NIFTY FIFTY

[AMITBE]

The high round figures have not been taken easily in the past and the same is happening now at 3200 levels.
Whether this is an eccentricity of the numbers, or a quirk of the collective psyche, the truth is its this synchronous pattern that fuels technical analysis.
Its quite likely that leaving behind an important landmark entails much confidence building where nerves are strung tight.
The volatility in the markets and in the a/d ratios is a typical example of erratic behaviour where unwinding speculative positions in both directions go on intermittently.
More of this is likely to be witnessed going in today.
Lower levels may get tested, but decisive triggers should remain intact.
Thats pretty much it.

For a smoother ride, the line to command is 3204-3207-3210 to begin with.
Then 3214-3217-3219-3222.
3226-3230-3234-3238 appear distant, but are in the range theoretically.

Supports are 3200-3197-3194-3191-3188-3185-3182-3179-3176-3173.
3261-3157 seem strong.

 

[falumittir]

helo tradferji, i am a new member. need ur help on some thing.Should Reliance Natural resource be bought at the current level?

 

[AMITBE]

The fast slipping a/d ratios following positive openings have been dragging the markets the last few sessions. The Nifty has struggled to hold on to gains every time.
Yet the indication of underlying strength is visible from the higher lows being formed on each of these sessions.
The Nifty closed the last session with a last minute downwards pressure, yet the final close didnt look too bad on account of computing the closing price post closing. The fact that the close was only a little higher than the days low, comparatively, is not seen as a major concern. After all, the world markets were all under pressure with an off day coming along.
All in all, I see strength yet.

The following was written in the morning post on March 13:

Going into trade at the start of this week, the turning point theory is being put to test.
How 3192 and 3207 pan out would be vital.
Once these levels hold, and if 3222 and 3237 are taken, the Nifty may be on a faster track.
Whichever way it goes, this promises to be an eventful week, especially nearing Friday the 17th.

We may very likely see a bit of a twister of an unknown magnitude coming on sometime soon, whether this week or very early next. Today's close would be a clear indicator.
The direction is anybodys guess, but Im personally on the long side.
Whichever way it goes, itll likely be a significant move.

The levels on the long, the line at 3198-3202-3204-3208 needs firm taking first.
Then 3211-3214-3217-3220-3223.
Followed by 3226-3229-3232.

Supports are 3190-3187-3184-3181-3178-3175.
3159-3155-3151 appear strong base supports.

 

[AMITBE]

The levels on the long, the line at 3198-3202-3204-3208 needs firm taking first.
Then 3211-3214-3217-3220-3223.
Followed by 3226-3229-3232.

Supports are 3190-3187-3184-3181-3178-3175.
3159-3155-3151 appear strong base supports.

The Nifty waded into the last line mentioned above to the long side and got as high as 3230 to close at 3226 off.
As strong a close as was expected, and closing above the density levels being posted here for the past few sessions makes it look stronger still.

 

[AMITBE]

The quote in yesterday morning post points at two important levels for the Nifty to trade above if higher grounds are to be attempted: 3222 and 3237.
3222 finally yielded after several attempts recently, but holding it and holding 3237 are the real tests in immediate terms.
On the face of it, yesterdays close may indicate an easy crossover at 3237, but this is a long range resistance level and hence may not give in quite so easily. An intraday crossover is not enough, and even closing above this is by no means a guarantee that itll hold. Certain numbers have that kind of difficulty associated with them.
Furthermore, there have been several high gap openings lately that would demand filling. So somewhere along the line a long red bar may be expected.

As to the twister mentioned yesterday morning, after yesterdays half a twister we are half way there.
The other half is still a distinct possibility, depending on how 3237 and above is engaged.
Volatility may be expected at every high.

For the levels, the major line on the up is 3230-3233-3236-3239-3242-3245. More later if need be.

Supports are 3222-3219-3216-3214-3211-3208-3205-3201-3197-3194.
3185-3182 appear as strong base levels.

Again, the levels marked in red are strong in both directions.

 

[AMITBE]

As to the twister mentioned yesterday morning, after yesterdays half a twister we are half way there.
The other half is still a distinct possibility, depending on how 3237 and above is engaged.
Volatility may be expected at every high.

For the levels, the major line on the up is 3230-3233-3236-3239-3242-3245. More later if need be.

Supports are 3222-3219-3216-3214-3211-3208-3205-3201-3197-3194.
3185-3182 appear as strong base levels.

Again, the levels marked in red are strong in both directions.

Should the itch for the other half of the twister continue, some levels to command are 3249-3253-3257-3261.
While this is dense area, there are a couple of triggers in there too.
This is for now.

 

[AMITBE]

Should the itch for the other half of the twister continue, some levels to command are 3249-3253-3257-3261.
While this is dense area, there are a couple of triggers in there too.
This is for now.

Looking ahead to some possibilities, at this point a move above 3253 mentioned above may be enough to test 3261/63.
If so the line could be 3263-3266-3269-3272-3275.
Just possibilities, as mentioned.

 

[AMITBE]

Three facts that are going to have a strong say in the movement of the Nifty at this point:
One fact is that the lows have been higher yet on ok volume.
The second fact is that the closing levels have been only slightly higher than the days low a couple of times over the last few sessions, including Friday, despite testing much higher levels.
The other fact is the consistently washed-out a/d ratio.
While there is no call to panic and scream correction just yet, as the negative facts can get straightened out in a jiffy at any time, nevertheless these are the prime concerns going in this week.
If these facts dont get a relief soon, one can expect the long red bar mentioned Friday morning post. A few gaps still lie empty, left behind by some high gap openings recently.
One more important factor is the high overbought status of the Nifty on weekly and monthly charts. That certainly looks more menacing to me than the a/d ratios etc.
Take good care of stops and continue to book profits.

On the face of it, yesterdays close may indicate an easy crossover at 3237, but this is a long range resistance level and hence may not give in quite so easily. An intraday crossover is not enough, and even closing above this is by no means a guarantee that itll hold. Certain numbers have that kind of difficulty associated with them.
Furthermore, there have been several high gap openings lately that would demand filling. So somewhere along the line a long red bar may be expected.

The above taken from Friday morning post continues to be the main issue again going into the new week.
On Friday the intraday crossover at 3237 looked good but the failure to test 3261 mentioned in the second post then, opened up the Nifty. A test and play at 3261 would likely have mitigated the pressure on the Nifty very likely, as far as I can tell from my readings. This can of course be put aside as conjecture now as it didnt happen, yet this is still showing up in my data. A crossover at 3237 would not be complete without also testing 3261 plus and closing above 3252. These are scaling side-by side long range levels.

For supports the line is at 3231-3228-3225-3222-3219-3216-3213-3210.
The crucial line is at 3202-3198-3194.

To the up, 3237-3241/43-3246-3249-3251.
Then 3254-3257-3260-3263 for now.

 

[AMITBE]

For supports the line is at 3231-3228-3225-3222-3219-3216-3213-3210.
The crucial line is at 3202-3198-3194.

To the up, 3237-3241/43-3246-3249-3251.
Then 3254-3257-3260-3263 for now.

Though the a/d line is shrinking again should the climb continue past 3263, the line above is 3266-3269-3272-3275.
Just to round off this post looking ahead, if all the above are done, 3279 and 3282 may also be attempted.
These are all possibilities.

 

[AMITBE]

The oncoming twister was mentioned on the morning when the Nifty was at 3195.
Well, the tightening a/d ratios since then took a tad bit of tang out of the tareaway twister I had expected, but at 3265 close last night, the twister has tottered along on time alright.
Its taken three sessions to cover 70 points to get here with some more to come, and frankly I had expected at the most two.

The two negative facts mentioned yesterday, the malady of closing near the days low and compressing a/d ratio, got well addressed:
Yesterdays open was also the days low, and the close was a couple of dots below the days high.
The a/d line didnt quite open its jaws in the ominous way its been doing by mid session lately. While it shrank, it didnt quite go the opposite way, and remained pretty much even in the end. A certain improvement.

The crossover at 3237 and also 3252 (see yesterday morning post) on a strong note yesterday, brings a few more levels as potential targets for this move in the near term:
Above 3267, these are 3282 and 3297 first.
Will leave it here to see how these pan out for now, but if the a/d ratio which showed better form yesterday gets better, these are quite attainable.
This would of course be subject to 3222 and 3237 holding out.

To the long first, the line is at 3270-3273-3276-3279-3282.
Above 3282 there appears to be congestion for the day, where the line is 3286-3290-3294-3298 for starters. More later if need be.

Support line is at 3261-3258-3254-3250-3246.
3238-3235-3532 seem to form base support.