Nifty Futures Trading Part 2 (Positional)

[rishig38]

4270 will be broken in first wicket

now weekly be gone,,

coming to u satyajit da,, to kanya kumari on go to temples,,, for some,,, misdeed done

renu

renu, lets hope we build a setu and go to lanka, burn it and then come back in Pushpak plane to Ayodhya

 

[mitasatyajit]

4270 will be broken in first wicket

now weekly be gone,,

coming to u satyajit da,, to kanya kumari on go to temples,,, for some,,, misdeed done

renu

U r welcome Renu. Cheers. Sunil wickets r falling very rapidly from ur team.

 

[learn2trade08]

Dear parttimetrader,
i am a hughe fan of fib/gann as well and every trade is based on these 2...I too am very curious of time,i was trying to make some sense out of those today,but i guess i need more time...btw u posted that you want to be out of the trade at 4100 levels,i have some fib's drawn which indicate to 4100 as well,but a 161% is at 3900,also closer to the h&S targets....but again i am a bit confused as to why people were in a hurry to cover shorts at closing today...
Can you please post ur fib charts please as it would help me understand the system better
Sincerely appreciate your time.

Guys... I have one very long observation, and one question.

Czar, Sat Da, Renu jee - You might recall my post from Sep 5 tinyurl*DOT*com/mysep5post in which we discussed about reaching 4220/4197, and where we differed was whether it would reach 4684 or thereabouts first (Sat Da's view) before going down. Since then Nifty traded at an intra-day high of 4558 on Sep 8, before retreating to the levels we saw today.

Sat Da: I did not follow the threads for the past few days, but I can see that you are in the short camp as well (catching up on past few days posts even as I write this). It seems where we differ, and I may be wrong, is in what's a fair downside target. Note that I am still long my 4200 PE but expect to close my position it out if/when Nifty reaches 4170 to 4220, somewhere in the range. Your analysis indicates the bottom falling out. I am veering toward your view looking at the high Nifty premium, which means the bulls haven't yet lost hope. I am now adding the Nifty premium as a secondary indicator - will go long/close out my put position, only once price target is reached, AND premium contracts sharply (from the current 18 odd points). Opinions?

Question: Have folks experimented with Fibonacci time projections and what's your opinion of them? I swear by Fib price levels, but have never used time tools. It would be helpful to have an idea of within what time frame our price objectives should play out; in case they don't, might want to consider an exit from a positional trade, instead of just relying on price targets.

Thanks - Ashish

 

[rishig38]

U r welcome Renu. Cheers. Sunil wickets r falling very rapidly from ur team.

satya, even though our bowling is our strength and weather conditions are aiding swing bowling, but lets keep our fingers crossed...dow (our spinners) has to support us as well..it should at least close minimum 100 points down..then we can hope of a comprehensive victory..otherwise we may still win, but the match might be tightly contested...

 

[mitasatyajit]

Hi mitasatyajit
http://www.4 s h a r e d.com/dir/1089679/c50277ad/sharing.html
This link is not valid.

http://www.4 s h a r e d.com/dir/1945306/b41e3d61/Intraday_Future_data.html

Sorry try this one.

 

[renu daga]

no way i bet,,,

in one of my post much earlier i ha dposted unless dow crosses11700sucessfully we cannot hope for good move sin dow

and now its 11100.,,and unless it closses positive we are simply moving down to 4210 das previous support of 4195
kiss it again and craete double bottom..and further fal is 4100,,
def going pos short form tom

renu

 

[orderflow13]

important day for a positional trader,though i am not sure bulls & bears wait for monday,or battle begins tomorrow only.First hours will give some idea.
p.s. if any one check ril chart? it seems index hevy weight is very very weak on chart

 

[Sunil]

alex, these charts not only speak thousand words about nifty,
but also speak more than a thousand words about the hardwork & dedication with which you have copied, edited & posted these charts...

GOD BLESS YOU...

 

[parttimetrader]

Hi learn2trade

My data subscription is not yet active, so don't use any software for now - I temporarily draw trendlines online, and calculate approximate levels based on judgment. It works well for me for the most part.

The thesis I work with is that you can draw fibonacci levels within multiple frames, and use 50% as the most relevant figure. I should caution that I am a novice with this, so a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. What I do is very rough, but gives me some levels to work with, and then I can watch the market and superimpose my own judgment of market action close to these levels.

I looked at Nifty, and saw the drop from 5228 to 3817; once it started recovering, I targeted a 50% retracement - which yields 3817 + [(5228 - 3817) * 50%] = 4522 - this was achieved, but Nifty could not sustain above this level. Once the move down began, I would expect 50% of the upmove from 3817 to 4522 to be given up - this yields a target of 4522 - [(4522 - 3817) * 50%] = 4170. I would extend this target if Nifty doesn't recover from 4170, the target being 75% retracement, which would give 4522 - [(4522 - 3817) * 75%] = 3993.

I don't want to be caught short in case of a sharp bounce back up from 4170, even if it turns out to be false post-facto, so would rather close out shorts by 4170. Using 61% would give 4092, which is close to your 4100 level.

Tell me if I am doing something wrong.

 

[Sunil]

http://www.traderji.com/derivatives/23573-nifty-futures-trading-part-2-positional-55.html#post214186

well bro, i would put it this way: Short when it is near (your stop is known) and cover it using other indicators or at imp. support levels
KISS: Kindly Initiate Shorts Smartly

100DMA, as shown in above chart, is proving to be strong resistance level, and KISS strategy is proving to be quite profitable.

Now, we have also seen a few times recently that 50DMA is also providing some support in a falling market. Here we can adopt another strategy KILLS (Kindly Initiate Longs Lightly with Stop)..

So, using the above two moving averages, we have a good lethal strategy, as one gets an idea where to go short & where cover it & go long.

In short,

KISS KILLS