Nifty Open Interest Analysis
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Date: 26-Oct-2012
First day of trade and all the pent up negative bias looked like opening up.
Dont get fooled by the trade though... looks like smart money is buying cheap out of money puts as hedges for a long trade going ahead.Reason being, 5200 Puts were traded heavily.
As explained in yesterdays post.. keep a watch at 5670 futures price, the level at which FII's have taken maximum longs... this was held up in todays trade
On options side, Keep a watch on 5600PE. If you see unwinding happening, then we might have a quick downturn going ahead
First day of trade and all the pent up negative bias looked like opening up.
Dont get fooled by the trade though... looks like smart money is buying cheap out of money puts as hedges for a long trade going ahead.Reason being, 5200 Puts were traded heavily.
As explained in yesterdays post.. keep a watch at 5670 futures price, the level at which FII's have taken maximum longs... this was held up in todays trade
On options side, Keep a watch on 5600PE. If you see unwinding happening, then we might have a quick downturn going ahead
Last edited:
Date : Oct 29 2012
A nothing day in trade... this has been going on for 15 days now which has resulted in Vix coming to a 5 year low of 14. Is this the first signs of Bears giving up?
Option data indicates unwinding (albeit small qty) in 5600 CE.
FII data indicates longs have been liquidated. RBI data looks like the catalyst needed for market to break free from this trading range.
Take trade after announcement of policy
A nothing day in trade... this has been going on for 15 days now which has resulted in Vix coming to a 5 year low of 14. Is this the first signs of Bears giving up?
Option data indicates unwinding (albeit small qty) in 5600 CE.
FII data indicates longs have been liquidated. RBI data looks like the catalyst needed for market to break free from this trading range.
Take trade after announcement of policy
Date : Oct 30th 2012
We said yesterday, Trade after announcement. You could have still made 30-40 odd points safely. This is the 3rd time in succession that charts have shown spike up before RBI announcement only to close at lows of session
On Options side, Bears have taken control of Calls, writing was seen in 5600,5700,5800 with 5700 looking to be upside cap
Bulls have given up on puts through unwinding seen in 5700 and 5800. Tomorrow its vital to see if 5600 put sees unwinding. If so, then we are in a serious downturn
On Futures side, FII's have taken fresh shorts
Net buying was seen in the last three days in Option Buying. So expect to see a trend coming in shortly.
Sell on rise till 5690 is not broken on a closing basis..
We said yesterday, Trade after announcement. You could have still made 30-40 odd points safely. This is the 3rd time in succession that charts have shown spike up before RBI announcement only to close at lows of session
On Options side, Bears have taken control of Calls, writing was seen in 5600,5700,5800 with 5700 looking to be upside cap
Bulls have given up on puts through unwinding seen in 5700 and 5800. Tomorrow its vital to see if 5600 put sees unwinding. If so, then we are in a serious downturn
On Futures side, FII's have taken fresh shorts
Net buying was seen in the last three days in Option Buying. So expect to see a trend coming in shortly.
Sell on rise till 5690 is not broken on a closing basis..
DAte: 31st oct 2012
Well yesterday we said sell on rise... today it presented the perfect opportunity.
5700PE continues to unwind, 5700,5800Ce continues to get written
Only respite for bulls is the 5600PE still holding on... unwinding still not seen
On Futures side, shorts got covered today indicating a weak upward bias
Short on till 5680 does not get breached on a closing basis
Well yesterday we said sell on rise... today it presented the perfect opportunity.
5700PE continues to unwind, 5700,5800Ce continues to get written
Only respite for bulls is the 5600PE still holding on... unwinding still not seen
On Futures side, shorts got covered today indicating a weak upward bias
Short on till 5680 does not get breached on a closing basis
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