Looking at the record book, one finds that a crossover at a major round figure has never passed off peacefully. The pressure begins to mount closing in and passing it. At times the momentum has carried the Nifty well into the next hundred area, but has always had to look back soon enough.
We are looking at 3200 plus levels now.
Barring a couple of flat and slightly negative sessions, this would be the twelfth day of the climb.
While the law of averages may seem to be beginning to stack against the continuation of the climb, the important factor to note, besides the new money pouring in, is the upbeat market breadth that turned clearly positive yesterday. It hasnt been seen like this in a long time. Based on this single factor alone, the analysts have been expressing the jitters for the last two hundred points. That has got straightened out yesterday.
So where to from here.
Yes, there is a lot of new money invested in the system that would want to stretch its gains further.
But there is also a lot of not so new money in the system that would be looking to book out soon, with the Nifty hanging over the psychological mark of 3200.
The inevitability of testing supports lower down for strength, would be creating its own pressure, with the bears waiting in the wings at these levels. It wouldnt take a lot of doing for the jitters to resurface here.
So the likely scenario coming up sometime soon is increased volatility with sharp swings in either direction, whether today or the next few days.
Exhilaration may be given its due place, but with great caution.
The levels, the line at 3195-3199-3204-3207-3211 is the first to get above.
Then 3215-3219-3223-3227.
This entire area is difficult with a few triggers in there especially at 3204-3211 and 3215-3219.
Supports are 3186-3183-3178-3174-3170-3167-3164-3161-3158.
3146-3149-3152 is a base line.
