Nifty Intraday Pivot Points

[4xpipcounter]

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The accompanied chart is a candle lover's paradise. I don't trade using candles, because as you know my forecast was made before the candle is formed. The candle is a huge bullish engulfing candle, and candle enthusiasts will say that is a sign of a reversal.

There are also some other signs the UP has begun.
I did mention there was room for a move to my DS2 at 5179. We had a spike on the other side of it to 5171, but the hourly candle finished above the DS2.
Afterward we got the move above the WS2 at 5277, and then on the other side of my DR3 at 5294, which is what I said to look for.
It was a picture perfect day for my S&R's, the ichimoku cloud, and for the candle people.
The next level to look for is a daily close above the kijun at 5383. That will be an additional strong support for price action. Afterward, look for 5418. At that point, you should see a strong bull candle passing through that point. The MR1 at 5666, which is the circa area of the tenken, should be strong R.
From this point, we don't know the entire nature of the move, so it is hard to say exactly where the reversal will be. The route I explained and 5666 are on the radar.

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I wanted to update this post. Ichimoku is dynamic. At the time of this post I'm quoting, the top of the cloud was 5135. It is now 5222, which means on Thursday it was hit. Now, we are ready for a reversal.
It is always allowable for a spike into the cloud, but to expect a close in that Tf above the cloud. Namely, Friday is the end of the week, so Friday should close above 5222.
What we can expect is an acceleration once price gets beyond the current WS2 at 5277. That will be confirmation that a dip has been formed.
I will post next week's S&R's around 3:30am EST, but for now, the dailies should be very helpful for Friday: 5294, 5260, 5240, 5199, 5179, 5145. There is room on the 4-hour chart for the move to continue to the DS2 at 5179, but there is nothing to say it has to do that.
Here's something else to look for I mentioned if 5277 is broken, then the dip is formed. Needless to say, if that does happen then Friday will hit the DR3 at 5294, and it could also be broken. If that does happen, then what will not happen on Monday is the DR3 getting hit again. (That does not mean we will not get a bull candle on Monday.) From the time I conceived my S&R's in 2007, there has never been a time when the 3's were hit in back-to-back time frames.
Okay, there you have it. That should be a nice road on your Nifty journey. Happy traveling!

 

[timepass]

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.............

I know nothing about the charts, and there are many who aren't as sure about the upmove as you are, so could you add "on the other hand" please?

 

[4xpipcounter]

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Timepass, LOL, many may have thought I was nuts when I said that while price was close to 6000 that we are headed to where we are now.
I accompanied the weekly chart which is the main impetus behind the forecast. The ichimoku is the cornerstone of my methodology. What makes it so incredible is its ability to be able to forsee, since the fall began, the point of reversal. Once there has been a long drop, and then it finally meets up with the cloud, count on it! The cloud is going to be strong support. Also, the cloud is still bullish as you look into the future. We could have a move to 5831, and according to the cloud, it would just be a normal correction. Whether we have a "normal correction" remains to be seen, but it could almost be expected.
All moves take on certain personalities. It was quite evident of the strong drop, because of the tri-fecta (daily,weekly, and monthly charts extreme OB). This is why I so boldly mentioned the drop. The one thing about this impending reversal that I have been bold about is....well, the reversal. It's obvious what will happen with regards to TL's, and that is a strong move on the other side. Once the R's are broken through, then the question will be what kind of route the market will take from there. Obviously, the daily and weekly are on the side of the UP. The problem is the monthly is saying, "I still need to go south!" So, what we now see is rather than the "Big 3" having agreement, the monthly has different ideas. The obviations now favor the weekly and daily. I would say the move will continue north for at least 2 weeks. Afterward, we need to take a look at the whole picture to determine the route after that.
Also, you will never see my S&R's on anyone's charts, because they come from my proprietary formula, and someone made a software of them for me. I'm always glad to give the respective levels. I mentioned that, because it is a target we need, rather than just time. My MR1 is 5666, which should be an easy target. As you can tell by the chart the tenken is just above it, so it could be a decision point.
I know. My charts are some of the ugliest on any forum. They are just effective--lol.

I know nothing about the charts, and there are many who aren't as sure about the upmove as you are, so could you add "on the other hand" please?

 

[4xpipcounter]

Jagankris, you're not dumb. You needed an answer to a question, so you asked it. You never receive until you ask.
The formula for calculating the parabolic S&R is at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parabolic_SAR.
The inventor of the indicator, I believe his name is Oscar Wilde (Someone correct me if I am wrong.) readily admitted the parabolic S&R is not of much use in sideways markets, and that it only works in trending markets.
Nifty's drop to 5190 was quite evident. You didn't need the parabolic SAR to indicate the immensity of this drop.
Constructively, I'm not a big fan of this indicator:
1. This indicator has no way of indicating a sideways market or one that is about to trend. Therefore, if you use it in not knowing the market has gone east, then you will get stopped out with many losing trades, before you find the one winning trade.
2. It has no way of indicating the immensity of a proposed trend. I've heard many people say, "I'll wait until 3 candles (Just an example.) to get in the trade." Little did they know the trend lasted 4 candles, and they were stopped out on the 5ht candle.
3. Some of your biggest candles in a trend are seen at the very beginning or the very end. The parabolic SAR will not flip until the trend is confirmed, so you missed the biggest candle of the trend. When the trend is near the end, and you might get that last huge candle in the trend, many times the following candle has corrected most of that final move, but you are still in the trade because your SAR said so.
4. It can also give fits in volatile markets. In other words, the type of moves that give you a strong one-way move, then a strong one-way reversal

I was noting it one of my trades I have up, which is the EUR/GBP. The parabolic SAR would have flipped me around like a rag doll. I believe a methodology needs to pinpoint, in advance, where the market is headed. Once that determination has been made, jump in, hold on, and be patient.

Dear SG ji and Friends,

Sorry for being dumb for I never traded pivot points and after a long time happened to visit this thread .

This is a intraday as well as positional system

Could any any one please explain in detail how to derive the SAR,trailing S/L point and also Rules to trade the same.

Nifty has closed today below the SAR of 5636 and hence short will be created.Continue to trade intraday as per the pivots but the position should be carried over should be in short side till it trades below 5636.Please confirm if my understanding is correct.

TIA.

Best regards,
JK

 

[MurAtt]

The inventor of the indicator, I believe his name is Oscar Wilde (Someone correct me if I am wrong.)

Oscar Wilde !!!!!!! My my .. ...

Yes you are wrong my dear .. not by a mere 4pips .. but by a huge margin of 40 pips !!!!!

Oscar Fingal O'Flahertie Wills Wilde (16 October 1854 – 30 November 1900) was an Irish writer and poet.

Source : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oscar_Wilde

And .. yes .. not much off the mark though in terms of the name Mr 4pips

This method was developed by J. Wells Wilder.

Source: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/parabolicindicator.asp

 

[4xpipcounter]

No better one could have corrected me. You definitely have a different way of answering.
BTW, I call me 4pips to give me the benefit of the doubt.
Now this whole forum knows I was off by 40 pips instead.
THanks for setting the record straight.

Oscar Wilde !!!!!!! My my .. ...

Yes you are wrong my dear .. not by a mere 4pips .. but by a huge margin of 40 pips !!!!!

Source : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oscar_Wilde

And .. yes .. not much off the mark though in terms of the name Mr 4pips

This method was developed by J. Wells Wilder.

Source: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/parabolicindicator.asp

 

[lancer]

Hi, a great job done on Friday TA along with your predictions of a dip from 6000 level. Could you please post the daily, weekly and monthly support and resistance levels with your observations on Ichimoku dynamics ? This system is a little understood one in this forum. Wish you could share it with us as it seems not to have generated any false positive signals since 2007 on trading platform.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Lancer, I'll be happy to. The only thing is I don't give the dailies unless we are in a unique situation like we were on Friday. My software computes my levels for me as an acquaintance was good enough to make the program for me. So instead of figuring them anymore, the indicator is plugged on my chart, and I take them straight off my chart. The weeklies are actually available at 11:00pm GMT Sunday, but I live in the US and am in church at that time, so they are posted around 3:30am GMT Monday.
The monthlies are best viewed on the 4-hour chart:
6224, 5879, 5667, 5242, 5028, 4679--I am looking for at least the MR1 at 5667 to be hit.

My analysis:
Last week the pair finished off a very powerful move to the south. As expected the weekly top of the cloud acted as strong support. The 4-hour and daily charts are now very OS and are hinting at a very strong move north. To start the week, I am looking for this market to continue its move north, but the next level to look for is the circa area of 5372, the daily TL. I believe the low is in place at least until this UP has completed, so even in the event of a bounce off the TL, it shouldn't take a long time for the market to recover and head back UP. We are in for a bull candle this week, and it should be strong. A firm break of 5372 accentuates the move, and puts the focus on the daily kijun at 5676, which is the crica area of the MR1 at 5667.

Hi, a great job done on Friday TA. Could you please post the daily, weekly and monthly support and resistance levels with your observations on Ichimoku dynamics ? This system is a little understood one in this forum. Wish you could share it with us as it seems not to have generated any false positive signals since 2007 on trading platform.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Weekly S&R's--Nifty 021311

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If we get a daily close at current level--5368, this market will take off quicker than it started. This is a very key area. I wanted to post the chart so the strong R could be seen on the daily. When that level gets broken, price will move fast. Watch for it!
LOL--Stocks Murtaza, you gotta love these levels. They're not even off by 4 pips.

Read left-to-right WR3--WS3:
5583, 5458, 5381, 5232, 5157, 5032

WR1 was already hit at 5381. The market is off to a strong start for the week.

 

[MurAtt]

WR2 hit.

Now awaiting WR3