Nifty Futures Trading

[rajaram.dilipkumar]

even within the family there are two views .... my brother bought 3800 puts but i hold 4500 call .... anything can happen before this expiry . Will have to come up with a good option strategy tonight

 

[mahesh2007]

market rose on short covering,FII and DII both are net sellers today.

 

[Sunil]

even within the family there are two views .... my brother bought 3800 puts but i hold 4500 call .... anything can happen before this expiry . Will have to come up with a good option strategy tonight

actually, even I am confused...

Global markets are also in an uptrend. If the Govt. wins the trust vote, then I don't see much upside above 4300-4350 zone. (SPOT 4315 is a good gap resistance). Also it has been rallying since 3800. At 4300, 500 points (13%)are already gained in one wave. But, yes, we can then expect a 4100+ expiry, after a bit cooling, assuming that oil & global markets are supportive... (If 4315 is crossed comfortably, then 4450/4500 is on cards, but again 8 days to expiry left, and last week is usually the reverse of what has been going on during the majority of the month - rollover effect)

If the Govt. does not win trust vote, then a dip to 3950/3900 is on cards. But, here again, I dont see much downside...

IN BOTH CASES, I AM ASSUMING THAT GLOBAL MARKETS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN AN UPTREND ATLEAST IN THIS WEEK.
AND SO, IN BOTH CASES, I SEE AN EXPIRY NEAR THE CURRENT 4100 LEVELS.

So, as of now, I have decided to do nothing for Wednesday's Gap open, but if Gap up, I will look to short at 4300/4315 SPOT level,
and if Gap down, then I will look to buy at around 3950 SPOT level.

Tomorrow's last hour trading will give a cue...

 

[Sunil]

I have seen that in bull markets, good news generally comes near supports,
whereas in bear markets, bad news generally come near resistances.

Today, SPOT closed at 4160. If tomorrow, it seem to close at around 4250 level, then I will buy a deep OTM PUT (maybe 3900 PUT) at close. (assuming 4315 is going to be a good gap resistance, and govt will not win trust vote).

I was watching the poitical circus today evening - it seems no party opposes to Nuclear deal - all, incl Congress, would desire to have some changes in its terms & conditions. Trust vote is just because Left has withdrawn support, and opposition demands majority proof from ruling govt.

That's why, I feel that even if the govt wins, not much difference / gain will arise; elections to waise bhi hona hi hain, ab nahi to 2009 main... but yes, if it looses, then all reforms, etc will be put on hold... what else do bears want ??

When UPA had come to power in May 2004, there was a down circuit in the market - reason, change in govt = change in policies too. And if UPA looses tomorrow, then there will be elections soon, and given the prevailing common man's mood, UPA will find it very tough to win again...



But, as I said in my previous post, tomorrow's last hour trading will be important for cues...

 

[Sunil]

in short,

if wins Trust vote, not much upside - infact short at higher level

if looses Trust vote, more problem (maybe a retest of lows)

net net... i will be ready to short/buy put

 

[Laksh]

.0002% brokerage?????????????? That means Rs.1 Brokerage per 500,000 Trade Value?
Really Amazing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
How much u trade per day?

Sorry for the miscalculation. It's not the brokerage. It is the reduction in the brokerage. Orginally it was 5p/Rs.100 ie 0.05%. Now it is 3p/Rs.100 ie 0.03%.

Thanks for pointing out.

Laksh

 

[columbus]

Thanks sir,
I will serach that page and let you know.I am using IE.

You can use an utility YREFRESHER if you are using IE.

 

[rajaram.dilipkumar]

just my opinion ....
we all trade with fixed views in mind but that rigidity should not dictate terms when we trade ...... inspite of this prevailing sentiment the market has not closed below 4002 in weekly which i consider as a key pivot so we cant be extremely bearish .... at the same time we have cracked 40 % from the top so we cant be bullish as well. The market may rally upto 10000 or go to 0 but flexibility in the way we think ,which in turn is dictated by charts, is all that matters..the market right now is at 4150 ,bang in the middle of 3800 and 4500,and lets focus our energy on a strategy that could deal with this volatility that we are likely to witness ..personally i have lightened my positions on longer side but no shorts as yet . Will look at option stategies and will look to go long on select stocks which are close to a good b/o with tight s/ls ...

 

[milkyblack]

just my opinion ....
we all trade with fixed views in mind but that rigidity should not dictate terms when we trade ...... inspite of this prevailing sentiment the market has not closed below 4002 in weekly which i consider as a key pivot so we cant be extremely bearish .... at the same time we have cracked 40 % from the top so we cant be bullish as well. The market may rally upto 10000 or go to 0 but flexibility in the way we think ,which in turn is dictated by charts, is all that matters..the market right now is at 4150 ,bang in the middle of 3800 and 4500,and lets focus our energy on a strategy that could deal with this volatility that we are likely to witness ..personally i have lightened my positions on longer side but no shorts as yet . Will look at option stategies and will look to go long on select stocks which are close to a good b/o with tight s/ls ...

Nice to read your post... Taking the possibility that anything can happen in the market... rather thinking only this can happen!

Regards

 

[Sunil]

shorted at 4200 spot...
covrd majority at 4180 spot