Nifty Futures Positional Trading

[jamit_05]

Now, for a month or two Nifty will go sideways.

The next series looks choppy. It will be without trend hence frustrating the trend traders who have made a bundle in the last few months.

Their position sizes will have increased, if not multiplied, due to the encouragement they got from the success of their trend trading systems. They must be in the 7th heaven! This over-confidence will make them trade bigger. It will be test of whether they can "hold onto their money".

The weekly chart has posted two major supportive candles. Hence, I feel touching 5800 should a two days work, given the expanded ATR.

 

[timepass]

Now, for a month or two Nifty will go sideways.

The next series looks choppy. It will be without trend hence frustrating the trend traders who have made a bundle in the last few months.

Their position sizes will have increased, if not multiplied, due to the encouragement they got from the success of their trend trading systems. They must be in the 7th heaven! This over-confidence will make them trade bigger. It will be test of whether they can "hold onto their money".

The weekly chart has posted two major supportive candles. Hence, I feel touching 5800 should a two days work, given the expanded ATR.

Doesn't it look like H&S breakdown ?? The price may test the neckline, but appears to be poised to go down.

 

[jamit_05]

Doesn't it look like H&S breakdown ?? The price may test the neckline, but appears to be poised to go down.

It looks more like a channel. With the triple bottom formation in progress. It could very well touch the topside....

 

[jamit_05]

I have a solution to make-up for the long entry that I have missed:

Let me go ahead and buy 5700 CE @ 45;
SL is as per the trading system at Spot 5304.50; which is around 100 points away from CMP.

This give me an RR of 1:6 not bad for a cover-up.

 

[jamit_05]

Daily Trend is still

DOWN


Intraday trend is

UP


Note: However, Daily trend is all set to change to Up if the day closes over 5530 SPOT.

 

[jamit_05]

Udayan is calling it a pullback which won't sustain. (And would the chic just stop talking!)

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/ud...smart-bear-market-pullback-udayan_943538.html

 

[jamit_05]

Nifty Daily trend changed to:

UP

Intraday trend is

UP

But this daily uptrend is not reliable at all, since BnF is still well away from Daily Pivot high. And we know too well that Nf does not go too far away without BnF due to the weightage it has.

Hence, am all set to short below 5471.80 SL of 42 points.

 

[jamit_05]

Fii's position in NF

See how FIIs have contributed to yesterdays daily-pivot break.

FIIs were net short, although by a small number. Means, they are not in favour of this break.

Moreover, this may be break on NF chart, but in their chart it is not a break.

The following chart plots FII's daily average trading price.

Hence, I will be glad to see downside from here on.

 

[Option.Trader]

Re: Fii's position in NF

See how FIIs have contributed to yesterdays daily-pivot break.

FIIs were net short, although by a small number. Means, they are not in favour of this break.

Moreover, this may be break on NF chart, but in their chart it is not a break.

The following chart plots FII's daily average trading price.

Hence, I will be glad to see downside from here on.

Didn't make sense, they went hammer and tong with call buying yesterday. The futures was a very small number. Either they are as confused as us or they are playing a larger game

 

[jamit_05]

Re: Fii's position in NF

Didn't make sense, they went hammer and tong with call buying yesterday. The futures was a very small number. Either they are as confused as us or they are playing a larger game

1) I have been seeing Max COI on OTM Puts for several days now. Even today Today max ChgOI in PE is on 4800!

2) I think they are all waiting for FOMC meet.

But, surely they are undecided and only booking profits which will cause an unsustainable rally.