Nifty Futures Positional Trading

[jamit_05]

5567 on Nifty future could be that level.. not sure on a cover rally to that extent until Raghuraman gives a rate cut the day he takes office...
This is where you can really play options.. it has inbuilt stop loss.. with the same margin amount you can take a OTM call and if you are sure of the rally, the premium is your stop loss.. simple trade.. say for eg 5800 CE.. 30 rs is the built in stop loss

I don't know why Subbu had to be canned. Did his tenure get over? Else I think the center has put up a new face and get dovish temporarily to assuage the bearish sentiments of FIIs.

It is in best favour for the Gov to have FII stay put and keep the Index well within bounds till the election gets over.

One wouldn't be surprised to see some dovish policies from RBI coming out... probably a rate cut. This will support the Index.

 

[jamit_05]

Took another 1R hit in the first 15 mins of trading. No more trading for today.

A total loss of 1.5R before getting the longs. I am mentally prepared (after much "exercise") to bear losses till 7R.

 

[jamit_05]

This is where you can really play options.. it has inbuilt stop loss.. with the same margin amount you can take a OTM call and if you are sure of the rally, the premium is your stop loss.. simple trade.. say for eg 5800 CE.. 30 rs is the built in stop loss

Sure, you can use the option price as a stop loss. And am sure one could come up with a complete strategy around it.

But, that strategy's strength would be low-DD, while it sacrifices significant returns.

For ex. In my strategy, If I keep a SL of 50 points, then on a 200 point move I make 4R. And if this SL is only 20 points, I make 10R. Backtesting shows that with a 20 point SL I do not expect to see 6 additional SL hit everytime. So 20 point SL is better. (But a 5 point SL would be tedious and high on expense due to too many trades)

Similarly, for Rs.30 premium as SL it will cover about a 100 NF points. That is a very wide SL. It probably won't give a return or 2R taking into account the time decay. So essentially, the result of 20 trades will be luke warm.

In conclusion, my interest will be where I get a better value for the risk I take and the hours I put in.

PS: Sorry for harping on and on... it kinda further clears things in my head too.

 

[jamit_05]

Back to the "Future"

Back to the "Future"​

What lies ahead for us in trading NF.

Quite clearly NF will see the upside. It is only the beginning of the August Series with only the first week gone.

Positives for Nifty on the Information side:

1. New RBI Guv is projected as less strict. Dovish. This should encourage FIIs.
2. PCR is near all time lows around 0.91; Nifty usually goes up after this.
3. Most importantly, US markets are scaling new highs. Means, the investor mood is bullish... all India has to do is come-up with some FII favourable policies, convince them and boom... Bulls are back!


Positives on the Chart Side:

1. Nifty is now in a region which is probably most heavily traded in the last few years. This should act as a support. See the following image.

2. This week's carnage registered an important event... it broke a Major Weekly Pivot. However, if this break is negated/reversed then it will act as a very bullish Boost. In which case I expect to see Nifty back to 6100 before September.

I do not have any positions as of now. Pretty sure that the next week to come will give long entries. System is in place. Will follow it.

 

[jamit_05]

SGX is trading up... looks like longs will be hit early on in the day (and week). Since, there was plenty of bearish momentum in last two weeks, I do not expect price to make a U-turn. So, some whipsaws expected along the week.

Long at NF 5621 SL 26 points.

 

[jamit_05]

NF premium is down from 44 in last week, to 15 !

One interpretation is that longs from July have been squared off. Now, the market makers may find it convenient to take the market up.

Or the downtrend continues.

 

[Taiki]

NF premium is down from 44 in last week, to 15 !

One interpretation is that longs from July have been squared off. Now, the market makers may find it convenient to take the market up.

Or the downtrend continues.

Hi Jamit brother,

Are you carrying any positional trade in nifty now as per your positional strategy ??

Regards
Taiki

 

[jamit_05]

Hi Jamit brother,

Are you carrying any positional trade in nifty now as per your positional strategy ??

Regards
Taiki

None... but in a few minutes will take up longs... precisely at 23.15 NF (above HOD)

 

[jamit_05]

Dang It!!

Can you believe this... I am waiting at 23.15 order punched in and all... and it didn't give me a fill !! And is threatening to take off !!!!! Christ !!

But, I won't give it slippage... not one paisa more... take it or leave it.

 

[Taiki]

Dang It!!

Can you believe this... I am waiting at 23.15 order punched in and all... and it didn't give me a fill !! And is threatening to take off !!!!! Christ !!

But, I won't give it slippage... not one paisa more... take it or leave it.

It was a long also above 5622 (FUT) in my system, though it is not for positional, and I am trading it intraday. My order got filled, but NF could not sustained above 5630, and my trade resulted in a scratch trade +5 point gain.

But what is 23.15 ??

Regards
Taiki