Nifty Futures Trading Part 2 (Positional)

[coolboy007]

not a joke sir...

but nov its unimaginable...

Rising till 3600 isnt a joke but rising till nov exp is a joke
Dont get me wrong.

 

[pkamalesh]

ya & I am looking for the 161% retracement come Alex gimme 3600

Czar sir i think u and alex go on leave plzzzzzzz......i would die if nifty reaches these levls...plzzzzzzz change ur modems..every one...is one day relief no enough???i think the bears are enjoying their week end..isiliye bulls ko thoda chance mila..nothing more...dont panic guys...If we see 3600 or even above 2800 ours would be declared as the best markets in the world...heheeh

 

[Czar]

looks like Sachins, Rahuls, Saurav & Kumble's work is done here, now the juniors take over & seniors retire

ya we are

 

[pkamalesh]

okay...every one talking abt expiry,3600 and stuff...dont forget our line baba(junior line baba)..

Nov strong support at 2325 which we have not yet tested yet...and on monday we ned to decicively cross and close above 2790 to forget the bears for some time...if it is done then we might get a sharp pull back upto 32o0 levels...Now keep in mind all world markets have nearly touched the oct lows...so nifty might just try that(I would love that..)

 

[rishig38]

BTW, where is Satda? we need his charts/posts...even Sunil is missing...what is going on? Can some one post the link to Satda's chart where he pointed Nifty at 1366, and Dow also at a very low level...anyone?

And, one more question to ask is what effect will the expiry have?

Oh did I mention that another US Bank failed..too bad that they reported this after market hours, otherwise this last hour rally in Dow would have fizzled....

http://www.re uters. com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE4AL0LV20081122?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

 

[arsenal_7]

Arsenal, S&P closed below 800 yesterday and even today it is at 754.42. If it did break the neckline as you say, then what is holding it so far? why not capitulate now? And what makes you think it will sink in 1-2 days. Looking forward to your insight.

Thanks!

Rishi/Coolboy,

S&P 500 at neckline of 2002

Closing low = 776.76
Intraday low = 768.63
Weekly low = 800.58

20-11-2008
Inraday low = 747.78
Close = 752.44

21-11-2008
Intraday low= 741.02
Close = 800.03

S&P500 has closed below the daily closing low at neckline once (last thursday).

weekly closing below neckline has occured once, this week is 800.03(just half a point below 800.58).

Two consecutive daily closing below 776.76 and two weekly closing below 800.58 should confirm the breakout of neckline(breakdown). (As this is a very strong formation, daily and weekly confirmation or even monthly confirmation may be required).

Next week turns out to be critical for S&P 500's survival. Some of the technical analyst are smelling breakout at neckline(breakdown), waiting for confrimation as it is strong support zone . It may take few days, weeks to months for breakdown.

Nifty
Nifty formed "Double Top" starting of this month and broke neckline at 2860. Two day closing below neckline confirmed the breakdown to reach target of 2500.

Double Top
After achieving the breakdown target, nifty will bounce back to the neckline (face resistance) and follow or resume the downtrend.
Since the formation was just 8-10 days old, targets and bounce(s) may just be touch and go. The resumtion of downward trend may be strong to go below 2252.

We are at the last stage in first wave of correction or bear market.
The first wave will end close to 2100-2000 and here begins the "bear market rally" lasting upto 6-8 months with nifty reaching 3800-4000. (with one intermediate correction during the rally.)

Recent double top formation of nifty was a good match with its theory.
II , Major players, fund houses and popular technical analyst appearing on tv locked into this trade on 12-Nov-2008 at around 14:00 -14:30 hrs IST.

Regards

 

[rishig38]

Arsenal, you mean to say that if S&P for two consecutive days closes below 776.76, then we should see some significant and swift down move in S&P before a rally as it would confirm the break? BTW, when you use the term breakout, you really mean breakdown, right?

And the same for Nifty Futures, that it should try to test the double top formation around 2860, and then it would close below the Oct lows in a hurry and then a huge rally would start that might/could/would/should possibly take Nifty to 3800-4000 levels?

 

[arsenal_7]

Bears are in for a surprise for Monday
Dow up 493 up 6.54%. Thats too good global cues. I guess europe will open higher on monday as they fell and closed in red because of Dow and now DOw closed so high.
I was long , lets see , many times Dow cues have been ignored by Asia.

It was 'Geithner Rally' , post news the same guys may sell-off again.

On thursday dow was down -444 and firday up by +494 , net of about +50 points. Based on Dow & Nifty correlation , we should have been up by about 12-15 points on friday, but we blasted off,...... much of our short covering may be over, longs may get trapped on the wrong side.

 

[arsenal_7]

Arsenal, you mean to say that if S&P for two consecutive days closes below 776.76, then we should see some significant and swift down move in S&P before a rally as it would confirm the break? BTW, when you use the term breakout, you really mean breakdown, right?

And the same for Nifty Futures, that it should try to test the double top formation around 2860, and then it would close below the Oct lows in a hurry and then a huge rally would start that might/could/would/should possibly take Nifty to 3800-4000 levels?

S&P 500 for two consecutive days below 776.76 + two consecutive weeks below 800.58 = strong possiblity of one swift wide range day towards low closing .... heading towards 600-400.

Yes, Breakout of neckline = breakdown.

S&P might tease the neckline for sometime, since its such a huge formation. Most of them might be closely looking for confirmation of breakdown and some may not have realised the neckline.

Ideally, Nifty should come on intraday basis close to 2860, but a weak double top formation and in downtrend it may fall short of testing the neckline. Once the bounce from 2500 is over, downtrend will resume and may take few weeks to months to form new low around 2000-2252. Reversal from the new low will mark the true beginning of bear market rally , which most of them are eagerly awaiting. 2009 is a rally year.

 

[rishig38]

S&P 500 for two days below 776.76 + two weeks below 800.58 = strong possiblity of one swift wide range day towards low closing .... heading towards 600-400.

Yes, Breakout of neckline = breakdown.

S&P might tease the neckline for sometime, since its such a huge formation. Most of them might be closely looking for confirmation of breakdown and some may not have realised the neckline.

Ideally, Nifty should come on intraday basis close to 2860, but a weak double top formation and in downtrend it may fall short of testing the neckline. Once the bounce from 2500 is over, downtrend will resume and may take few weeks to months to form new low around 2000-2252. Reversal from the new low will mark the true beginning of bear market rally , which most of them are eagerly awaiting. 2009 is a rally year.

Reading your post, I get the impression that we might not form new lows in 2009 at all...any reason behind that?

And, what makes you think 2000 will be the absolute bottom of this first wave of correction? Any particular reason behind it? Why can't it be 1800 or 1400 as most of us want to see happening?