I am a novice , just started off trading since two years or so. At starting I used to trade equity shares and had a very bad experience. Since then , I only trade nifty futures. Concentrating on one stock is better than seeing for opportunities in many. Well ,this idea have shown me consistency. I have learnt lot of things from you and intend to learn more.
And one more thing. I have seen these yearly levels work better for nifty futures than nifty. I am attaching a chart of nifty futures. Could you tell me what could be the reason behind this.
Hi Narendra, no, I am not always right. No one ever is.
The best that one can do through research, observation and following a working system is to become consistent.
The downwards move may be negated for a short period of time, but eventually things will have to scale down.
One follows the system and trades accordingly.
All the best.
 

AMITBE

Well-Known Member
Looking at the record book, one finds that a crossover at a major round figure has never passed off peacefully. The pressure begins to mount closing in and passing it. At times the momentum has carried the Nifty well into the next hundred area, but has always had to look back soon enough.
We are looking at 3200 plus levels now.
Barring a couple of flat and slightly negative sessions, this would be the twelfth day of the climb.
While the law of averages may seem to be beginning to stack against the continuation of the climb, the important factor to note, besides the new money pouring in, is the upbeat market breadth that turned clearly positive yesterday. It hasnt been seen like this in a long time. Based on this single factor alone, the analysts have been expressing the jitters for the last two hundred points. That has got straightened out yesterday.

So where to from here.
Yes, there is a lot of new money invested in the system that would want to stretch its gains further.
But there is also a lot of not so new money in the system that would be looking to book out soon, with the Nifty hanging over the psychological mark of 3200.
The inevitability of testing supports lower down for strength, would be creating its own pressure, with the bears waiting in the wings at these levels. It wouldnt take a lot of doing for the jitters to resurface here.
So the likely scenario coming up sometime soon is increased volatility with sharp swings in either direction, whether today or the next few days.
Exhilaration may be given its due place, but with great caution.

The levels, the line at 3195-3199-3204-3207-3211 is the first to get above.
Then 3215-3219-3223-3227.
This entire area is difficult with a few triggers in there especially at 3204-3211 and 3215-3219.

Supports are 3186-3183-3178-3174-3170-3167-3164-3161-3158.
3146-3149-3152 is a base line.
 

AMITBE

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AMITBE said:
The levels, the line at 3195-3199-3204-3207-3211 is the first to get above.
Then 3215-3219-3223-3227.
This entire area is difficult with a few triggers in there especially at 3204-3211 and 3215-3219.

Supports are 3186-3183-3178-3174-3170-3167-3164-3161-3158.
3146-3149-3152 is a base line.
A good consolidation under way all morning.
At this time the line at 3183-3188-3192 has to be taken before momentum to the up can come.
Should that happen, the line would be 3194-3197-3200-3203.

Supports are the same as posted this morning.
 

AMITBE

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Normally, the reaction to the deplorable terror assault in Varanasi last evening would send ripples through the markets if that insane act had been committed during the trading hours.
However one cannot be sure how the markets react at the opening, how much of the bad news would be adjusted for, how the picture develops through the day with the various political parties trying to earn brownie points through provocative statements, calls for Bandhs etc.
Not a good time for the markets, nor for the country and its people.

Even without the bomb blasts, yesterday the market was stuttering about to seek direction, even if the supports almost thirty points down from the previous close were tested and found to be good. The marginally lower close itself would not give reason for panic.
But its different this morning, and much would depend on sane and calming voices of the various political groups, or the lack of them.

For supports first, 3181-3877-3175-3173-3171-3169-3166-3163-3160-3157-3154.
3135-3142-3149 seems a strong line for now.

To the up for starters, is the line at 3184-3186-3188-3190-3192.
 

AMITBE

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AMITBE said:
For supports first, 3181-3877-3175-3173-3171-3169-3166-3163-3160-3157-3154.
3135-3142-3149 seems a strong line for now.

To the up for starters, is the line at 3184-3186-3188-3190-3192.
3135 has taken the fall well, the lowest being 3134.90
The Nifty would be in a good supports area, for today at least, should 3135 be threatened again.
The line is 3131-3127-3123-3119.

Back up at 3145 now, and comfort lies above 3145-3151-3153-3155-3159-3162.
 

AMITBE

Well-Known Member
AMITBE said:
3135 has taken the fall well, the lowest being 3134.90
The Nifty would be in a good supports area, for today at least, should 3135 be threatened again.
The line is 3131-3127-3123-3119.

Back up at 3145 now, and comfort lies above 3145-3151-3153-3155-3159-3162.
Some pretty serious profit booking on here, and expcted too where the not so new money discussed yesterday morning is playin safe and pulling out some.
The brighter side is the brand new money invested very recently. They may buy in again to keep in profit, possibly once the Varanasi issue cools a bit, if not later today.
3107 is coming up as a crucial support below which is not much.
To revise the comfort zone, 3126-3130-3134-3138 would be very good.
Above 3138 would be easier.
 
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