Nifty Futures Positional Trading

[jamit_05]

But what is 23.15 ??
5623.15

Yes, the market isn't holding. Have punched in the SL too.

 

[jamit_05]

I hv made a rough calculation for several entry systems including the one I am currently using... and one fact is apparent: The Strike Rate is poor... often less than 50%. Which essentially means... I don't have any idea about where the market will go until it clearly does

 

[jamit_05]

But what is 23.15 ??
5623.15

Yes, the market isn't holding. Have punched in the SL too.

Till market closes convincingly over 5720, this entry is not safe... in fact could be taken out with a sharp down gap... scary!!

 

[jamit_05]

Close of day is coming very near entry.... this puts me in a serious risk of a gap down open with loss exceeding my plan...

 

[Taiki]

I hv made a rough calculation for several entry systems including the one I am currently using... and one fact is apparent: The Strike Rate is poor... often less than 50%. Which essentially means... I don't have any idea about where the market will go until it clearly does

I guess almost all system falls in this category, In a market where we are trading the shadow, i think it is better to let market decides where it wants to go and lets just follow it. For me keeping a directional bias often resulted in loosing trades.

Regards
Taiki

 

[Taiki]

Till market closes convincingly over 5720, this entry is not safe... in fact could be taken out with a sharp down gap... scary!!

Close of day is coming very near entry.... this puts me in a serious risk of a gap down open with loss exceeding my plan...

Hello Jamit brother,

Are you using the option chain analysis that you were discussing in Option Trader's thread for your positional trades ??

How about buying few puts for hedging/minimizing loss (incase market is opening gap down tomorrow). Want to hear more on this from you.

Regards
Taiki

 

[jamit_05]

Hello Jamit brother,

Are you using the option chain analysis that you were discussing in Option Trader's thread for your positional trades ??

How about buying few puts for hedging/minimizing loss (incase market is opening gap down tomorrow). Want to hear more on this from you.

Regards
Taiki

Yeah, buying puts is a good way. But, I do not want to add to the complication. Want to keep it very simple. If it gaps down tomorrow... I will be slaughtered... am preparing for that.

No I am not using Option Chain, but refer to it for exits... this process is refining.

 

[jamit_05]

@Taiki

Whenever there is an issue, a problem... we instinctively jump to tackle it with our intellect. This may or may not solve the problem, but surely makes the system less viable.

Instead, I am training myself to think differently. I want to make sure that the pros and cons of the event are equal on both sides. For ex... in this current case.. if there is a risk of gap down.. then I also have the chance of a gap up.

There is an issue of increased risk. But it is not a account shattering threat so i am better-off bearing this one-time pain than adding one line of rule in the entry system.

Issue of increased risk arises in unreasonably increasing position size. That would be a mistake on the part of the trader. However, our current gap-situation is part of the game something which I cannot control or make amends for without complicating the trading procedure.

So no modification is made.

 

[Taiki]

@Taiki

Whenever there is an issue, a problem... we instinctively jump to tackle it with our intellect. This may or may not solve the problem, but surely makes the system less viable.

Instead, I am training myself to think differently. I want to make sure that the pros and cons of the event are equal on both sides. For ex... in this current case.. if there is a risk of gap down.. then I also have the chance of a gap up.

There is an issue of increased risk. But it is not a account shattering threat so i am better-off bearing this one-time pain than adding one line of rule in the entry system.

Issue of increased risk arises in unreasonably increasing position size. That would be a mistake on the part of the trader. However, our current gap-situation is part of the game something which I cannot control or make amends for without complicating the trading procedure.

So no modification is made.

Okay, Can you please mention about your SL for current long trade, and Do you consider moving SL to breakeven after considerable profit is earned. Like today NF made the high of 5660 after filling your order. How do you deal with such situations ??

Regards
Taiki

 

[jamit_05]

Okay, Can you please mention about your SL for current long trade, and Do you consider moving SL to breakeven after considerable profit is earned. Like today NF made the high of 5660 after filling your order. How do you deal with such situations ??

Regards
Taiki

SL is 26 points flat and is punched in at all times.

No, I have not planned to bring the SL to breakeven. It does not give any positive edge. However, I do seek daily bars and small pivots to raise TSL/ SAR to. One good thing about positional is that it removes all that intraday noise.