Guys... I have one very long observation, and one question.
Czar, Sat Da, Renu jee - You might recall my post from Sep 5 tinyurl*DOT*com/mysep5post in which we discussed about reaching 4220/4197, and where we differed was whether it would reach 4684 or thereabouts first (Sat Da's view) before going down. Since then Nifty traded at an intra-day high of 4558 on Sep 8, before retreating to the levels we saw today.
Sat Da: I did not follow the threads for the past few days, but I can see that you are in the short camp as well (catching up on past few days posts even as I write this). It seems where we differ, and I may be wrong, is in what's a fair downside target. Note that I am still long my 4200 PE but expect to close my position it out if/when Nifty reaches 4170 to 4220, somewhere in the range. Your analysis indicates the bottom falling out. I am veering toward your view looking at the high Nifty premium, which means the bulls haven't yet lost hope. I am now adding the Nifty premium as a secondary indicator - will go long/close out my put position, only once price target is reached, AND premium contracts sharply (from the current 18 odd points). Opinions?
Question: Have folks experimented with Fibonacci time projections and what's your opinion of them? I swear by Fib price levels, but have never used time tools. It would be helpful to have an idea of within what time frame our price objectives should play out; in case they don't, might want to consider an exit from a positional trade, instead of just relying on price targets.
Thanks - Ashish
Czar, Sat Da, Renu jee - You might recall my post from Sep 5 tinyurl*DOT*com/mysep5post in which we discussed about reaching 4220/4197, and where we differed was whether it would reach 4684 or thereabouts first (Sat Da's view) before going down. Since then Nifty traded at an intra-day high of 4558 on Sep 8, before retreating to the levels we saw today.
Sat Da: I did not follow the threads for the past few days, but I can see that you are in the short camp as well (catching up on past few days posts even as I write this). It seems where we differ, and I may be wrong, is in what's a fair downside target. Note that I am still long my 4200 PE but expect to close my position it out if/when Nifty reaches 4170 to 4220, somewhere in the range. Your analysis indicates the bottom falling out. I am veering toward your view looking at the high Nifty premium, which means the bulls haven't yet lost hope. I am now adding the Nifty premium as a secondary indicator - will go long/close out my put position, only once price target is reached, AND premium contracts sharply (from the current 18 odd points). Opinions?
Question: Have folks experimented with Fibonacci time projections and what's your opinion of them? I swear by Fib price levels, but have never used time tools. It would be helpful to have an idea of within what time frame our price objectives should play out; in case they don't, might want to consider an exit from a positional trade, instead of just relying on price targets.
Thanks - Ashish
