Nifty Futures Trading Part 2 (Positional)
- Thread starter Czar
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Ok but to know which OI of call or put is going up should i hav to note OI in the morn of all options
or there is any simple way
or there is any simple way
C
I have been yakking about the fact that usually the bottom is hit in bear market in a year approx & thus was expecting a bottom around Jan end Feb 2009...
Well to get to the point, This sector started the bear market before the actual bear market hit in full force & coincides with bear market in USA, etc... i.e. in Oct 2007... so An eye to be kept keenly on Acc (which I have observed to be the operators fav stock & signals much b4 the actual market...)
Well to get to the point, This sector started the bear market before the actual bear market hit in full force & coincides with bear market in USA, etc... i.e. in Oct 2007... so An eye to be kept keenly on Acc (which I have observed to be the operators fav stock & signals much b4 the actual market...)
Plzzz go through this report from bloomberg......indicates some negative news flow from nov 25...
Recession Probably Deepened in October: U.S. Economy Preview
By Shobhana Chandra
Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. recession probably deepened as consumer spending plunged in October by the most since the 2001 downturn and businesses slashed investment, government reports may show this week.
Purchases declined 1 percent after a 0.3 percent drop the prior month, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of Commerce Department figures due Nov. 26. Commerce may also report the same day that orders for long-lasting goods fell for the second time in three months.
The credit crisis has forced cash-strapped consumers to pull back on purchases and companies to cut spending and step up firings. Housing and manufacturing also are deteriorating, a sign the economy is sinking further into what may be the most severe slump in decades.
``The economic indicators are all in the same vein, pointing to a deepening recession,'' said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. ``Everything is contracting. The economy will stay in a recession for at least six months.''
The Commerce Department's spending report may also show that incomes rose 0.1 percent in October, the smallest gain in three months, according to the Bloomberg survey.
The projected decline in spending, which accounts for two- thirds of the economy, foreshadows a holiday season that may be the worst in six years, according to industry projections. A record two-decade expansion in consumer spending ended in the third quarter, causing the economy to contract.
Prices
Inflation figures in Commerce's spending report may show price pressures have waned, giving way to the risk of deflation, or a prolonged slide in prices. The Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, was unchanged in October after rising 0.2 percent in September.
Orders for durable goods, products meant to last several years, likely fell 3 percent in October following a 0.9 percent increase the prior month, economists in the Bloomberg survey predicted. Excluding transportation equipment, orders probably fell 1.5 percent, the Nov. 26 report may show.
Automakers are aggravating the slump in durables. Sales of cars and light trucks last month were the worst since February 1983, according to industry figures from Autodata Corp.
The economy already was on a much weaker footing in the third quarter, revised figures from Commerce may show on Nov. 25. Gross domestic product likely shrank at a 0.5 percent annual rate from July to September, more than the advance estimate of a 0.3 percent contraction and the biggest slump since the 2001 recession, according to the survey median.
Housing Downturn
The housing downturn will probably extend into a fourth year as buyers find it difficult to get mortgage loans. S&P/Case-Shiller may report on Nov. 25 that an index of home prices in 20 U.S. cities slumped in September at the fastest pace on record, the survey median shows.
New-home sales, due from Commerce on Nov. 26, plunged in October to the lowest level in 17 years, according to the median forecast in the Bloomberg survey. Two days earlier, the National Association of Realtors may report that home resales dropped last month by the most since September 2007.
In other figures, the Institute for Supply Management- Chicago may report business activity in November stayed near the lowest level since the 2001 recession, and Reuters/University of Michigan may report consumer confidence this month held near a 28-year low, according to economists' median forecasts.
AnnTaylor Stores Corp., the U.S. women's retailer known for its suits, on Nov. 21 said it won't give a profit forecast for the fourth quarter or full year because of the ``volatility and uncertainty'' about the economy heading into the holidays.
Bloomberg Survey
================================================================
Release Period Prior Median
Indicator Date Value Forecast
================================================================
Exist Homes Mlns 11/24 Oct. 5.18 5.00
Exist Homes MOM% 11/24 Oct. 5.5% -3.5%
GDP Annual QOQ% 11/25 4Q P -0.3% -0.5%
Personal Consump. QOQ% 11/25 4Q P -3.1% -3.1%
GDP Prices QOQ% 11/25 4Q P 4.2% 4.2%
Core PCE Prices QOQ% 11/25 4Q P 2.9% 2.9%
Case Shiller Monthly YO 11/25 Sept. -16.6% -16.9%
Case Shiller Monthly In 11/25 Sept. 164.6 163.0
Case Shiller Quarterly 11/25 3Q 155.3 151.5
Case Shiller Quarterly 11/25 3Q -15.4% -17.1%
OFHEO HPI QOQ% 11/25 3Q -1.4% -1.5%
OFHEO HPI MOM% 11/25 Sept. -0.6% -0.7%
Consumer Conf Index 11/25 Nov. 38.0 38.0
Richmond Fed Index 11/25 Nov. -26 -26
ABC Conf Index 11/25 Nov. 24 -52 -53
Durables Orders MOM% 11/26 Oct. 0.9% -3.0%
Durables Ex-Trans MOM% 11/26 Oct. -1.0% -1.5%
Pers Inc MOM% 11/26 Oct. 0.2% 0.1%
Pers Spend MOM% 11/26 Oct. -0.3% -1.0%
PCE Deflator YOY% 11/26 Oct. 4.2% 3.3%
Core PCE Prices MOM% 11/26 Oct. 0.2% 0.0%
Core PCE Prices YOY% 11/26 Oct. 2.4% 2.2%
Initial Claims ,000's 11/26 Nov. 22 542 531
Cont. Claims ,000's 11/26 Nov. 15 4012 4075
Chicago PM Index 11/26 Nov. 37.8 37.0
U of Mich Conf. Index 11/26 Nov. F 57.9 57.5
New Home Sales ,000's 11/26 Oct. 464 442
New Home Sales MOM% 11/26 Oct. 2.7% -4.7%
================================================================
Recession Probably Deepened in October: U.S. Economy Preview
By Shobhana Chandra
Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. recession probably deepened as consumer spending plunged in October by the most since the 2001 downturn and businesses slashed investment, government reports may show this week.
Purchases declined 1 percent after a 0.3 percent drop the prior month, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of Commerce Department figures due Nov. 26. Commerce may also report the same day that orders for long-lasting goods fell for the second time in three months.
The credit crisis has forced cash-strapped consumers to pull back on purchases and companies to cut spending and step up firings. Housing and manufacturing also are deteriorating, a sign the economy is sinking further into what may be the most severe slump in decades.
``The economic indicators are all in the same vein, pointing to a deepening recession,'' said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. ``Everything is contracting. The economy will stay in a recession for at least six months.''
The Commerce Department's spending report may also show that incomes rose 0.1 percent in October, the smallest gain in three months, according to the Bloomberg survey.
The projected decline in spending, which accounts for two- thirds of the economy, foreshadows a holiday season that may be the worst in six years, according to industry projections. A record two-decade expansion in consumer spending ended in the third quarter, causing the economy to contract.
Prices
Inflation figures in Commerce's spending report may show price pressures have waned, giving way to the risk of deflation, or a prolonged slide in prices. The Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, was unchanged in October after rising 0.2 percent in September.
Orders for durable goods, products meant to last several years, likely fell 3 percent in October following a 0.9 percent increase the prior month, economists in the Bloomberg survey predicted. Excluding transportation equipment, orders probably fell 1.5 percent, the Nov. 26 report may show.
Automakers are aggravating the slump in durables. Sales of cars and light trucks last month were the worst since February 1983, according to industry figures from Autodata Corp.
The economy already was on a much weaker footing in the third quarter, revised figures from Commerce may show on Nov. 25. Gross domestic product likely shrank at a 0.5 percent annual rate from July to September, more than the advance estimate of a 0.3 percent contraction and the biggest slump since the 2001 recession, according to the survey median.
Housing Downturn
The housing downturn will probably extend into a fourth year as buyers find it difficult to get mortgage loans. S&P/Case-Shiller may report on Nov. 25 that an index of home prices in 20 U.S. cities slumped in September at the fastest pace on record, the survey median shows.
New-home sales, due from Commerce on Nov. 26, plunged in October to the lowest level in 17 years, according to the median forecast in the Bloomberg survey. Two days earlier, the National Association of Realtors may report that home resales dropped last month by the most since September 2007.
In other figures, the Institute for Supply Management- Chicago may report business activity in November stayed near the lowest level since the 2001 recession, and Reuters/University of Michigan may report consumer confidence this month held near a 28-year low, according to economists' median forecasts.
AnnTaylor Stores Corp., the U.S. women's retailer known for its suits, on Nov. 21 said it won't give a profit forecast for the fourth quarter or full year because of the ``volatility and uncertainty'' about the economy heading into the holidays.
Bloomberg Survey
================================================================
Release Period Prior Median
Indicator Date Value Forecast
================================================================
Exist Homes Mlns 11/24 Oct. 5.18 5.00
Exist Homes MOM% 11/24 Oct. 5.5% -3.5%
GDP Annual QOQ% 11/25 4Q P -0.3% -0.5%
Personal Consump. QOQ% 11/25 4Q P -3.1% -3.1%
GDP Prices QOQ% 11/25 4Q P 4.2% 4.2%
Core PCE Prices QOQ% 11/25 4Q P 2.9% 2.9%
Case Shiller Monthly YO 11/25 Sept. -16.6% -16.9%
Case Shiller Monthly In 11/25 Sept. 164.6 163.0
Case Shiller Quarterly 11/25 3Q 155.3 151.5
Case Shiller Quarterly 11/25 3Q -15.4% -17.1%
OFHEO HPI QOQ% 11/25 3Q -1.4% -1.5%
OFHEO HPI MOM% 11/25 Sept. -0.6% -0.7%
Consumer Conf Index 11/25 Nov. 38.0 38.0
Richmond Fed Index 11/25 Nov. -26 -26
ABC Conf Index 11/25 Nov. 24 -52 -53
Durables Orders MOM% 11/26 Oct. 0.9% -3.0%
Durables Ex-Trans MOM% 11/26 Oct. -1.0% -1.5%
Pers Inc MOM% 11/26 Oct. 0.2% 0.1%
Pers Spend MOM% 11/26 Oct. -0.3% -1.0%
PCE Deflator YOY% 11/26 Oct. 4.2% 3.3%
Core PCE Prices MOM% 11/26 Oct. 0.2% 0.0%
Core PCE Prices YOY% 11/26 Oct. 2.4% 2.2%
Initial Claims ,000's 11/26 Nov. 22 542 531
Cont. Claims ,000's 11/26 Nov. 15 4012 4075
Chicago PM Index 11/26 Nov. 37.8 37.0
U of Mich Conf. Index 11/26 Nov. F 57.9 57.5
New Home Sales ,000's 11/26 Oct. 464 442
New Home Sales MOM% 11/26 Oct. 2.7% -4.7%
================================================================
Last edited:
Ok but to know which OI of call or put is going up should i hav to note OI in the morn of all options
or there is any simple way
or there is any simple way
Dear praveen..There is no way to exactly find out that calls or puts are being written....from what i understand..we first see the open interest....when there is a huge open interest build up when nifty is moving up that means puts are being written..the same way around..when there is huge OI build up when nifty is falling means that calls are being written and puts are bought..this is how i see it...
---------------------------------------------------
Dear Praveen -
Just wanted to add to what PKamalesh has already mentioned.
In general , following observation holds , Markets going up oi build up (put writing) starts happening in near by out-of-money puts.. And vice versa , markets going down, oi build up (call writing) starts happening in near by out-of-money calls..... (Caveat ---- this is applicable by and large, not necessarily always...
.For eg:: last wed,thurs,fri - huge OI build up in 2500-Dec-Puts.... suggesting of a massive support at that level (Of course , if it gets taken out on the downside then ... mayhem as well as these same writers will run for cover.).
On this Fri when the markets moved up , you could see huge build in 2600 puts (both nov/dec) -- Indicating good amount of put writing at those levels.
Why do we say call/put writing..... well when there is a OI build up someone is buying and someone is writing. Without new sellers / writers the OI cannot go up , hence with OI increase/ writing is used.
One simple way to know the OI Changes for your own tracking :
NSE website updates the F&O Bhavcopy by 6:00pm. Download it. You will have all the options in excel sheet along with the OI.. Keep an eye on the nearby OTM Calls/puts OI.... or whichever strike price you are interested.
For example . On Fri Nifty (Not Nifty futures) closed at around 2698, so keep an eye on 2500,2600,2700 Puts & 2700,2800,2900 Calls (NOv/dec - as we are nearing expiry)
you can compare the live OI as reported in nse website or your brokers place with the downloaded excel sheet data and will get a fair idea.
It is really interesting to see the changes in OI during market hours and get a grasp of what the smart money is getting into.
Though cannot base trading nifty based solely on this knowledge though.......really good to be aware about this,
Hope this helps.
Regards
Inspire.
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