Nifty Futures Positional Trading

[jamit_05]

I too feel the same way as Option.Trader. FIIs are holding to their puts. Now the squared off positions in futures might have given the FIIs enough money to short Nifty again.
But anything can happen in market. Let us see

Thats my point. Why would they "short Nifty again"... why not just roll over? Well, there could be several reasons.... and one of them could be that they are not interested in short at these levels.

 

[Option.Trader]

Thats my point. Why would they "short Nifty again"... why not just roll over? Well, there could be several reasons.... and one of them could be that they are not interested in short at these levels.

The net between the entire August puts and today's contacts show that about 140k contracts are still open. That means they have entered into fresh September put longs during the week. The coming week will show if they unwind or add to it

 

[jamit_05]

Again, the market is up VIX is down 4%. This is not good and definitely not a sign of a good uptrend.

 

[Option.Trader]

Again, the market is up VIX is down 4%. This is not good and definitely not a sign of a good uptrend.

I thought Vix coming down is a good sign of buying... ??

 

[chemmanian]

FIIs were able to square off maximum shorts by only around 100 points of short covering. If they short the same quantity again they may take Nifty 500 points down. Thats why I feel that they squared off shorts smartly, now they will create positions in options and then may short NIfty again to bring it down. Just my understanding!!

 

[jamit_05]

The candle on 28th was a decisive candle, but the system didn't catch it because it is unconventional. Was expecting a black bar, but it was white.

I find myself biased hence do not like to change the system on the fly... don't like to take trades for which I have no backtesting record. This kind of a bar is not frequent hence do not want to act on it.

But, if I were a more experienced trader, I would take the early long signal.

 

[Option.Trader]

The net between the entire August puts and today's contacts show that about 140k contracts are still open. That means they have entered into fresh September put longs during the week. The coming week will show if they unwind or add to it

Jamit, i think FII's are adding to their puts whenever market goes higher... yesterdays trade indicated another round of put buying... i think we are all set for another roller coaster ride..on the downside

 

[Option.Trader]

The candle on 28th was a decisive candle, but the system didn't catch it because it is unconventional. Was expecting a black bar, but it was white.

I find myself biased hence do not like to change the system on the fly... don't like to take trades for which I have no backtesting record. This kind of a bar is not frequent hence do not want to act on it.

But, if I were a more experienced trader, I would take the early long signal.

Could you explain this a bit? what was unconventional of it?

 

[jamit_05]

Jamit, i think FII's are adding to their puts whenever market goes higher... yesterdays trade indicated another round of put buying... i think we are all set for another roller coaster ride..on the downside

How I hope you are right. I am waiting to purchase a host of stocks when market reaches 4550.

Banks will report lower earnings in the next two quarters atleast, due to lesser liquidity.

Cap Goods have all started to show sharp drops. Bhel showed 67% lower sales revenue in the 1stQFY14!

Power, Infra, Oil and Gas will suffer for several quarters due to currency surprise. IT is gaining for the same reason but does not come near offsetting the losses.

Only FMCG and Pharma cannot support the entire index!

It will all come down. PEs will be re-reated...I agree... but when is the question.

FII OI in Index Futures are down to the zero line. They could all turn bears in the fresh series too, its a possibility. Will soon know.

Could you explain this a bit? what was unconventional of it?

The system takes breakout-failure as an entry signal. But, for that there must be a daily close across the pivot low in a strong manner. This is how breakouts usually happens. In the case of 28th there was the strength shown by there was no daily close across the pivot... the reversal happened intraday... hence the signal was skipped!

My loss, somebody else's gain.

 

[jamit_05]

Long Entry 5568.30 SL 5515.50
Short Enty 5320.60 SL 5373.40
SL is 55 points in size.

Earlier SL used to be near 25 points... now its more than double! A strong indication of bearish sentiment.