NIFTY FIFTY

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Hi everyone,

Since discussion elliot wave count was brought into this thread,with the permission of Amitbe, I would like to bring in two weekly log graph of sensex showing long term elliot wave counts.
According to me ,as Sanjoy said, we may see the ending 3rd wave of this bull market in the near term. When and where ... time will tell.
One of the long term tanget according to elliot wave theory was reached around 9500 and went past it without showing any resistance. So one more type of count which can be thought of is that the extension of third wave.Till 3164 (as I had posted before) in nifty was broken ,I strongly believed that there would be a long term 4th correction but with the ease with which it was broken, this possibility may also be thought of. I would welcome any comments and especially Amitbe's.

cheers,
gvnarendra.
 

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AMITBE

Well-Known Member
It was written Tuesday morning that wide swings in either direction were very much on the cards, but yesterday was something else. Yesterday saw anywhere between forty and fifty point up-down shifts in a rare volatile session.
A lot of what happened was anticipated in that post: http://www.traderji.com/35919-post925.html

Analysis, whether TA or otherwise stands no chance when the headless hosts of popular business channels begin to create hysteria and fear while flashing lethal sounding FII numbers. Then all hell breaks loose.
These dingbats should be trained better to deal with sensitive information that can cause thousands of crores of investor money to vanish into thin air within seconds. And vanish it did.
It wasnt Varanasi nor murky politicians, but these shrill lamebrains and their downright lack of professionalism that caused much of the damage.
Else, the markets were grinding along in an organic manner, coping with the bull-bear pressure at dizzy heights, bomb blasts, fear of correction and stretched valuations, stressed world markets etc etc. Nothing was amiss in that picture.
The a/d ratios were looking good lately, midcaps were joining in, beaten down sectors were waking up. There was no call for a voluminous crash like this.
Sure the market has its own mind, but this was utterly mindless.

Big money is always smart. There is no two ways about that. And its ruthlessly hardnosed too.
So whats the big deal with the huge FII numbers in the f&o.
When there is fierce competition amongst the big money, with huge amounts being invested in a market like ours, which does not have much of a depth in terms of value picks and variety, wouldnt it be a smart thing to do to buy huge insurance. If these guys hedged their long positions, they are just doing their job well. Especially when markets all over have been struggling lately.

Then there is this phrase that every media analyst parrots: liquidity driven rally.
Hey, has anyone ever seen a long sustained rally anywhere on earth without plentiful liquidity.
Smart money is smart because it has learnt to recalculate PE Ratios in the light of the visible growth factor of the companies and the country it is investing big money in.
This simple point is evading the vision of the not so smart analysts who cannot think out of the box, all the while saying yeah, so and so would look like a good buy but only after a correction of 10-12 percent.
But guess what, so and so just gained another 20 percent and still going.
I guess these chaps are under pressure to justify the money they get paid. Theyll cry wolf every time an index or scrip makes a nice move, create fear and uncertainty, cause a crash, then say I told you so.
Then when the index or scrip makes an abrupt u-turn and climbs back hard, its back to the sheepishly parroted phrase liquidity driven rally.
Ok!

Which leads us to the question if this is the end of the party, beginning of a multi-month correction, interim consolidation etc.
A one day sharp fall is not going to draw me into all that. While I really appreciate the keen interest in tracking the technicals, academic interest aside, wheres the need to panic if the Nifty rolls back another hundred points after all that it has gained.
March is well known to cause restraints on cash flow, and most emerging markets having run up hard to high levels are now spooking the analysts world over.

For all the reverence I hold towards WD Gann and Elliott counts, I dont take what happened yesterday as a technical issue.
If the Nifty had collapsed with its own weight, then we would have seen it coming clear enough. That the levels were too high is not reason enough. The momentum was clearly to the up from all counts and Tuesdays expected flat closing appeared more like a pause with some volatile up-down sideways move coming on to sort out the conflicts over a period of time.
We can look back after a few weeks or months and try and make sense of the price/time factors and wave counts, but as daily log-keepers of the market wed do well to be clear on what really happened yesterday.
On the other hand what happens over the next couple of days and early next week would be more a technical issue: After a severe fall it may be likely that the Nifty would thrash about to find some levels where to come to rest. It may continue to shed some more or flatten out for a bit or it may make a u-turn and climb back to safety earlier than expected.
Well know soon enough as the picture unfolds, but lets not panic.
And let's not short even if there is a gap down opening.

For supports, 3111-3107-3102-3097-3093/91-3087-3082-3077-3072-3067.
3063-3058-3053 look strong at this point.

For an upside, the vital line to take and hold is 3124-3128-3132-3135-3138-3144.
 

AMITBE

Well-Known Member
AMITBE said:
For supports, 3111-3107-3102-3097-3093/91-3087-3082-3077-3072-3067.
3063-3058-3053 look strong at this point.

For an upside, the vital line to take and hold is 3124-3128-3132-3135-3138-3144.
For breathing space and stablity at this point, the levels to hold above and consolidate are 3094-3097-3103-3106.
Making slow progress from there would be easier.
Also, the last two days when the session resumed after the break is the time a sharp retracement happened.
Today may be the exception in the other direction? :)
 
Amit,

Quite frankly, this has to go as one of your best posts. The business channels seem to have got a hold and to increase their TRP's have been commenting reather vaguely. Keywords such as "Liquidity driven", "expensive market","stiff valuations" have rather been very common when all-time highs are reached and the same analysts seem to rejoice otherwise.

Such comments rather can have an impact on the "domestic liquidity" would be my comment :) (Except for the market turnover was at some mark yesterday with 60K crore+, the A/D ratio as you mentioned indeed recovered).

Thanks,
Kool Prakash
 

AMITBE

Well-Known Member
koolprakash said:
Amit,

Quite frankly, this has to go as one of your best posts. The business channels seem to have got a hold and to increase their TRP's have been commenting reather vaguely. Keywords such as "Liquidity driven", "expensive market","stiff valuations" have rather been very common when all-time highs are reached and the same analysts seem to rejoice otherwise.

Such comments rather can have an impact on the "domestic liquidity" would be my comment :) (Except for the market turnover was at some mark yesterday with 60K crore+, the A/D ratio as you mentioned indeed recovered).

Thanks,
Kool Prakash
Thanks Kool...it's not a push over kind of market for sure.

Since 10.30 this morning 3113 has been thrice attempted and fallen back each time to form higher bottoms. A good sign.
Ahead of this level, 3115 and 3118 area is where there may be congestion. If the Nifty could get above here, it would certainly show strength.
 

AMITBE

Well-Known Member
AMITBE said:
...Since 10.30 this morning 3113 has been thrice attempted and fallen back each time to form higher bottoms. A good sign.
Ahead of this level, 3115 and 3118 area is where there may be congestion. If the Nifty could get above here, it would certainly show strength.
Climbed she did past 3118 with much show of strength, and kept going into the last minute.
Raising above two trigger levels from the morning post at 3124 and 3128 is better still.
 

sreperu

Active Member
Hello!

Hello everybody,
I'm sreenivas, a new joinee to this group. I'm interested technical analysis and shares, Commodities and derivatives. :cool:
 
AMITBE said:
It was written Tuesday morning that wide swings in either direction were very much on the cards, but yesterday was something else.

Analysis, whether TA or otherwise stands no chance when the headless hosts of popular business channels begin to create hysteria and fear while flashing lethal sounding FII numbers. Then all hell breaks loose.
These dingbats should be trained better to deal with sensitive information that can cause thousands of crores of investor money to vanish into thin air within seconds. And vanish it did.
..
Big money is always smart. There is no two ways about that. And its ruthlessly hardnosed too.
..
Hey, has anyone ever seen a long sustained rally anywhere on earth without plentiful liquidity.
...
This simple point is evading the vision of the not so smart analysts who cannot think out of the box, all the while saying yeah, so and so would look like a good buy but only after a correction of 10-12 percent.
But guess what, so and so just gained another 20 percent and still going.
I guess these chaps are under pressure to justify the money they get paid. Theyll cry wolf every time an index or scrip makes a nice move, create fear and uncertainty, cause a crash, then say I told you so.
...
Well know soon enough as the picture unfolds, but lets not panic.
And let's not short even if there is a gap down opening.

...
For an upside, the vital line to take and hold is 3124-3128-3132-3135-3138-3144.
Ditto with Kool. This post is the best one of yours Amit. Fantastic analysis and solid point made esp "I guess these chaps are under pressure to justify the money they get paid. ":D
How is your health now. I think you need good amount of rest. Do take care of yourself.

cheers,
nkpanjiyar
 

pkjha30

Well-Known Member
Hi Amit

Its amazing, how you have shredded to bits these Wise Guys on TV. I am watching them say same thing for last one and half year and market is kicking them in the butt, but they never seem to increase their grey matter.From 4500 the market has climbed relentlessly to 10700 i.e. an increase of 6200 and shows no sign of fatigue. As in one of the posts you mentioned that after every rise it takes a break of some 100 to 500 points which is good for the rally. Some where I learnt that one of the off beat analyast , not a guy from market, has predicted that it will rise to 10000 ( it reached well before his predicted time ) and then to 20000 in 2007. In such a situation TV gurus become meaningless and one has to really believe in the fundamental strength of the present econoic scenario to really invest and make money in the market. In fact unless something drastic happens Countries like India and China will be the growth bulwork of the world economy at least for next 10 to 20 years as both it have a lot of catching up to do. In between market will keep going up only. At least since the days of sensex at 100 it has given 100 times returns.

However If I am sounding too optimistic, let me sound a warning that though economy will grow but a lot of companies will go away , fade from the memory or simply refuse to budge from their existing position. Therefore while investing one must assess period of outlook for investing and sound companies to choose from. Every company will rise thus far and no further for the time being then one must use the staircase method to generate returns higher than the market.

I was just reading your posts from the beginning in another of your thread and really hats off:) :) to you that your picking are of highest quality and those who listened to you would have become multimillinoire by now if they invested with faith and money.

There is one more thing to say. Your perseverence is also amazing you are not feeling well and still take time to post a classic.
Dear Amit take very very good care of yourself. We need you more here in good health.


With Warm regards
Pankaj
 

karthikmarar

Well-Known Member
AMITBE said:
Climbed she did past 3118 with much show of strength, and kept going into the last minute.
Raising above two trigger levels from the morning post at 3124 and 3128 is better still.
Amit

She.. feminine Gender for the nifty? Is it because the Nifty is as unpredictable as women...:D

regards

Karthik
 
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