Nifty Futures Trading

[rajaram.dilipkumar]

Re: Time to Stick my Neck Out ,Nifty 7300

there is rising wedge on nifty 1 min although hourly still is bullish...

 

[Ajax]

Re: Is it Wolfe?

But for that we need price to come inside the resistence trendline once again, is not it?

YES, IF PRICE STAYS BELOW TRENDLINE A-C-E THAN GO SHORT WITH
HIGH OF POINT E AS SL.
PRICE HAS TO TRADE ABOVE A-C-E FOR THIS PATTERN TO BE NEGATED.

THATS WHY I AM OUT OF LONGS , BUT NOT GONE SHORT AS i DONT KNOW
WHAT WILL HAPPEN AFTER MARKET OPENS AT 12.30

AJAX

 

[milind]

Re: Time to Stick my Neck Out ,Nifty 7300

AJAX,

First a disclaimer that I am completely ignorant about this wolfe pattern.
However, seems to me that if you didn't have the first bar of the day today, it would have been different pattern. Now this first bar was a gap down based on global cues, and market realized 'mistake'(?) and quickly corrected it. Can you really form patterns based on intraday information spread over couple of days in a chart with significant gaps at the beginning of day?

-- Milind

 

[aca_trader]

Re: Is it Wolfe?

WELL, ASHISH, TO ME IT LOOKS BEARISH WOLFE. I AM OUT OF LONGS
CONSIDERING IMPLICATIONS & PAUSE IN TRADING TIME.

SHORT ENTRY WOULD BE RIGHT HERE AT POINT E .
HIGH OF POINT E IS STOP LOSS.
TARGET IS TOUCH DOWN TO RED LINE.

VERY VERY GOOD RISK REWARD RATIO FOR SHORTS

AJAX

That is how I designed my short entry as well but the logic was third touch of the broadening formation. I kept my short entry point as the low of long leg bar before the dozi bar(Third last bar in the chart). I did not short just below the dozi bar 'coz NIFTY underlying was hitting this resistence trendline for several bars which is usually a sign of impending breakout of the trendline.

However, there was a breakout thereafter and hence I started looking for longs above 4831(+5 points).

So for me, it's a poised case as of now in a poised market.

BTW, if the target of WW is achieved, we will have an hourly downtrend once again.

 

[aca_trader]

Re: Is it Wolfe?

YES, IF PRICE STAYS BELOW TRENDLINE A-C-E THAN GO SHORT WITH
HIGH OF POINT E AS SL.
PRICE HAS TO TRADE ABOVE A-C-E FOR THIS PATTERN TO BE NEGATED.

THATS WHY I AM OUT OF LONGS , BUT NOT GONE SHORT AS i DONT KNOW
WHAT WILL HAPPEN AFTER MARKET OPENS AT 12.30

AJAX

Price has already traded for 5 minutes above the trendline.
I agree that market re-opening may cause a reversal inside the trendline but there is equal probability of prices opening above the high of the day as well.

Regards,
--Ashish

 

[milind]

Re: Time to Stick my Neck Out ,Nifty 7300

So we got the higher pivot low on the hourly,that came in the form of a gap down,and now over yesterday's pivot high....

So,60 is in an uptrend as are all intradays,daily still downtrend......would be interesting to see if we get a strong rally here,or a tepid one that will only be the start of more down.......But all that is speculation,............for the Now,in the Now,we have a 60min uptrend,and we buy declines!

Raising Stops to below the low of the day.......to 4688.

Saint

Saint,

Can you please tell how one decides whether to carry a position overnight? I don't believe there is a good-till-cancel stop loss, and anyway a 100-150 point gap down will kill you anyway.

I asked a question on this forum last evening, but late, and decided to continue holding long position. That was partly based on global conditions at that time - which turned out to be miscues as of today AM. It would have been trouble for me if the market would have fallen as SGX Nifty indicated.

Thanks,

-- Milind

 

[Ajax]

Re: Time to Stick my Neck Out ,Nifty 7300

AJAX,

First a disclaimer that I am completely ignorant about this wolfe pattern.
However, seems to me that if you didn't have the first bar of the day today, it would have been different pattern. Now this first bar was a gap down based on global cues, and market realized 'mistake'(?) and quickly corrected it. Can you really form patterns based on intraday information spread over couple of days in a chart with significant gaps at the beginning of day?

-- Milind

IF UR HORIZON IS ONE TRADING SESSION ... WHAT U SAY IS RIGHT.

BROADEN IT TO 2 'TRADING DAYS' ( 5 min TRADING TIME INTERVAL, EXCLUDING 5 MIN INTERVALS OFF MARKET TIME) & MIND U
NOT 2 DAYS , THEN THIS IS VALID PATTERN.
SENTIMENTS PREVAILING DURING C-D LEG IS BUILT INTO THE SETUP
EVEN THOUGH IT APPEARS AS A GAP

LETS SEE

AJAX

AJAX

 

[myvineet]

Re: Time to Stick my Neck Out ,Nifty 7300

looks like market will open gap up ....hang seng in +ive after reopen ...

lets see

 

[Ajax]

Re: Is it Wolfe?

Price has already traded for 5 minutes above the trendline.
I agree that market re-opening may cause a reversal inside the trendline but there is equal probability of prices opening above the high of the day as well.

Regards,
--Ashish

THIS MARKET (COCKTAIL OF BULLS, BEARS, WOLVES, CATS, DOGS,PIGS ETC ETC) IS VERY SMART...
IT WILL HAVE ITS OWN WAY.
IF WE CAN CATCH DIRECTION.. GOOD.
IF NOT .. THERE IS ALWAYS STOP LOSS TO BAIL US OUT

AJAX

 

[aca_trader]

Re: Time to Stick my Neck Out ,Nifty 7300

Saint,

I don't believe there is a good-till-cancel stop loss, and anyway a 100-150 point gap down will kill you anyway.

-- Milind

I would leave the answer to the question to Saint but would like to comment on this particular aspect.

First of all, even if there is a GTC order facility, it'll trigger only when the market opens next day. If there is a huge gap down and market reverses, this order may get triggered at the low of the day as wll.

About a 100-150 point gap down, it's only 2-3% move which can be fairly expected in any market. If such a move can kill a trader then he seriously needs to revise his position size and leverage.

Now let's brianstorm a few scenarios.:-

What if there is a 10% Gap Down? Market filters would be triggered, trading will stop for 1 hour and most probably there will be a bounce back from that level.

What if market gaps down by 5%? The simple funda is to wait for the formation of 5 minute bar. If high of the first five minute bar is cut on the upper side, most probably gap will be filled up and one can exit with minimum losses. However, if the low is of that 5 min bar is violated, exit long and go short. One may make good his losses in the downward fall.

Hence, I would advise you to position size in such a manner that even if there is a 10% gap down, it wont kill you and will leave enough money on the table to pick up some nice entries.

Regards,
--Ashish