Nifty Futures Trading

[MurAtt]

BTW , i am little confused , is it same Nifty futures Trading thread which ashishda started and later on sunil sir lead the show

Quite true ....

 

[NOMINDTR]

Depends on Scalper , like not every trader is successful same not every not every scalper is not helping broker .

PS. i know many people who are earning well ahead of ewt analysts and flow traders by just scalping 4-5 trades

please go through this post http://www.traderji.com/day-trading/28472-how-much-we-need-earn-intraday-trading.html

this is also one kind of scalping

Scalping is more of an art itself; there are killer scalpers I know, it is easy to learn and difficult to master.

 

[MurAtt]

Strategy which I am trying to put together i.e. to make a profit without doing anything in between from start to end of expiry.

Sell
3500CE May is 160, 3500PE is 176 – so total premium recd is 336/-
(So we are covered till 3836 on the higher side and 3164 on the lower side. if naked shorts of the above)

Supposing mkt moves above or below these levels then just by this trade we are in deep trouble as losses will be huge above 3800 and below 3200 – therefore to protect ourselves from this,

Buy – 3400 PE @ 133 and 3600 CE @ 114 thereby decreasing our income by 247/-.

Ultimately our premium credit now arrives to 336 – 247 = 53+36 = 89 pts.

Now -
A. Say mkt expires at 3500 then
Total profit remains @ 89 credit premium.

B. Expires at 3600 then
89-100=11 pts loss

C. at 3700 then
3500CE = -200, 3600CE=+100, Premium credit = +89; Total = 11pts loss.

D. at 3800 then
3500CE = -300, 3600CE=+200, Premium credit = +89; Total = 11pts loss.

E. at 3900 then
3500CE = -400, 3600CE=+300, Premium credit = +89; Total = 11pts loss.

So wherever the mkts close at or above 3600, we are at loss of 11pts.

For the downside :
A. Say mkt expires at 3500 then
Total profit remains @ 89 credit premium.

B. Expires at 3400 then
89-100=11 pts loss

C. at 3300 then
3500PE = -200, 3400PE=+100, Premium credit = +89; Total = 11pts loss.

So wherever the mkts close at or below 3400, we are at loss of 11pts.


Conclusion :
If mkts close nearabout 3500 (which by itseff is wishful thinking), we are profiting 89pts on an investment of 1sold call and 1 sold put i.e. 2 lots Nifty which would come to approx Rs. 30000 and need some more for M2M, say 15000/-. The buy call and buy put would be paid from the premium recd.

i.e. 4500 on 50000 inv, comes to 9% ROI.

If mkts move otherwise then max loss is 11 pts or 550 Rs.


Now dear members,
1. Is this ROI good? Considering that we will NOT BE DOING ANYTHING AT ALL INBETWEEN.
2. Any flaws in the logical end result of the profit/loss generated, something which I may have missed and IS a silly mistake
3. A possibility of loss making means failure and does not give the end result I am looking at therefore would suggest members to give a suggestion to improve end result.

Wishful thinking
Another possibility is that say after 7-10 days, the premiums would have reduced and ending the trade there would result in a better profit and/or ROI, depends on the market at that point of time and the sentiments which make the premiums a bit wayward..

 

[parttimetrader]

Nifty Technical Analysis

Guys

Perhpas I've missed it, but I haven't seen any solid technical analysis of the Nifty on a positional basis of late... has that discussion moved elsewhere?

If not, has anybody analyzed (on a chart) where the market is and how to be 'positioned'?

e.g. what I do is a) determine if it is a trending or trading market (Nifty in this case), b-1) if it is trending, stay long/short in the direction of the trend, until the trend reverses or at least loses steam, b-2) if it is a non-trending market, then use oscillators to sell at the top end of the range, and buy at the low.

It doesn't need to be any more more complicated than that. Having said that, is there any analysis? I don't see any of the senior members - they are ALL missing.

W.r.t. the option strategy outlined, it was so complicated that my head was spinning. First you need to establish a view, and then implement it - Options is one way (leveraged) of implementing a complex view. A directional view is a simple view - a ranged view with time element involved is a complex view. So... to the poster... what is your view on the Nifty? On a more constructive note, the currently implied option volatility is low, and there is a lot of time left to expiry - which means that option buying is the favored strategy, because with option selling: 1) you won't eventually get to pocket high premiums unless you take a directional call which proves right, 2) the long time to expiry will ensure that time decay doesn't work in your favor if there is a swift move in the market, which could knock you out if you can't handle the MTM on the sold options. Think about it...

Thanks

PTT

 

[terminator_123]

Re: Nifty Technical Analysis

Guys

Perhpas I've missed it, but I haven't seen any solid technical analysis of the Nifty on a positional basis of late... has that discussion moved elsewhere?

If not, has anybody analyzed (on a chart) where the market is and how to be 'positioned'?

e.g. what I do is a) determine if it is a trending or trading market (Nifty in this case), b-1) if it is trending, stay long/short in the direction of the trend, until the trend reverses or at least loses steam, b-2) if it is a non-trending market, then use oscillators to sell at the top end of the range, and buy at the low.

It doesn't need to be any more more complicated than that. Having said that, is there any analysis? I don't see any of the senior members - they are ALL missing.

W.r.t. the option strategy outlined, it was so complicated that my head was spinning. First you need to establish a view, and then implement it - Options is one way (leveraged) of implementing a complex view. A directional view is a simple view - a ranged view with time element involved is a complex view. So... to the poster... what is your view on the Nifty? On a more constructive note, the currently implied option volatility is low, and there is a lot of time left to expiry - which means that option buying is the favored strategy, because with option selling: 1) you won't eventually get to pocket high premiums unless you take a directional call which proves right, 2) the long time to expiry will ensure that time decay doesn't work in your favor if there is a swift move in the market, which could knock you out if you can't handle the MTM on the sold options. Think about it...

Thanks

PTT

Yes.. nearly all of the older members are disappeared .. Donno what happened to sunil, l2t, mahesh and others...
This thread was meant to be for intraday I guess... positional discussion used to be in another thread which is now locked...

The strategy that murtaza was talking about seems to be a good one... basically its a combination of one bull spread and one bear spread...
some thing like this [<-|->]... if the option premium shoots up due to any reason, the corresponding options that we bought near the ends (3600ce and 3400pe) will shoot up to compensate I guess...

@SM... good one :thumb:

 

[metushar]

I guess the money required is a little different may be because of different brokers but a standard 15% of exposure amount is taken as margin money for Nifty. so 3500*100*0.15 = 52500 will be required atleast to take up the trade. (Have never shorted options though)

 

[praveen taneja]

I guess the money required is a little different may be because of different brokers but a standard 15% of exposure amount is taken as margin money for Nifty. so 3500*100*0.15 = 52500 will be required atleast to take up the trade. (Have never shorted options though)

that was really a good decision

 

[MurAtt]

Re: Nifty Technical Analysis

Guys

Perhpas I've missed it, but I haven't seen any solid technical analysis of the Nifty on a positional basis of late... has that discussion moved elsewhere?

If not, has anybody analyzed (on a chart) where the market is and how to be 'positioned'?

Thanks

PTT

I've been following elsewhere too and this is what I had got some time back.

And now an update ...

 

[columbus]

Re: Nifty Technical Analysis

Yes.. nearly all of the older members are disappeared .. Donno what happened to sunil, l2t, mahesh and others...
This thread was meant to be for intraday I guess... positional discussion used to be in another thread which is now locked...

The strategy that murtaza was talking about seems to be a good one... basically its a combination of one bull spread and one bear spread...
some thing like this [<-|->]... if the option premium shoots up due to any reason, the corresponding options that we bought near the ends (3600ce and 3400pe) will shoot up to compensate I guess...

@SM... good one :thumb:

Change of name ,often brings luck (ill-luck too) to persons.I believe Sunil and
L2T opted for change in name ,offered by Traderji recently.I feel L2T is very
much with traderji,posts occasionally with this NEW name.But it is hard to
believe that a person like SUNIL remain silent for so many days.He must be
posting in some other forum.

 

[pra]

keeping all global mkts sentiment in mind, mkts have potential to test 3850 level but tradionally may series witnessed wild swings particularly downside. So. if pivot 3520 (safe 3540) spot nifty crossed deceissively then inititate fresh long for the target of 3850 & used 3510 spot your Stop loss better if nifty maintaind upward journey to test above target without major pullback in near term then book full profit around 3800--30 level & initiate fresh short from there for the target of 3520 minimum. Strategy will different if nifty hesitate around 3650-3750 zone. At that time , i will update my view for your reference.Again, keep it in mind historically may series witnessed wild swings particularly downside.

Happy trading

Pra