NIFTY Options Trading by RAJ

[healthraj]

Raj, Few posts back you mentioned about positional v/s intraday option trading. Obviously these 250 points we can't expect happening intraday on a regular basis. What time span should one keep in mind while trading for such targets. And what should be the sl in such cases?

Technically speaking no Timespan is required. But you can keep a overall Stoploss on the Premium depending on your Risk Reward structure.

For Strangles and Straddles, VOLT is very important. So also keep a watch on IV or the INDIAVIX. IV stand for Implied Volatility (and not India VIX)

 

[healthraj]

INDIAVIX is Trending UP. 30.9 did not Break which was a confirmation that no further UP side. Now We have to see what happens at 32.66.

VIX has broken 32.66

INDIAVIX seems to be making a double Top at 33. If VIX goes below 30.9 then it will go Straight to 26, which would be a 16% down in VOLT. And the market can goto 5750 - 5800 Levels. So Please keep a watch in VIX and the 30.9 Level.

If it breaks 33 decisively then it can go once again to 36 and test 5250 or 5000 Levels, Which I don't think it will happen looking at the VIX Chart pattern

Just my opinion based on VIX.

Looking at the Options Data, 5300 seems to be having the Magic OI of more than 70L, so which would be difficult to break and which is also strengthened in the last two days and market also tested 5320 Today 8L positions added, Which should be Short positions.

In the morning only 5500 had around 42L. Today EOD 5700CE also having 41.5L. When the market is around 5450 and 4.2L positions getting added to 5700 should be Long positions. From a overall OI perspective also PE has 5C and CE has 3.4C. If the Market goes UP and if the VOLT drops then the Short holders in Puts would be making a fortune.

One important question, I was asking in the last two days, Why there are not much positions in 5500CE, 5600CE and 5700CE. The answer could be that it would be made when the market is near the high of 5800. Until such time only Long positions would be added. So this market which had so much negativity in the AUG-13 is looking to go UP side.

Looking at the World indices also, all are making a double bottom and getting ready to make new Highs.

There are lot of Positional Traders waiting for the market to break 5525 levels and they will all board the express and the next stop will 5625. So for that first the 5460 need to be broken decisively.

One more point is the MAX Pain. The MAX Pain is still at 5500. The MAXimum pain would be caused only when the market is able to swallow both the Put and the Call holders. If the market makes a Top of 5750, The put holders will be washed away. And after making 5750, if the market closes at 5500 then the Call holders will also be gone. This is my third month with the MAX Pain research. So far it has worked in the last two months. Let us see if it works this month also.

I am anyway holding both the Puts and Calls bought at 5450. So All I want is that the market should make either 5200 or 5700

 

[niftytaurus]

Hi
5700 CE Quoting at 52 & 5100 pe is quoting at 70...both points are approximate 250 points away from today closing...
overall intermediate trend & long trend is down...what all news are coming nw a days...its also pessimistic..ppl are more pesimistic ...people are buying more put..If We think from the point of view of big option sellers....if market rise till 5700...all put price wil go away..they will benefit from it....now ppl will run for call..but till then up game will be finished & . obviously, market doesnt have any fundamental or technical strength to rise much... but till then enough call position will have made ... now it will go down with its own weight..now call position is in loss..but option sellers are happy...so the max pain theory can be true this month also...
declaration;- this is just my view by my analytical skill..its not a try to predict market..bcoz i know it cant be..& I am not a experienced trader..just trying to learn from seniors here...& express my views so i may improve...
I only buy options....so i always put myself at place of option sellers & think....If I were a option seller..what all would have I done to defeat option buyers..& then I think from point of view of option sellers...i think option seller only motive to think how to max money involved options will be expired....

 

[appajib]

Raj,
is there any method to calculate india vix

 

[niftytaurus]

Those who are Yet to Trade can confidently GO Short below 5431 SPOT or Go LONG above 5484 SPOT

.

Hi RAJ
this 5430 level is perfect...it worked very well ..i did profit from it..but could u please explain what technique you did u apply to calculate that level..i want to learn....

2) after 2 pm..what u predict that down movement is stopped & it would go up ...how did u predict this also..please share...I mean what technique of ta?

sorry for this stupid question..but I am novice & I would like to learn..
thanks

 

[healthraj]

Raj,
is there any method to calculate india vix

It is an Index like NIFTY or BANKNIFTY. You can find the values in NSEIndia.com. If you are using my MTP tool, You can find the levels using the code INDIAVIX.

 

[healthraj]

Hi RAJ
this 5430 level is perfect...it worked very well ..i did profit from it..but could u please explain what technique you did u apply to calculate that level..i want to learn....

2) after 2 pm..what u predict that down movement is stopped & it would go up ...how did u predict this also..please share...I mean what technique of ta?

sorry for this stupid question..but I am novice & I would like to learn..
thanks

From my MTP tool based on the FLOW method

 

[healthraj]

When you folks are Free, Just look at the Daily and Weekly charts from Jan-12to till now. You will see one image from Jan-12 to May-13. And From May-13 to till now it is a mirror image. We also have Doji formation in the last two weeks (Meaning the closing is 5500 and not 5100 or 5250). So if the pattern needs to repeat then the market needs to goto 5800 and from there goto 4800. It is just for information so that we need to be prepared to expect the unexpected and not to put any perception. I am only saying that the market can also goto 5800 from here. So do not over bearish or over bullish.

 

[sanjeev258380]

yeah raj is that chances of change in max pain in a month...
Like how many times it can change.
like last month in aug..max pain changed b/w 5500-5400-- last expired at 5409..making all calls above and below puts zero..

Raj can u share your modified OAT sheet.. for 50-50 strikes and mtp tool included in it. It will be great help.

 

[Option.Trader]

When you folks are Free, Just look at the Daily and Weekly charts from Jan-12to till now. You will see one image from Jan-12 to May-13. And From May-13 to till now it is a mirror image. We also have Doji formation in the last two weeks (Meaning the closing is 5500 and not 5100 or 5250). So if the pattern needs to repeat then the market needs to goto 5800 and from there goto 4800. It is just for information so that we need to be prepared to expect the unexpected and not to put any perception. I am only saying that the market can also goto 5800 from here. So do not over bearish or over bullish.

Would be interesting to see how much % of trade in Indian markets is currently under Algo .. gives me a strong suspicion that most of the volatility is caused by them.. there is a spike and trade is defined... SR levels are text book style.. why would i want to dwell into this?.. If we know this to be true, then we could increase the probability of trades by joining the party..